Groundpointfife

I am surprised as well that they haven’t really put out a preliminary. They probably have a good working theory of what happened from the, CVR, FDR and recovered components.

One thought crossed my mind though- if the story circulating about how one pilot pushed the yoke forward is true, but they have ruled out suicide, what does it say about hiring and training standards?

Is there any chance the NTSB is taking their time to figure out how someone could be signed off as qualified/competent yet make such a terrible mistake? (I get that we are all human and susceptible to mistakes, but if the rumored story is accurate I would think it is incompetence) Maybe they are combing through the notes in training records at each place the pilots flew for to see if there was a pattern and this accident could have been prevented with changes or better gates in the school house/HR department.

DC8DRIVER

Probably the reason that the NTSB has gone quite (aside from conducting a difficult investigation) is that "circulating stories" bouncing around internet threads - especially one that features Atlas 767 pilots' posts - become a breeding ground for misinterpretation and reposting by eager reporters.

Groundpointfife

If there is misinformation being spread, wouldn't it be better to make a statement?

Obviously if you're still trying to assess what's happened you can't make it definitive saying the cause was x, y and z, but you sure can counter the rumors. There's a fine line between stopping the rumors and providing more nuggets of information that will stir people up, but the silence seems odd in this case. It actually makes people overthink it and believe something is being hidden.

Also the way they edited the initial statement from control column input to elevator nose down deflection without showing a correction has created a discussion about why they might choose to go about it that way (imagine a newspaper etc changing the story, they'd put a time stamp or issue a new article with an explanation- especially when the verbiage alters the interpretation substantially). The control column input language made it sound like the pilots did it versus elevator deflection where it sounds like a malfunction/mechanical problem.

Interestingly the rumored version of events seems to correspond with the NTSB saying control column input, while also ruling out a suicide. My personal opinion is that's why they changed the language, but unfortunately they did not expound upon their reasoning for the edit.

midnightshuttle

It has to be social/political in nature. In today’s PC extreme culture thats the only thing that shuts things down.

Im waiting for the CIA, FBI to come in like TWA800... that will set facebook on fire!

HuggyU2

Still crickets...

Groundpointfife

Random theory- they want to let the families mourn their loses before they release a report that it was pilot induced.

Whale Driver

NTSB GoTeam reports take at least a year, usually closer to 2 years.

rickair7777

That's not a consideration. If they were ready, they simply could not justify any delay based on who might be offended or upset.

But hypothetically... if the probable cause is ugly, with possible broader consequences, they will want to keep it very close to the vest, dot the I's, cross the T's, and make damn sure they have it all correct before they go to the presses.

ESQ702

^^^ This. Nothing is fast with the government unless they want to take money from you.

Reactivity

It's been a month since somebody started this thread and the response was that it will easily take a year or more. What's your hurry? You have a bet on the outcome?