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Old 07-21-2019, 08:16 AM
  #181  
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Originally Posted by flyguy23 View Post
That is not at all how that went down with Republic. The new contract was signed well in advance of the bankruptcy filing and not touched during ch. 11. The company wanted all labor disputes settled before filing in order to ease the restructuring process. VERY different game from what's going on with Atlas. Republic made it clear the pilots were very much part of the future success of the company while Atlas seems to be playing a much different game.
It was late when I wrote the initial post and so my timeline may have been off but the events did happen. I remember a large number of shares were sold off and it created a bear market in the RAH stocks. Prices dropped from around $8/share to $1.96. My sign on bonus was paid out and I put 100% into RAH at $1.93 a few days later. The company then announced the new contract and share prices went up to $5.96/share over night, which gave me a nice 304% increase on my sign on investment.

The BK was announced almost immediately afterwards and most debts were discharged, the stocks again started to fall and the company was eventual delisted from nasdaq, but pilot morale started going up.

The morale was low, prior to the contract. The overall relationship between pilots and management was not at all pretty and I even remember a few groups trying to strike over the conditions and amount of time that it was taking to get a new contract. Eventually, they got the LBFO contract. The pilots then voted that in.
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Old 07-21-2019, 11:48 AM
  #182  
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Originally Posted by RyeMex View Post
So, in a recent SEC filing it has come to light that the top 5 executives at AAWH have all been granted retention bonuses: $500,000 each if they stay on through 2020, and an additional $1 Million each if they stay on through the end of 2021.

One could read this in one of two ways: either we are about to file Ch. 11 bankruptcy protection (anyone see that article about how much Debt we have taken on?) or we are about to be sold.

Just a little clarification for those who might think that the company being sold would be a good thing (as in, Amazon) and thus a reason to get on property, keep this in mind:

In the latest scope negotiation with the company, the company said that they want scope that will allow them to vastly grow their dry leasing business. I.E., they want the ability to start leasing out our fleet without leasing the crews along with it.

Additionally, the company has implied that they want to make sure that in the next CBA that the pilots are not tied to the airframes. They think that if the pilots on property have the right to fly our own airframes (translation: our job security) that they will not be able to sell the company as easily.

AAWH has big plans in the future. Unfortunately, these plans do not seem to include any of the crewmembers who have grown this airline on their backs.

Remember, we do not have a single ACMI agreement with Amazon. We have leased Amazon airframes for a period of 10 years, and then separately have leased crew services for a period of 7 years (of which, we have maybe 3.5 remaining). The deal was intentionally written so that, after 7 years (or even sooner with 180 days written notice), all of the crewmembers at Atlas/Southern will be kicked off of the airplanes that they have been flying.
FYI, for those that are interested here is the filing info:

Retention Agreements

In order to facilitate an effective leadership transition and to promote business continuity, each of the Company’s other named executive officers, Adam R. Kokas, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary, Spencer Schwartz, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Michael T. Steen, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, was granted a retention bonus opportunity as follows: subject to continued employment, each recipient would become entitled to receive $500,000 as of December 31, 2020 and $1,000,000 as of December 31, 2021. Each executive would also be eligible to receive any unpaid portion of the retention bonus upon a termination by the Company without “cause,” by the executive for “good reason,” or upon the executive’s death or “disability” (in each case as such term is defined in the applicable award agreement).

A copy of the Company’s related press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.

Item 8.01 Other Events.

In connection with the changes to the Company’s leadership referred to above, the Board approved certain amendments to the Company’s Corporate Governance Principles (as amended, the “Amended Principles”), which shall be effective as of the Transition Date. Among other things, the Amended Principles provide that a Lead Independent Director may be appointed any time the Chairman of the Board is not an independent director. A copy of the Amended Principles is posted on the Company’s website at Home - Atlas Air Worldwide.
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Old 07-21-2019, 05:50 PM
  #183  
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Originally Posted by wjcandee View Post
I can't imagine that Amazon would ever want to deal directly with pilots' unions. And have only one basket for its eggs. So it makes no sense.
Amazon would never deal with a pilot union, and would never tolerate one on their property after any acquisition whole or in part of AAWH’s fleet. AAWH can deal with the union headaches till the takeover happens. In the meantime delay and delay any new contract for the pilots which is exactly what’s been happening.

Look at the global picture so far. Amazon is putting ads out weekly on LinkedIn and trade publications looking for personnel with airline and operational management experience. They are poaching every FedEx and UPS executive they can. They’ve moved into the old Comair operations building in CVG and doing millions in upgrades to it.

They’re running a shadow operation right behind Atlas and Southern schedulers and dispatchers. Making decisions on how much if any extra fuel a Captain can put on, routings etc. That’s not hearsay.

We have the fleet plan, 20 767’s on the ramp plus spares and 20 737s to be delivered thru May 2021.

