Dont want to start an argument but I have friends that are newhires or waiting on a class at fedex. They’re pretty concerned with the company performance. One said they combined a class and may stop for the rest of the year.

Dont know if If hop the purple train right now.

 

Yeah, they only made $745M in net income last quarter, the wheels are really coming off the train.

 

Exactly what I thought someone would say.

They’re expecting a tough road in 2020 15-20% hit. Plus earlier this year their fiscal 4th qtr was a loss of 1.97B (thats with a B)

Breaking from AMZ was a good move, one that UPS cant sustain. I just wouldn’t be on they bottom on their seniority list for the next couple years. Actually as for as that goes I probably wouldn’t do brown either.

Amazon is going to hit this market HARD over the next 5yrs and it will he done with ACMI and contract labor on the ground and in the air. Unless something changes I just dont see any silver lining.

 

The FedEx Q4’19 loss was due to a non-cash pension mark-to-market of $3.9B; operating income was $1.32B in Q4’19.

 

Curious on statement "UPS cant sustain". Sustain shipping low yield net Amazon volume? The low profit volume?
FedEx works on higher yield volume as is their market, same for UPS. Business to business, pharmaceuticals, customs express shipment internationally. Is Amazon taking over those high yield lanes to Asia and Europe soon? Maybe they will take over the US long term, but doubtful China and India will allow Amazon in their markets as they do in North America. UPS, FedEx and DHL premium markets will survive IMO.

 

Is there many captains at any of the majors that would leave for FedeX or UPS. I know some who have left JetBlue and Spirit as 5 year plus captains for both. Would be curious on the sentiment of people on a move like that. In the long run It pays off for sure.

 

Many non factual statements. While Purple will be just fine, yes, short term pain will happen and seniority progression will slow a bit.

Brown? I believe you are wrong. Having a smaller fleet, there is little room to shrink, especially when your money maker is the faster products, as evidenced by the last few 10Q’s. Because we are a smaller flight fleet, we have been playing catch up for a while. Still have 30+ net new airplanes coming in the next 3 years, plus averaging 100+ mandatory retirements per year (not counting early outs), the math is easy to see. Fedex staffs their airline different, they like more pilots per plane (good for them!!). UPS staffs bare bones. I believe seniority progression short to medium term will be slightly better at Brown for these reasons, long term (5+ years) is anyone’s guess.

My biggest concern with either Brown or Purple sustaining revenue growth. It has been 5%+ per year for the last decade, don’t know how long that can be sustained even with e-commerce growth. Purple did have an acquisition push, non organic revenue growth (TNT), skewing somewhat the numbers.

 

The amount of money a company makes is a pointless number. What matters is the ROI, or how much money is earned compared to how much was invested.
I don’t have the time to look up this ROI, but I imagine it’s not very much. An airline the size of FedEx would run through $175m in the blink of an eye.

 

Here is a recent report:

https://csimarket.com/stocks/FDX-Ret...tment-ROI.html

 

0.93% for for the quarter??? That’s pretty bad.