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Old 07-19-2019, 11:48 AM   #171  
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Wait,...that was humor. What a dry, sardonic wit you have.
Some one that gives me too much credit, thank you.
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Old 07-20-2019, 09:07 PM   #172  
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So, in a recent SEC filing it has come to light that the top 5 executives at AAWH have all been granted retention bonuses: $500,000 each if they stay on through 2020, and an additional $1 Million each if they stay on through the end of 2021.

One could read this in one of two ways: either we are about to file Ch. 11 bankruptcy protection (anyone see that article about how much Debt we have taken on?) or we are about to be sold.

Just a little clarification for those who might think that the company being sold would be a good thing (as in, Amazon) and thus a reason to get on property, keep this in mind:

In the latest scope negotiation with the company, the company said that they want scope that will allow them to vastly grow their dry leasing business. I.E., they want the ability to start leasing out our fleet without leasing the crews along with it.

Additionally, the company has implied that they want to make sure that in the next CBA that the pilots are not tied to the airframes. They think that if the pilots on property have the right to fly our own airframes (translation: our job security) that they will not be able to sell the company as easily.

AAWH has big plans in the future. Unfortunately, these plans do not seem to include any of the crewmembers who have grown this airline on their backs.

Remember, we do not have a single ACMI agreement with Amazon. We have leased Amazon airframes for a period of 10 years, and then separately have leased crew services for a period of 7 years (of which, we have maybe 3.5 remaining). The deal was intentionally written so that, after 7 years (or even sooner with 180 days written notice), all of the crewmembers at Atlas/Southern will be kicked off of the airplanes that they have been flying.
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Old 07-21-2019, 12:39 AM   #173  
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I’ve seen something similar to this with republic back in 2016. Company was refusing to give a contract forever and ten days and then declared ch 11. Stocks/shares dropped overnight and they eventually were delisted from NASDAQ, too.

The debt that RAH had ran up was discharged and negated so the company was able to start showing profit margins in the black again. Then, the new contract was announced as a “Last, best, final offer” (take it or leave it) type thing.

Also, I don’t think furloughs are coming. If the company has or does stop hiring, it might be due to having no LCA’s available to get people signed off and flying the line.

Then again, I could very well be wrong. Guess time will tell.
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Old 07-21-2019, 02:32 AM   #174  
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So, in a recent SEC filing it has come to light that the top 5 executives at AAWH have all been granted retention bonuses: $500,000 each if they stay on through 2020, and an additional $1 Million each if they stay on through the end of 2021.

One could read this in one of two ways: either we are about to file Ch. 11 bankruptcy protection (anyone see that article about how much Debt we have taken on?) or we are about to be sold.

Just a little clarification for those who might think that the company being sold would be a good thing (as in, Amazon) and thus a reason to get on property, keep this in mind:

In the latest scope negotiation with the company, the company said that they want scope that will allow them to vastly grow their dry leasing business. I.E., they want the ability to start leasing out our fleet without leasing the crews along with it.

Additionally, the company has implied that they want to make sure that in the next CBA that the pilots are not tied to the airframes. They think that if the pilots on property have the right to fly our own airframes (translation: our job security) that they will not be able to sell the company as easily.

AAWH has big plans in the future. Unfortunately, these plans do not seem to include any of the crewmembers who have grown this airline on their backs.

Remember, we do not have a single ACMI agreement with Amazon. We have leased Amazon airframes for a period of 10 years, and then separately have leased crew services for a period of 7 years (of which, we have maybe 3.5 remaining). The deal was intentionally written so that, after 7 years (or even sooner with 180 days written notice), all of the crewmembers at Atlas/Southern will be kicked off of the airplanes that they have been flying.
Why wouldn't a potential buyer want the pilots tied to the company? Pilots are a hot commodity these days. You think Amazon is a potential buyer that just wants the airplanes and no pilots? Maybe hire their own and try to stop a union from taking hold?
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Old 07-21-2019, 02:41 AM   #175  
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Why wouldn't a potential buyer want the pilots tied to the company? Pilots are a hot commodity these days. You think Amazon is a potential buyer that just wants the airplanes and no pilots? Maybe hire their own and try to stop a union from taking hold?
If it was your wallet buying a hot commodity you would want to be able check prices across the street.
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Old 07-21-2019, 03:49 AM   #176  
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Labor doesn’t even register. It’s a drop in the buck to pay us.
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Old 07-21-2019, 04:30 AM   #177  
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I’ve seen something similar to this with republic back in 2016. Company was refusing to give a contract forever and ten days and then declared ch 11. Stocks/shares dropped overnight and they eventually were delisted from NASDAQ, too.

