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Old 05-17-2019, 03:52 PM   #41  
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I'm telling you. You guys should be writing your congressional representatives and telling them how much less safe the troops are on Atlas because of the recent bout of incompetent hires and inadequately-trained hires. The lowering of standards has an effect, and you can predict to your Congressman that when the NTSB issues its final report on the Houston accident, it is going to raise serious questions about these issues. It shouldn't take 300 + dead troops for AMC to stand Atlas down or at least insist that it address the quality and training issue. It's a legitimate concern, and instead of doing ineffective crap like the union targeting Bezos with dumb banners, you guys can take individual action that might actually accomplish something. Me, I notice the over-ocean incidents, the bending of the aircraft at PSM, the dramatic reduction in OE requirements, a zillion anecdotal "Almosts", and Houston. The rising tide of this stuff is the canary in the coal mine, and for goodness' sake Atlas actually had a fatal hull loss. Fatal hull losses at Part 121 carriers are so rare that they are statistically-insignificant predictors of "safety" (i.e. you can't say, "Well, we've never had an actual accident." That can't be the standard.) But once you have one, it can indicate something very important.

And one other thought about Houston that is relevant here. We all know whose apparent conduct I am referring to, and I have been concerned by how the discussion about it has been framed. I think it's relevant to our discussion here that one could say that the person involved wasn't a bad person or pilot in any way, but one might say that in that moment, the person was in over that particular person's head and maybe with better training or more experience might have reacted differently (and of course maybe not), but that it's a fair deduction that maybe that person was not ready to be where they were on that day. And like I say, that's relevant to what we're discussing here.

If the generals are pushed into a serious reevaluation of Atlas as a contractor, it is going to have to take steps to address the issue. Way back when, I think I was a one-man band writing letters to try to get AMC to re-evaluate Tower. They finally did, and I'm sure my activities had almost nothing to do with it, but when they did they pulled the plug.
First off was the fatal hull loss cause determined yet? Itís pretty irresponsible to insinuate blame when a cause has not been determined yet.

What would you say if DOD pulled the plug on Atlas? Furloughs possibly?

This is corporate greed at its finest. Bezoís squeezing everybody to increase his bottom line. Airlines taking the scraps he gives them. The pilot groups and families are the ones sacrificing their incomes. Itís going to drive down pay rates in the entire industry eventually. If there are people willing to fly at these rates, itís only going to get worse.
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Old 05-17-2019, 04:06 PM   #42  
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First off was the fatal hull loss cause determined yet? Itís pretty irresponsible to insinuate blame when a cause has not been determined yet.

What would you say if DOD pulled the plug on Atlas? Furloughs possibly?
I think we all have a remarkably-detailed understanding of a relevant likely cause.

So it's smart to bite the hand of private employers who feed you, but not a government one?

The generals like 747s. Atlas flies passenger 747s. No matter how horrific are the findings of a white glove inspection, the generals will give Atlas an opportunity to fix it. The point is that a meaningful threat of a stand down is the kind of thing that will get the shareholders' attention for exactly the reason that you're mentioning. Loss of Revenue. Big loss of Revenue. You guys say that it's going to smell like a corpse in there if they actually start sniffing into the new-hire and training records, and related operational incident trends. Great. Let's get them sniffing.

Why did Allegiant settle with its Union? Why did Southwest settle with its mechanics' union? Sometimes, the extra fifty cents a gallon at the pump is worth it when all of a sudden you need a bunch of gas in the middle of nowhere in the middle of the night. Meaning sometimes bigger issues come up that put the extra expense in a new light.
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Old 05-17-2019, 04:11 PM   #43  
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World air cargo traffic is forecast to grow 4.2 percent per year in the next 20 years. In terms of RTK growth, air freight, including express traffic, is projected to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year while airmail will grow at a slower pace, averaging 2 percent annual growth through 2037. Overall, world air cargo traffic will more than double in the next 20 years, expanding from 256 billion RTKs in 2017 to 584 billion RTKs in 2037.


https://file.veryzhun.com/buckets/ca...732a88cd9d.pdf
I donít disagree with the article you have posted. It is probably correct from a strategic viewpoint. What you may have failed to consider is the double edged sword of a recent good world economy. Competition in the ACMI segment has been created in the expanding market. When there is a downturn the work will go to the lowest cost provider

What I see from the working man perspective is, China is financing aircraft deals for their organically grown lift. We have competition for our Turkish contract from a company that didnít exist a few years ago. Airbridge and other unsafe operators are getting safer and will be eventually moving their 800ís into position to compete very favorably on routes currently flown by Atlas, Kalitta, etc. This is just the tip of the iceberg as far as competition.
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