Caelum Deus

From everything I've seen in the last 10 years (and mostly in the last 2-3 years) of flying, I'm under the assumption that the QOL is going to get really good for us pilots. Here's why.

1) The massive amounts of pilots who will retire will cause a huge pilot shortage, which will end up allowing higher paying jobs to be accessed by lower qualified people.
2) Because of the mortgage/economic crisis that happened a few years back, there has been a significant shortage in the amount of people getting into flight training, producing a lack of supply for the airliners soon-to-be high demand for pilots.
3) The ATP entry requirement which will put a devastating grip on the ability for majors/regionals to hire pilots, furthering increasing airline demand.
4) And the increased rest requirement which will demand the airlines to hire about 20% more pilots to fill the space, even further increasing the demand for pilots. (sorry cargo guys :-))

With all this being said, I have no idea why there would be any reason that us pilots won't be treated like kings once again.

Please share your thoughts about what other factors could help or hurt the upcoming pilot hiring movement.

rickair7777

We will never be treated like kings again.

Long-term, a severe pilot shortage will be resolved by airlines running their own ab-initio training programs for high-school drop-outs.

The best we might see is a period of rising pay as the shortage picks up steam. Managers will prefer to implement signing bonuses for new-hires as opposed to across-board pay raises. Make sure that you contract forbids unilateral bonuses paid to select demographics within the pilot group (new-hires, FO's, etc). If one pilot gets a bonus for coming to work, they should all get a bonus.

galaxy flyer

If you spent the last ten years in aviation you should know better.

In 2001, there was a huge shortage of RJ pilots, fixed in three years or so. FTDT won't be as big as some think--current contracts exceed the FARs in many, but not all cases. Airlines can close out loads of non-profitable routes, upgauge and reduce frequency, hire from the ranks of RJs and let the RJ operators starve for pilots making the adjustment there where they don't have to pay. The ATP rule will restrict supply, but if the market won't pay the fares, the route will close.

How much excuse is there for CLT-CAE or CLT-GSO, driving is cheaper AND faster. Every hub has dozens of flights that don't make sense, if costs rise any more. Heck, the RJ 50-seaters don't make sense now on many routes.

Kings? Don't hold your breath.

GF

Caelum Deus

Thanks for the input. I haven't considered the excessive routes that some carriers have. I would have just assumed that every airline would be minimizing non profitable expenses considering the cost of fuel.
And you're right about the regionals will lose tons of pilots and they will struggle to replace them. I just dont see how they will find pilots to fill the slots without paying the pilots more. The only problem is that they don't have the money to do so. Which means these low cost carriers will eventually be bought out by larger airlines, and then hopefully those airlines can bump up the pay.

And for the king thing, I haven't lost hope and never will. Everything in my career has worked out more then just fine. I don't know why it would change.

PermaFo

Whoa.

filler

galaxy flyer

Caelum

I've been in aviation since 1970, grew up living near airline pilots in the '60s, guys who "lived like kings". And it just isn't so, they lived well, they were more respected, yes, but Kings? No. Even then, they weren't rich, by standards of the day.

The idea that airline pilots "in the good old days" were kings is a problem that still infects those who had no idea what it was like for them. My neighbor was #4 at EA, not a king. My best friend's dad, a DC-8 FO, later B727 and DC-10 captain, king? Nope.

GF

Shiner

I do hope that a temporary shortage causes mainline to pick some of it's flying back up from the regionals.

rcfd13

Will it though? Everyone in my new hire class had ATP mins. Most of the other people I know at the regionals say the same about their new hire classes. People keep making a big deal about it restricting supply, but as of right now the regionals aren't really hiring people who have less anyway and they're doing fine filling the positions.

rickair7777

There is a backlog of entry-level pilots due to the 2008-2012+ recession.

As regional pay gets worse (due to competitive pressures in a shrinking industry) and QOL declines (due to new rest rules and high load factors) fewer people will be attracted to the industry in the first place.

Lenders are already leary of financing flight training. That and the 1500 hour requirement will probably scare off the staple of the puppy mills: young, impulsive ADD types with underwhelming academic backgrounds who wake one morning and decide to become a Pylut...but only if they can be flying a Jet in four months.

Career changers will be scared away by a poor and uncertain compensation outlook and high loads (impractical commuting, useless travel bennies).

The high price of fuel is not going to make flight training any cheaper either...especially after the EPA bans 100LL...I suspect there will be a political agenda to push that through within the next four years.

I heard a radio add yesterday for a school in Tuscon which was REALLY oriented towards the lowest common denominator...it had airplane zooming noises in the background and everything.

JohnBurke

there has never been a pilot shortage, nor will there be. Don't fall victim to the tired yarn spun by Kit Darby and flight school and college recruiters. There's no shortage of pilots.

On occasion we see an elevated demand, but there has never been, nor will there be, a shortage.