Pilot Shortage is over?
 

Some companies closing, others firing....

What you guys think?

Was it ever more than FOMO pushed by flight schools/people
who have an interest in suppressing wages?

For now. But there will be a lot of incentivized early retirements now (plus guys just saying "eff this"), a big surge in recovery could cause another demand wave 2-8 years down the road (3-6 is the most likely window IMO). Nature of the industry, feast or famine although the best jobs will always be selective.

Just never be near the bottom of a seniority list in a year that ends in zero, works every time.


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Oddly enough...

Although this one may redefine “near the bottom.” Before this I was cavalier with my use of “furlough proof” number. If the axe falls, I deserve my fate.


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Here is what a guy from another forum said:

"Well, Delta just announced retiring the whole 777 fleet and closing CVG as a pilot base.
Saying 2500-3500 overmanned Fall 2021 even factoring in mandatory retirements.
I'm XXXX off the bottom."

So of course he is preparing to be furloughed.
If what he is hearing is true, that is a bunch of qualified pilots on the street from just one major carrier.

If it were the same from UAL where my friend who has been onboard for 5 years and feels that he too will be furloughed come Oct 1st....add that similar number in the pool?

And these boards lead me to believe that AAL might be the hardest hit? I don't know....but what if they put a similar number of people on the hit (or more)?

Regionals - already hard hit with two (?) having closed up shop already. Future predictions? How many more on the street. All airlines seem to be talking about coming out the backside of this "smaller".

I don't remember the airline world very well after 9/11. I was still firmly in active duty mindset and was concentrating on the upcoming deployments we knew were coming; so I don't remember the impact that 9/11 seem to have on the industry or for how long those ramifications affected the industry or how long the recovery is thought to have taken to 'get back to normal'
My question to those that were around and endured that particular aftermath --how long did effects linger. In my mind that was a singular incident, nevermind how horrible, but this impact seems to have much longer legs and could be happening over and over and over; how can these this dam breaking not have hysteria continue to impact the industry for much longer than 9/11?

Does the industry - those that went through both - think that this time will be even more impactful than 9/11, and maybe even the economic downturn of 2008 combined?

Pilot shortage over? Severely stunted at least?
I don't know, but it isn't what it was.

I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Trying my best to send good thoughts and hopeful prayers to all my friends and others affected.

The 90's sucked, Gulf-I plus post cold-war recession and drawdown, I stayed away from aviation until late in the decade.

Picked up late 90's with the economy. Tanked after 9/11, then a series of events kept it up and down until 2012 when it started to pick up again. Some of that was age 65, which is pretty much not happening again. Some was also lingering necessary shake-out from de-regulation, also not happening again.

Things were going pretty good 2015 - 2020, especially near the end.

Oh man, this can be such a multifaceted/tangential discussion that could probably make fodder for a doctoral dissertation. But yes, I was doing this before 9/11 (121 world), "you're getting in a AT A GREAT TIME!!!! There's no better time to be a pilot, your career will be awesome!!!!" Yeah, didn't really work out that way.

This is true, just like 9/11. The amount of very qualified (and not very) that found themselves on the streets was rather large. However, a few things that "helped" career/job wise were the LCC's (pre ULCC) and ACMI's, and FX/UPS/SW. Many have said, and I agree, 9/11 was the best thing to happen to SW, AT, JB, F9, etc etc. The legacies had high labor costs and built a house of cards that could collapse easily on a severe economic downturn, like 9/11 caused. LCC's were light and nimble and able to grow/expand. Granted, summer 2001 UAL was rumored to be overstaffed (possible furlough) going into the fall with the expected economic cool off that was happening. DAL ran their last new hire class in late May or early June, a friend of mine was in it. He ended up at FedEx.

With that said, the competitive hiring mins/quals at the aforementioned went through the roof, in the relative spectrum. ESPECIALLY at UPS, FX, SW.

That would be me too, at UAL, staring down a second furlough. Except now I'm 15 years older than the furlough I took after 9/11. Meaning, at that time my responsabilities and obligations were much less than now. Granted, I STILL live well below my means, as I did then. But the thought of having to stagnate life, hobbies, aspirations, travel plans, what have you at 50 is much different than it was back then. I.O.W, "I'm too old for this sh1T"

This one, much MUCH different than 9/11 and the 2008 recession. No need to go into all the details. But 9/11 and the BK's saw massive scope giveaway and the "boom" of the regionals. Now, as you reference, not so much.

After 2008, regionals furloughed also. XJT, MESA, AE, etc.

The "normal", as we knew could be said to have taken till maybe late 2006/early 2007 hiring wise. CAL was ahead of the game and was the FIRST legacy to finally start hiring post 9/11 in 2005. The flow backs had gone back, "Schindler's List" got their spots, and the P.I.G.s were being integrated with the OTS hires in 2005. UAL, DAL, NW, USAir were starting to hire OTS in 2007. The mantra was the same, "Oh man, there's no better time to be a pilot!!!! You're getting in at a good time, your career is going to great!!!!", meh, age 65 in late 2007 and later the recession in 2008 curtailed that.

See above. 9/11 took till late 2006/early 2007 before we saw a turn around as a whole. 2008 recession wasn't till maybe 2013/2014 when the legacies FINALLY starting hiring again. And even that went though periods of pool wait times and no classes. Heck, we (UAL) didn't run a new hire class for almost 9 months a few times. DAL had training backups. AA? Same, just slow trickles if you were an OTS hire. Due to few spots available due to furlough return and flows, etc.

Who really knows? Hard to say really. You could ask 1000 different people and get as many opinions.

People like me that are looking at the 3rd massive career downturn in 20 years are simply thinking "awwwwwww sheeeeeeeet, not this, AGAIN!"

Probably, but at least retirements are happening now. Which may not be enough for new pilots. But for pilots already on property, and lucky enough to be after the fall, it will at least help to keep them there, ON PROPERTY. Whereas post age 65 and in the recession, that didn't happen.

True. But just measuring from right now, to before 9/11 (my experience), what was it REALLY? Sure, the last few years were GREAT!!!! But on an aggregate of those 20 years, more bad/crappy years than GOOD YEARS.

In the end of year/W2 thread, there were the standard guys measuring their manhood based on (insert color of the rainbow here) slip, JRM, SRM, blah blah blah. Payroll numbers that would make your head spin. And that's great, FOR THEM. But if you were to measure the sum total over some of their careers, many paid for it at some time or another.

Those that didn't/haven't? Well, they're in for a rude awakening.

There's a thread in the majors section where a troll is ranting about how U.S. pilots are getting paid to sit at home and do nothing while Euro pilots are taking in the shorts. Well, that sucks for those Euro pilots. And I'm one of those pilots that is currently sitting home and doing nothing, getting paid. At least, till the fall anyway. But if you were to measure it out over the last 20 years, the furlough/Ch11/downgrades/displacements/concessions, whatever, I paid, I FOR SURE PAID in my career for what I'm doing now. Paid, to do NOTHING. At least, till the fall anyway.

Above are my thoughts, JUST MINE. As well as my recollection from doing this through those times/eras and what I remember. Relatively a short/Reader's Digest version. I'm sure some will quote/insert tangential and non-sequitur details and factoids I simply omitted to try and shorten the post, cool, whatever.

Thanks for the kind words and positive thoughts. Many of us have been here before, we'll get through it, AGAIN.