Hedging the bet
 

If you were starting over in aviation, which path would you take that would grant you (in this order) best QOL for a family and best pay in the long run:

1) Instruct to 1200, go to freight, get corporate or EMS gig afterwards and stick in corporate aviation

2) instruct to 1200 go to freight, get over 1000 TPIC, join regionals, then hope to get picked up by a major in the next few years (given the 200% turnover regionals are going to experience in the coming years

Or

3) By that same token, get to 1500 somehow (either through instructing, freight, or some other method) join regional, stick it in the regional to get upgraded to Captain, get enough PIC so that a Major will hire you?

This is all based on starting this journey by 2016 (assume at that point you have 1200 hours).

Another question.... Is it feasible to join straight-up to a regional and realistically expect a 3-yr upgrade followed by another 3 years as a Captain to get picked up by a Major in 2022 (given all the retirements and movement)?

My data sources are from APC, and these links below:

Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis

This one shows Retirements and where one would most likely be in seniority say at like United by 2030 (if joined the airline at 2022).

Regional Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis

This one shows the 200% turnover at the regionals which is why I asked if a 3-yr upgrade followed by 3 more years as a Captain to get in at a Major is feasible.

I know this seems way unrealistic now, but is it plausible during the timeframes I'm talking about? Will the pool of highly qualified regional Captains be all already hired by the Majors by this time (2016-2022) allowing a new joiner to progress rapidly fast as I had stated (6 years total)?

I'm just looking for thoughts/advice from the Pros. Thank you gentlemen!

First thing you need to do is take those analyses you linked and toss them in the garbage. The authors claim that the model "use's public available information" (sic), and then proceed to make up a whole mess of very specific-sounding numbers with zero citation or basis for reasoning other than a constant, uniform 2.3% growth rate at all airlines in the United States, a phenomenon which seems as likely to me as a fleet change to flying saucers. Asking whether it is "feasible" for anyone here to make projections as far out as 2022 is basically sending out an RFP for snake oil salesmen.

Thanks. Yeah I wasn't so sure how accurate this data was for sure, but I was mainly going off of the "assume 0% growth" numbers with just taking the retirement data into account. I figured the retirement data is pretty much fact.

Even the "assuming 0% growth" numbers are without citation. We have been in a cycle of negative growth at the major level for years, and even a projection of 0% growth may be optimistic. I could draw you up a very pretty set of graphs and data points based on a 3.28% growth rate YoY. It'd look awesome, because there are all sorts of ways to make "wild-ass guessing" look like a valuable trade skill.

As to your original question, if you are committed to pursuing aviation as a career, I suggest you dispense with the crystal ball routine, and go flying. Whatever opportunities exist for you in the near future, the only guarantee I have is that they will not be predicted by the current models. Learning to thrive on chaos and take advantage of completely unexpected opportunity has been the most important skill I've picked up in my 12 years of pursuing this career.

...y'know, that and, like, landing.

what everyone else said. This industry is extremely fluid, and can not be trended. Go bang chicks, it sounds like your in college. This website is for after you graduate, end up at a dead end regional, and knock up one of the chicks you banging and want to hide from the reality of your life =P!!!

The most important decisions of your career will be made with careful deliberation considering all available data and after seeking out the counsel of many wise mentors and peers. And it may be 100% the wrong decision. Who, in early 1987, would not have left a struggling, bankrupt cargo carrier named Flying Tigers for an ever-profitable, growing, always-hiring up-and-coming airline called USAir? Need I tell you what that decision means 25 years later?

My bet is the Mods move this thread.

Aside from that, aviation is like sex. If you are smart, you leave with the first one that says yes. If you see a better deal, take it. If you fall in love, stay loyal to that one forever.

Also don't forget there are always twice as many pilots as any employer needs. When the first airplane was invented Wilbur and Orville had to flip a coin to see who got to fly it. So before an airplane ever flew there were twice as many pilots as needed. That remained the one constant.

Of course, a hedge is a contra position. So I guess that means go to law school, or become a petroleum engineer.

Stop your plans.

Go to dental school, pharmacy school, or med school. Become aforementioned type doctor. Buy your own plane and fly evenings and weekends.

I would advise taking the route that got you there quickest.

Get to where you want to be ASAP. Frankly, get to where you can forge a decent career, ASAP, it doesn't have to be your first choice.

When you're there, dig your heels in, and make it your home for the next 35 years. In that time, things will go up, and things will come down. You will be rewarded with seniority based pay, and seniority based quality of life, and increased security. The grass is always greener, but the rolling stone gathers no moss, as they say.

Don't worry about the next big thing, because the tide ebbs and flows. Relax, enjoy the journey, and protect yourself. There are far too many folks flying short term contracts around the globe, hopping from one job to the next to keep a roof over their families' heads, with no benefits, no retirement etc. because they repeatedly jumped ship, and never created any seniority-based protection for themselves. Many would have been better off staying at a regional, all things considered.

As you can see, I'm very conservative in my outlook on this matter, but if history is of any value, the best we can do is endevor to protect ourselves. In this industry, seniority is an enormous part of that.

Perhaps not a very useful reply.

Amen brotha! You have some real gems sometimes. Makes me wonder where some of the other crap you spew comes from :)