Now for those retention agreements, 1.5 million on top of the 66 million the top 5 executives get if Amazon takes their warrants for 40% of Atlas stock, takes operational control or moves company headquarters out of NY. 1.5 million to be paid out Dec 31 2021, coincidentally that’s 6 months after Amazon is opening their 1.5 billion Prime Air hub at CVG June 2021. Oh look! There’s a 6 month termination clause Amazon has in their CMI contract, how convenient....They can cut the Atlas and Southern crews loose without cause at any time.

Now the execs are on record saying they want no scope limitations that would prevent greatly increased dry leasing or sale of airframes without the pilots. If the arbitrator rules in their favor this fall they’ll get exactly what they want. No job protections for any pilot here.

IMHO the timing and coincidences are just too glaring taken in context with all the behind the curtain maneuvering Amazon is doing.
I see a scenario where very shortly after the CVG hub opens Amazon says “Thanks AAWH for your support and guidance these past 5 years on how to run an airline, we’ll take it from here. Tough luck about your crews but your execs have been well taken care of...your newly unemployed pilots can apply at our new non union Prime Air if they wish”

Whatever happens the pilots will get the short end of the stick.
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Old 07-21-2019, 06:10 PM
  #184  
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Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Amazon would never deal with a pilot union, and would never tolerate one on their property after any acquisition whole or in part of AAWH’s fleet. AAWH can deal with the union headaches till the takeover happens. In the meantime delay and delay any new contract for the pilots which is exactly what’s been happening.

Look at the global picture so far. Amazon is putting ads out weekly on LinkedIn and trade publications looking for personnel with airline and operational management experience. They are poaching every FedEx and UPS executive they can. They’ve moved into the old Comair operations building in CVG and doing millions in upgrades to it.


Possibly. AAWW has many routes that are huge money makers- that can’t be transferred.

If Amazon wants to get into some of these select markets - it’s helps to have the routes already.

Furthermore. A new certificate requires years of work. New books, proving runs, route authority, ETOPS certificates, the list goes on. You just don’t wake up and get 777 ETOPS into Hong Kong overnight.


They’re running a shadow operation right behind Atlas and Southern schedulers and dispatchers. Making decisions on how much if any extra fuel a Captain can put on, routings etc. That’s not hearsay.

We have the fleet plan, 20 767’s on the ramp plus spares and 20 737s to be delivered thru May 2021.

Now for those retention agreements, 1.5 million on top of the 66 million the top 5 executives get if Amazon takes their warrants for 40% of Atlas stock, takes operational control or moves company headquarters out of NY. 1.5 million to be paid out Dec 31 2021, coincidentally that’s 6 months after Amazon is opening their 1.5 billion Prime Air hub at CVG June 2021. Oh look! There’s a 6 month termination clause Amazon has in their CMI contract, how convenient....They can cut the Atlas and Southern crews loose without cause at any time.

Now the execs are on record saying they want no scope limitations that would prevent greatly increased dry leasing or sale of airframes without the pilots. If the arbitrator rules in their favor this fall they’ll get exactly what they want. No job protections for any pilot here.

IMHO the timing and coincidences are just too glaring taken in context with all the behind the curtain maneuvering Amazon is doing.
I see a scenario where very shortly after the CVG hub opens Amazon says “Thanks AAWH for your support and guidance these past 5 years on how to run an airline, we’ll take it from here. Tough luck about your crews but your execs have been well taken care of...your newly unemployed pilots can apply at our new non union Prime Air if they wish”

Whatever happens the pilots will get the short end of the stick.
Possibly. AAWW has many routes that are huge money makers- that can’t be transferred.

If Amazon wants to get into some of these select markets - it’s helps to have the routes already.

Furthermore. A new certificate requires years of work. New books, proving runs, route authority, ETOPS certificates, the list goes on. You just don’t wake up and get 777 ETOPS into Hong Kong overnight.
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Old 07-21-2019, 07:34 PM
  #185  
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Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Amazon would never deal with a pilot union, and would never tolerate one on their property after any acquisition whole or in part of AAWH’s fleet. AAWH can deal with the union headaches till the takeover happens. In the meantime delay and delay any new contract for the pilots which is exactly what’s been happening.

Look at the global picture so far. Amazon is putting ads out weekly on LinkedIn and trade publications looking for personnel with airline and operational management experience. They are poaching every FedEx and UPS executive they can. They’ve moved into the old Comair operations building in CVG and doing millions in upgrades to it.

They’re running a shadow operation right behind Atlas and Southern schedulers and dispatchers. Making decisions on how much if any extra fuel a Captain can put on, routings etc. That’s not hearsay.

We have the fleet plan, 20 767’s on the ramp plus spares and 20 737s to be delivered thru May 2021.

