Mid 40s - Smart to leave LCC for Legacy?
 

I'd like to get some thoughts from the APC community on this.

My husband is currently working his way through first year pay at an LCC.

At face value it would seem an easy choice for him to move over to one of the big 3 if the opportunity presented, but he's in his mid forties, and he worries he could end up a career FO if he went.

My thoughts are that we should do it because the pay and benefits are so much better.

We're light on our feet, and adventurous, so domiciles and such aren't playing a huge factor.

Any thoughts? I really appreciate it.

Depends really. Spirit payrates aren't bad at all. With the situation in the gulf ie ISIS, oil prices couldn't rocket causing potential slow growth and more outsourcing. It's really anybody's guess. I would chase QOL and not so much the almighty $$$. Life is short, be thankful for what you have. If I were in my mid 40's, id probably stay put and enjoy life... Work to live not the other way around. Just my .02

IMO I doubt he would be stuck as a lifer FO at any of the big 3 because of the amount of movement that is going to take place. It will be even better if you are willing to relocate to or commute to a junior base. A lot of people speculate that upgrades are going to be dropping to 10 years or less at any of the 3. Upgrades on the 190 at Airways are still at around 1 year I believe.

I'm in my mid-40s and just started at AA. I wasn't at a LCC though; was left seat at Eagle which was, until recently, a pretty good gig for the most part. I think I will upgrade in roughly 10 years IF things remain reasonably status quo. Regardless I should have decent QOL (slats is spot on w his advice IMO) in the right seat of pretty much any equipment in just a few years (maybe even making LCC captain pay) and have the last 5-10 in the left seat. Of course if he's gonna do it sooner is better. Giving up less than one year to hire on early in the wave would probably be a good move. JMO though of course.

Depends on the LCC. If he's at Frontier, Virgin or Allegiant, I would say it's probably a good move. Spirit would be a much tougher choice. JetBlue will probably be getting large improvements to their pay and benefits now that they have a union. More information is required to give the best answer. Just keep in mind that the best place today may not be in ten years time.

If domiciles aren't an issue then I don't think he'll have much to lose by leaving a LCC with less than a year seniority to go to a legacy.

Career FO at a major can be a pretty good deal, don't knock it.

I dont know what the LCC pay are but a career FO at Delta makes pretty good coin (albeit we are still way behind what we should get paid). You can have a great career and make mucho dinero as an FO at Delta.

TEN

Upgrades might be as soon as 8 yrs at AA.

It would be a tougher decision if he was making six figures at a regional carrier. But a newhire at an LCC? I'd leave yesterday.

First newhires at AA will probably be 737 and 757/767 lineholders one year, or sooner, after coming on property.

You can't game the system. Yesterday's rising stars are today's sinking ships. CEOs in this industry know that even 5 year plans are pipe dreams. Go where you will be happy. The rest is up to the airline gods.

Truer words have never been spoken. 18 months ago, I mocked for leaving my regional to come to US Airways. I'm now a line holder on the Airbus (at a place where reserve was measured in decades as recently as 2 years ago) and am holding F/O on the 767 International (waiting to be trained). I'm also well on my way to working for the world's largest airline. Pay is quickly coming up and upgrades are coming down. It junior Captain isn't appealing, senior widebody F/O ain't too shabby.

Of the various factors affecting the quality of a career, right after luck and health are 1) when you're hired relative to a big hiring push, and b) how old you are.

Being young is nice, but what you want is to lead the pack. Hiring occurs in spurts. Imagine for example that a major hired 3000 pilots from 1996-2001, and didn't start again until 2007-2013, when 800 pilots were hired.

The junior 200 hire is only 1 number ahead o the first 2007 hire, and only 801 from the bottom guy, even though he has 13 years longevity. You don't want to be that guy. You want to be the 1996 hire. He never skipped a beat, had a possible upgrade in year 2, and was a widebody Captain about five years before the junior 20001 hire can even think of being the most junior Captain.

Moral of the story: get in line (any line) early.

Early is now. We're sitting on the cusp of an epic wave of hiring (right until the moment it gets interrupted), and the pilots that got hired at the 3 legacies this year are going to be envied and cursed for decades to come. The 2014 hires are going to be in almost as good a shape, because the hiring machine is completely spooled up yet.

The time, IMO, is now.

Good luck.

Isn't it already 2014? Apologies for adding nothing to the discussion.

Envied and cursed? Who does that? Everyone knows that it's all timing and luck in this industry and the seniority game. No one asks to be at the bottom of the hiring wave and then bam 9/11. Or bam everyone was treating their home mortgages like a credit card. Or the Middle East. Or oil.

No era has the number or retirements like the industry is facing today.

Approx. 47,000 in the industry with 16,500 retirements at the majors/LCC's in the next 8.5 yrs (Deutsche Bank Aviation Research data).

Even a 15% reduction (large furlough cycle percentage) tomorrow would be eaten up by retirements in the next 3.5-4 yrs.