The debt that RAH had ran up was discharged and negated so the company was able to start showing profit margins in the black again. Then, the new contract was announced as a “Last, best, final offer” (take it or leave it) type thing.

Also, I don’t think furloughs are coming. If the company has or does stop hiring, it might be due to having no LCA’s available to get people signed off and flying the line.

Then again, I could very well be wrong. Guess time will tell.

That is not at all how that went down with Republic. The new contract was signed well in advance of the bankruptcy filing and not touched during ch. 11. The company wanted all labor disputes settled before filing in order to ease the restructuring process. VERY different game from what's going on with Atlas. Republic made it clear the pilots were very much part of the future success of the company while Atlas seems to be playing a much different game.
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Old 07-21-2019, 06:15 AM   #178  
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Why wouldn't a potential buyer want the pilots tied to the company? Pilots are a hot commodity these days. You think Amazon is a potential buyer that just wants the airplanes and no pilots? Maybe hire their own and try to stop a union from taking hold?
I can see it now. It’s an open secret that Amazon is already running a shadow operation and calling the shots in CVG. Amazon gets their own operating certificate then gives their 180 day notice to dump the CMI contract for Atlas/Southern pilots, putting 600 pilots on the street. Possibly 400 more if they take the 20 737’s that are coming. Then say hey guys and gals come work for Papa Bezos! We might even give you a preferential interview! They have the airplanes leased for another 3 years, plenty of time to hire and train their own crews before they buy the planes outright. It won’t be hard, those recently furloughed AAWH crews have up to 7 years experience...Hey a non union job at year 1 probationary pay again is better than no job right?
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Old 07-21-2019, 06:30 AM   #179  
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I can see it now. It’s an open secret that Amazon is already running a shadow operation and calling the shots in CVG. Amazon gets their own operating certificate then gives their 180 day notice to dump the CMI contract for Atlas/Southern pilots, putting 600 pilots on the street. Possibly 400 more if they take the 20 737’s that are coming. Then say hey guys and gals come work for Papa Bezos! We might even give you a preferential interview! They have the airplanes leased for another 3 years, plenty of time to hire and train their own crews before they buy the planes outright. It won’t be hard, those recently furloughed AAWH crews have up to 7 years experience...Hey a non union job at year 1 probationary pay again is better than no job right?
You got it. That is how you go from being short on pilots and hiring as many as you can to immediately furloughing hundreds.
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Old 07-21-2019, 07:39 AM   #180  
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I can't imagine that Amazon would ever want to deal directly with pilots' unions. And have only one basket for its eggs. So it makes no sense.

In the recent go-round, various carrier/Amazon contracts were expanded and extended. I would expect that to happen in the future if everything continues to work well. The original contracts were executed at a time that nobody had any idea whether this would work, so there were lots of provisions structured with that in mind. They don't mean anything in today's situation.

As to the retention bonuses, however, to me they're concerning. They usually arise to keep the current hands on the tiller where there is a significant likelihood of some kind of meaningful challenge -- operational, financial, etc, where something's likely to happen that might incline one or more of the experienced hands to bail before the other shoe drops. These kind of agreements are disfavored in bankruptcy, but not uncommon in highly-challenging times that might eventually lead to bankruptcy. Also not uncommon where a company is going to break up, sell off pieces, or otherwise reorganize outside of bankruptcy.

The executives know they're gonna get wet if they stay in the boat, and don't want stink on them if the thing fails, so, Men of Great Courage that they are, many bail before the rapids and these kind of agreements are designed to keep them in the boat.

Here, I'm not clear what the deal is. Maybe they want to monetize the leasing business by selling it off to someone like a GECAS, or maybe private equity. You know how Wall Street douchebags often want to do these types of transactions under an assertion that one can "unlock the value" of component pieces of an integrated business. These often come to tears of course. But the Wall Street guys get plenty of $$ from the process.

Or, maybe they're concerned that when the NTSB report comes out it is going to castigate parts of the operation such that a major customer like AMC is forced to flee. (And AMC can certainly transition to other carriers. The generals love 747s, but they can do all sorts of things to make another carrier a viable substutute provider over time. 777s and 767s for pax at Omni. 747s and 777s and 767s for Cargo at Kalitta. Maybe even new business lines at carriers. ATI has flight attendants and the specs to carry pax, for example, and operates 767s. It's all doable.) That would be a big hit.

So maybe the execs are preparing for that kind of turbulence ahead. I might even give those "These kinds of things might happen in the future" disclaimers in the financial statements a scrub to see if there's anything new in there; they're generally like the Book of Revelations as far as being able to be interpreted to mean anything, but that could be an interesting exercise and food for thought.
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