I would agree the long term hiring outlook is great, a generational cycle mainly because the last boom was concentrated in age range and they’re all retiring. Plus plenty were hired in the 90s that were in their 35-45 range and now about to go. But, black swans still happen and don’t underestimate the power of politicians to make things worse. We just might duck this one, but it’s early.

GF

It is my hope that this downturn will be brief, perhaps a few months and America will get back to business and back to travel. If the recovery is quick, perhaps this will only be a small bump, but I also think its difficult to forecast how this will play out. Certainly the up and coming retirements are not going to change, so that is still looming. I don't think it is the end of the world and believe there will be many opportunities and seats to fill. But we may experience a delay to get back to where we have been for the past few years.

The timing of this sucks for anyone who just got hired or who was about to be hired.

For everyone still building time, it doesn’t matter as much. It could even be a good thing.

For example I have been thinking to switch over to the regionals next fall. If the airlines don’t hire for 6 months and then things pick back up in the fall, I might get hired and share seniority with people who hit their minimums 6 months before me.

The hiring freeze is temporary, but this event is a good reminder to be ready to submit the application when the good times start rolling again

I remember being a freshly minted CFI standing around our dispatch office unable to fly after 9/11. It took a couple of days for the shock to wear off and I finally had the thought that this might have a significant negative effect on our careers.

The lost decade followed.

To be fair, that was largely because of age 65 and 2008.

And also due to the inevitable and long-deferred shakeouts from de-regulation decades before. The industry is much tighter today, and is organized as lean businesses, vice the sloppy public utilities of the old days.

Self funded training...
Self funded training...
Self funded training...

If you can’t pay for training you’re not wanting it bad enough.

If this scares off the less passionate, so be it. There might be a bigger need for new pilots in the future because of it. Then those who chose to pursue flying regardless will be more of as asset a couple years from today.

I just heard that at American, they will be offering early retirement options to those at or above age 62. So that will accelerate some of the retirements and open up more seats for newcomers. There may be some upsides to this whole virus thing. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

Anyone here want to attempt to be a prognosticator? Are we looking at a brief setback (3-6 months)? Or is this longer term (1 to 3 years)? Or even longer?

It's unrealistic for most people to be able to afford $75k+ worth of training... especially for those under the age of 30.