I'm 43, and got hired at a legacy last year. I'll be here for at least 22 years assuming no change in retirement age, my health, etc. I will have the option--the option, not the obligation--to upgrade here. A lifer FO will still make several times what the median income is, and more than twice what I was making as a regional captain. I figure I will be able to hold a captain bid here (on reserve in the junior domicile) after 7 years, in any domicile on a narrow-body after 12, and as a lineholder somewhere for at least the last 10-15 years of my career. Even from one major to another, walking after one year is no big deal.

If he wants to go to a legacy carrier and can get hired, I'd say more power to him.

P.S. - Retirement/401(k) contributions alone make it smarter to be at a legacy. The LCC's are pretty behind on that.

This^^^^^^^ exactly!!!! Tell him to go to one of the majors at first opportunity. UAL is retiring half of its pilots in the next 15 years or so.

You're correct, of course. I wasn't saying people are scum for being lucky in their timing. You're focusing on the wrong part of the post.

I was simply using an image to say it's much better to be at the front of a hiring wave. It's like life handing you a winning lottery ticket, or finding out that you actually are the heir of Zamunda and you can have squads of beautiful girls to attend to your bathing needs. Or, for the female version, finding out that you have a fairy godmother, and you're going to the party to meet Clooney in your own, new Lambo Gallardo.

If you have any choice at all, you want to be there.

Nothing worse than hitting 65 and wondering, "What could have been." Make the jump!

Being a 'career legacy FO' may be ok financially, but career satisfaction is not solely monetary. I wouldn't be happy if I was in the right seat for the entirety of my career at a legacy, especially if I had never been in the left seat of an Airbus or Boeing in a prior life. I guess it just depends on what you're after.

Good point, but it's hard to imagine how a F/O hired at a major at 40 would be forced to stay in the right seat very long. We're supposed to retire ~ 5,000 out of 12,000 in the next 9 years at Delta (I don't have the exact numbers, but that's the ballpark). Junior CA is in the 9,200 range, although you could call that an aberration. But ~8000, you can get a junior left seat without much difficulty.

12,000 pilots at Delta and junior CA is 9200??? Holy cow! Is CA that bad of a gig over there? We at AA just passed the 10,000 pilot mark and junior CA is still around 5500, or roughly a mid '98 hire.

Well, it is on the NYC M88, and very few people have the stomach for either NYC or the M88. We have bridges and tunnels, road rage, erratic foreign drivers, and that's just on the ground at JFK.

No one really understands how the 88 gets airborne, or stays that way. It'll run out of gas before you get through the NOTAMS for either JFK or EWR, assuming you would trust it on A/P long enough to read through them anyway. Nobody knows exactly how long that might take, because it's never been done.

I'm pretty sure NYC M88A is going to be junior-assigned to newhires soon. It's awful, awful, awful.

Really awful, so stay away.

I don't plan on leaving Spirit, I am really enjoying it, however I have to upgrade to make a decent check, DAL 777 FO pay rates,I would yank gear forever:)

A 20 year stint at a legacy isn't bad. You really have to look at retirement plans as part of the whole package. The typical legacy DC 401k plan is pretty good, not sure what LCC's offer, but I would be surprised if they came anywhere near the big guys plans.

Could you imagine being a relatively new guy at SWA and leaving to go to TWA in the mid to late 90's. Wonder if that ever happened - hopefully not.

Guess it's anyone's guess what can happen - but... With the consolidation of late with the legacies, it does seem relatively stable as compared to previous eras.

Can't speak for AA or United, or NY-based Delta guys for that matter...but my Atlanta-based Delta buddy says he'll hold CA on the 88 or 717 long before he'd ever be able to touch one of the "true" international/widebody FO positions in Atlanta. Very senior indeed.

That's a good point.

Let the international flying stay senior! That type of flying ruins you for the rest of your life. Yeah, you may have a couple more days off than domestic, but at what cost? Have you seen what those guys look like at age 40? 50?

The time to do that type of flying is when you're young. The older you get, the more you should stay on your own time zone and fly body-friendly schedules.

I will gladly fly 737 domestic CA turns between DCA and DFW as a double digit seniority captain. That's because I actually want to live a few years after my retirement!

Thank you everyone! For taking the time to provide so many thoughtful points of view. This is very helpful to us; I really, really appreciate it!

Bear in mind, the Big 3 401k is a contribution, not a match, they give you 15 or 16% of your salary into the plan. You can also contribute on your own up to the allowable max. First year at an LCC is not heavily invested in that company.

With this said, (I believe, yes?) the max annual contribution, is $17,500, yes ?

17,500 is personal contribution limit. Company DC limit is "I think" 40,500.

Employee is 17.5, 50 and older is 23k. Total company/employee is 51k I believe.
Having good mutual funds can make this increase by a fair amount over time (or possibly a loss). Our plan allows for a brokerage account as part of the 40k, so you may invest in stocks or outside mutual funds on your own.