Don't really have to speculate, retirements are known, I think there's a thread with that data in the majors section.

Basically crazy gangbuster retirements now through about 2026-ish, then tapering off somewhat but still a robust wave into the early 2030's. After, still pretty good retirement numbers (by historical standards) for the rest of that decade.

For noobs, you should strive to get in as early as possible... if you catch the end of the wave, you'll still get the job fairly easily but your future seniority progression won't be as crazy as right now.

My best friend is ATC and he has 9 years left before he can leave with a pension. If he could walk right now he would. The quality of life is really starting to get to him. Factor in the divorce he is paying for and the responsibilities as a father and he's locked in because of pay. If you were to leave right now, and go full throttle on the flying side, it might be 5 years until you can expect to earn what you make with out OT. But the big difference will be your quality of life. No more forced overtime and many more days actively at home with your loved ones (even as a commuter). It might hurt in the short term getting back to that point, but in the long term you may out earn vs having stayed ATC. But even if you didn't, the quality of life would likely be tremendous.

That's an extra day a week all year long. Any pilot working that much would make an insane amount of money.