Is it worth it to start training now?
 

CFI here, I was talking to another CFI today about the industry and the crazy hiring and he said that it’s not worth it for people that are starting their training now because by the time they get their ATP minimums they won’t find a job, or if they get hired by a legacy they will likely to be on reserves for years to come. His negative attitude made me think about the future and I just wanted to hear others opinions, I know the industry is so unpredictable and they can start for furlong tomorrow, but is it true that in three-five years it’s not going to be worth it?

The industry has always had ups and downs. From a pilot hiring standpoint we are in the highest upswing we’ve ever seen, there will eventually be a downturn. Pilot hiring has been cyclical since about 1903.

If you love flying, and are going to regret not pursuing flying for a career, might as well start now.

I have always loved airplanes but watched what happened to the industry 2001-2009 and was scared away from investing in flight training (translation, I was worried about going into lots of debt). When I finally realized I wasn’t going to be happy if I didn’t try to make flying work, I had lost around three years, which is seniority I’ll never get back.

As always—your mileage may vary—but if flying is what you really want to do, there will always be reasons to fear for the future and that shouldn’t prevent you from pursuing your dreams. Even if you miss out on a huge seniority wave and don’t end up as a 787 CA, on most days being an A320 FO beats flying a desk.

Completely agree! I graduated high school when Covid happened and I decided not to go to flight school, now I regret it and I say that I could’ve been at an airline if I listened to my heart, but here I’m getting my PPL and starting my journey still at a very young age and I couldn’t be happier even I’m 80k in debt lol

Haha that’s the perfect thing to tell you to keep you from beating him to a major.

Don’t be so impressionable. If you like flying, and wanna fly, and fly for a living, then do it.

What a 30-40 year career will look like will be highly dependent.

Yeah you might not be a widebody captain after 10 years bc you missed the wave. But you could still have a very good career.

GL.

Well if “worth it” only means spending three months at a regional and then upgrading to legacy widebody Captain within two years with less than 2500 Total time. then NO it is not worth it.
If one’s expectation or measure of decent ROI is less than the above mentioned I ‘d say I’d be Bullish.
Regional first year pay today has increased an average of 263% from what it was for me 9 years ago.

A lot of us started flight school a month before 9/11. More than a few of us ended up being at the beginning of the wave for major hiring. Granted, those were hard years in the regionals… you never know what the future brings

Thousands of pilots needed every year for decades. They will be fine.

agreed set your expectations low and if you have to spend 5 years at a regional and pay due that’s generally the norm. The iron is super hot now and for a lot of people you can by pass that. But if you’re just starting now hoping in 2-3 year (or more if you take longer to reach atp mins) that the hiring of today will be the same the strong answer is no one knows but a good chance it won’t be as strong as it is now. Once legacy’s slow down lcc will also start to fill up and it’ll be back to norm and in a more steady state.

You got some other skill that pays 6 figures and only requires you to work half the month? There's a lot of negative Nancys in this business, think for yourself.

This quote pretty well distills the choice you face. Look at your options based on your educational attainment, resume to date, and desired lifestyle. A guy starting training today WILL NOT have the charmed career of someone who started in March 2020. However, they will likely still have a very nice career with a solid chance of a decade or more in the left seat of a widebody aircraft at a legacy carrier or a top tier freight carrier. Life isn’t guaranteed. You make your choices, work hard, and hopefully you live a great life. If someone is beating down your door offering a six figure salary to do something else with half of every month off, go for it!