Excargodog

In a word, substantial - at least for those who desire a career in the 121 world. Prospects have changed amazingly in the last 12 months.

While of the Big Three, only AA has yet furloughed, all three of the Big Three are downsizing due to the loss of international and business traffic and when (or even if) those elements of their business plan may recover is yet to be determined. In the interim, several regionals have gone out of business and several more seem likely to, which along with the 1000 pilots a year or so who will leave the military to go into the aviation world and the excess capacity already at the Big Three and SWA is going to keep new hiring into the 121 world suppressed for - most likely - a couple of years.

Long term (ie, five years out) I imagine it will be back to where it was 12 months ago, barring another pandemic, serious wars, etc., but it’s a more volatile business than those who want you to go in debt for their zero-to-hero programs want you to believe. A second “lost decade” is an ever present possibility. Just understand that going in...

rickair7777

This career is like stop-n-go traffic on the freeway.

When it starts picking up, it will move out quickly. Probably the more so due to early retirements and entry-level pilots and wannabes who got scared off (I know several of those). Career hint... when things start moving, you want to be in a position to take full, aggressive advantage of the opportunities. Also, not for the first time, regional=>major flow has shown that it's not a reliable career plan, although it is a reliable way to stagnate at a regional with lower pay and QOL. I wouldn't use flow as your Plan A unless you have some felonies.

Could be a decade but probably more like five years, with likely some good movement when things are back in full swing minus all the career drop-outs. Also a lot of mil guys will move onto other things in the meantime, although they might eventually start heading to regionals to get current again when things are looking up a lot..

tnkrtoad

So how the recovery works, at least according to my crystal ball...

Summer 2021, already baked in, airlines still carry more pilots than needed due to furlough mitigation

Summer 2022 or later, as airlines add frequency to meet demand, furlough mitigation agreements are canceled, and leaves of absence are recalled/denied

Summer 2023 or later, back to full employment of pilots on property, staffing shortages managed by open time/green slip etc.

Summer of 2024 or later, limited hiring begins

Excargodog

NSS! (The second ‘s’ is for Sherlock).

Agree, although I think a fair number of military will just hang out on active duty or the reserves until the movement starts. Either way, they will leapfrog over all of the newly ATP eligible and most of the regional guys.

TransWorld

I agree with these assessments, above. I like the analogy of stop and go traffic on the freeway.

TiredSoul

Funny thing is there are the times you should start training, not when the market is at its highest.
0- CFI in 6-9 months
2-3 years of parttime/full time instructing
1500 hrs in 3-4 years.
Catch the next wave.

VegasChris

I think after the election is figured out things will start moving in a better direction.

Then therapeutics and vaccines developed will start to really get the ball rolling.

Cases increasing right proves that lock downs are useless. Did you see how many people are trying to get out of Paris? People in UK are fighting it as well.

Good luck getting USA to lockdown again. I live in a blue state that is probably been hit the hardest. Our local elected leaders aren't shutting down things again. Governor knows he has no power because its impossible to enforce now that the police and the chamber of commerce hate him.

Everyone I know is over it. I am going to Cancun this week. On mostly full planes according to the seat map (I would check loads but I lost my nonrev privileges Oct 1) . Should I worry about the category 4 hurricane about to hit Nicaragua, the covid cases increasing, or the election uncertainty? I choose "none of the above"

People that can leisure travel are no longer worried. Business travel might never come back, but I can tell you that zoom is not working for my first grader.

Job outlook? I figure they will call when they call. Not going to change my life around this bull**** any longer. They will call one day sooner or later because there are a whole lot of 50 million dollar airframes parked at KVCV last time I flew over it. Smart people with lots of money that want to make more money will find some way to make them fly again sooner rather than later. I will be ready when they are. Until then I will just enjoy my family QOL and current career I am already comfortable in.

Trump will defer the interest on my student loans if he gets re-elected. Biden will probably get rid of some of it and defer the rest of it.

Only negative for me is the clock keeps ticking and I am 35 now. Only 30 years of potential commercial airline pilot years left to make this career change- I figure that is at least 3 more wild rides on this roller coaster.....and I have already been furloughed as an aiman trainee before I even got my ATP certificate. Think of how much life experience credit I will have when I make it to "old salty captain" level when I whine to my FO about how easy he has it.

firefighterplt

I’m with the above. Can’t afford to sit around and wait 5-10 years. Sitting on a bunch of useless fighter time (never thought I’d say that). Currently back in school, trying to make other opportunities happen.

If it bounces back rapidly, I’ll throw my hat in the ring. If it’s a lost decade, I’m not playing. Not getting any younger, that’s for sure...

Excargodog

https://www.jsfirm.com/Pilot-Fixed+W...ampaign=jooble

Think of it as a 2-3 year PCS...

Highflyer35

that’s exactly what happen to me in 08. Worked out perfect.