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Aspiring pilots, we may be effed for a while

Old 04-11-2020, 12:18 PM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Sounds reasonable to me. Nothing's for certain though until we see how COVID plays out this year, and what the vax timeline is.
Vax doesn’t really matter. If we get it, it’s a plus, but if we don’t we’ll have herd immunity as a society just from all the people that will get this. All the business shutdowns are economically unsustainable and if they go past July will do more harm than good. We will be in full-on recovery DOMESTICALLY by Fall. I agree that business travel will likely take a long term 20-25% hit and the legacies will be a lot longer spooling up their international flying. But the general public is approaching a limit to their tolerance for the shutdown. You can only keep up the scare for so long. Eventually people adapt and cease to give a damn. We will soon be approaching that point IMHO.
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Old 04-12-2020, 12:49 PM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by DontLookDown View Post
I think a lot of pilots over 60 will exit the industry this year instead of waiting to get forced out.

Recently hired regional pilots, career changers and college students just got a dose of reality and may stick to flying as a hobby.

A lot of military pilots that were looking to take early retirements and switch to civilian flying are going to be changing their minds.

I think it’s realistic that regionals will be hiring in 2 years. I just hope hiring bonuses and paid ATP training doesn’t go away, but I’m not going to hold my breath on that.
You have to remember that the large sign on bonuses at the regionals are more of a recent anomaly (2015/16-present) than the norm. I would bet my entire paycheck that those will be going away for quite awhile. If history is any indicator, once hiring resumes the backlog of pilots trying to get hired at an entry level 121 gig will be significant.
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Old 04-12-2020, 03:08 PM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by lbell View Post
Having gone thru the late 90's downturn, 9-11, 2008 Economy Dump, Colgan Air Crash (implementation of 1500 hr rule), Merger-Mainia, SARS, and now COVID-19...I have learned the aviation industry ups & downs are like a pendulum on a Grandfather Clock that repeats itself every 10 years.



With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.



The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing



Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).



Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.



Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.



By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.



Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.



Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.
God do I hope you're right. For everybody's sake
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Old 04-14-2020, 06:07 PM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by kettlechips View Post
God do I hope you're right. For everybody's sake
Oh he is! History is an undeniable proof that life goes in circle following very specific patterns and we are currently at the end of a major loop (referring to the boomers gen on their last few miles before retirement) . It blows for those that caught the tail because the cold truth is they probably wasted a couple years grinding hard on ****ty incomes all in vain, but I'm confident that the new crop of pilots currently in training will be just in time to catch the inevitable upcoming hiring wave and they will go up in rank much faster than people have in a very long time!

Furthermore, this is not an "aviation" only thing, it's pretty much the case with every work fields, the old hard working generation is about to call it quits and the young generations aren't really inclined to work in general, in most cases they do the strict minimum on the job. On the other hand, those that are willing to grind and hone their current/new skills will easily be able to secure themselves great jobs and a much more comfortable lifestyle than the average.
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Old 04-15-2020, 05:50 AM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by Deesan View Post
the old hard working generation is about to call it quits and the young generations aren't really inclined to work in general, in most cases they do the strict minimum on the job. On the other hand, those that are willing to grind and hone their current/new skills will easily be able to secure themselves great jobs and a much more comfortable lifestyle than the average.
As an airline pilot there is no “grinding it out” to work harder than your peers and move up.

You do the strict minimum on the job- show up on time, get your passengers where they need to be safely and abide by the rules.

Anything in excess of that won’t help you gain seniority.
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Old 04-15-2020, 06:07 AM
  #76  
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Originally Posted by DontLookDown View Post
As an airline pilot there is no “grinding it out” to work harder than your peers and move up.

You do the strict minimum on the job- show up on time, get your passengers where they need to be safely and abide by the rules.

Anything in excess of that won’t help you gain seniority.
Not entirely true. Some of the resume differentiators do require some hustle, networking at the very least. If you want to get instructor jobs at a regional (historically the gold standard to break out of the herd) you need to maintain a good attendance record, pass all training events, and stay out of trouble... that does actually require some effort.

Until you get your career-destination job, you're always subject to career damaging/ending incidents... you can't prevent those in all cases but study and preparation, knowing memory items, reading NOTAMs, etc can go a long ways.

General aviation and the regionals do actually tend to provide opportunities for slackers to acquire career-altering "issues". It takes some effort to navigate that minefield.
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