Now for those retention agreements, 1.5 million on top of the 66 million the top 5 executives get if Amazon takes their warrants for 40% of Atlas stock, takes operational control or moves company headquarters out of NY. 1.5 million to be paid out Dec 31 2021, coincidentally that’s 6 months after Amazon is opening their 1.5 billion Prime Air hub at CVG June 2021. Oh look! There’s a 6 month termination clause Amazon has in their CMI contract, how convenient....They can cut the Atlas and Southern crews loose without cause at any time.

Now the execs are on record saying they want no scope limitations that would prevent greatly increased dry leasing or sale of airframes without the pilots. If the arbitrator rules in their favor this fall they’ll get exactly what they want. No job protections for any pilot here.

IMHO the timing and coincidences are just too glaring taken in context with all the behind the curtain maneuvering Amazon is doing.
I see a scenario where very shortly after the CVG hub opens Amazon says “Thanks AAWH for your support and guidance these past 5 years on how to run an airline, we’ll take it from here. Tough luck about your crews but your execs have been well taken care of...your newly unemployed pilots can apply at our new non union Prime Air if they wish”

Whatever happens the pilots will get the short end of the stick.
Even if they do that they're never going to successfully stop a large pilot group from unionizing and they will need a large pilot group.
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Old 07-21-2019, 08:03 PM
  #186  
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Originally Posted by dwight3 View Post
Even if they do that they're never going to successfully stop a large pilot group from unionizing and they will need a large pilot group.
Thts right
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Old 07-22-2019, 03:20 AM
  #187  
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Not certain just how many 747's Atlas have but seems everyone is mentioning Amazon and what "if" they pull the flying etc., but no mention that DHL is stopping 747 flying by the end of 2020. How is that going to also impact them?
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Old 07-22-2019, 03:42 AM
  #188  
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Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Amazon would never deal with a pilot union, and would never tolerate one on their property after any acquisition whole or in part of AAWH’s fleet.
Agreed they wouldn't want to have to deal directly with a pilot union. The way to avoid that is to not own/operate an airline, because Amazon has no choice whatsoever as to whether pilots at an airline they started from scratch can/will unionize. It would 100-percent happen within the first 5 years. And there's no way Amazon could ever think that they could treat their pilots "well enough" to avoid unionization. JetBlue was giving their pilots daily BJs, and they still ended up with a union. My own feeling is that for safety and other reasons, airline management is always better off in the Big Picture to have a pilot union on their property.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
can deal with the union headaches till the takeover happens. In the meantime delay and delay any new contract for the pilots which is exactly what’s been happening.
Amazon has been publicly-indicating that it wants Atlas to resolve its labor issues, and is willing to start moving planes if they don't. It's the opposite of what you're saying. That Atlas continues to screw around actually shows that it is not directly a tool of Amazon.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Look at the global picture so far. Amazon is putting ads out weekly on LinkedIn and trade publications looking for personnel with airline and operational management experience. They are poaching every FedEx and UPS executive they can. They’ve moved into the old Comair operations building in CVG and doing millions in upgrades to it.
A lot of those folks are in maintenance, etc., insofar as Amazon is now a substantial lessee of aircraft. Those folks are also experts in sorting hub operations, something that Amazon is going to be doing a lot of itself. But no question that in order to purchase transportation effectively/efficiently, they hired people who understand airline operations. They did the same thing with railroad operations people, specifically related to TOFC, but I don't expect them to be buying and taking over the Union Pacific.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
They’re running a shadow operation right behind Atlas and Southern schedulers and dispatchers. Making decisions on how much if any extra fuel a Captain can put on, routings etc. That’s not hearsay.
What leg each airline handles is something they can and should choose. The structure of the network, ditto. I'm dubious that Amazon is telling specific pilots that they can/can't load specific amounts of extra fuel. General fuel-loading policies are, of course, a big deal throughout the airline industry worldwide, as they have been for over a decade. As the party paying for the fuel, I'm not surprised that Amazon might engage on the issue, but it's hard to imagine them getting involved on the granular per-flight level, and I believe that that would be improper. Sounds like this is something that has been misconstrued, but I of course don't know.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
We have the fleet plan, 20 767’s on the ramp plus spares and 20 737s to be delivered thru May 2021.
I'm not sure the significance of this. And ATSG has 22 767s plus spares, rising to a total of 30. ATSG was the initial collaborator on the whole "private network" thing, and runs the ground side for now, with Amazon starting to run certain sort operations.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Now for those retention agreements, 1.5 million on top of the 66 million the top 5 executives get if Amazon takes their warrants for 40% of Atlas stock, takes operational control or moves company headquarters out of NY. 1.5 million to be paid out Dec 31 2021, coincidentally that’s 6 months after Amazon is opening their 1.5 billion Prime Air hub at CVG June 2021. Oh look! There’s a 6 month termination clause Amazon has in their CMI contract, how convenient....They can cut the Atlas and Southern crews loose without cause at any time.
By itself, I don't see anything pernicious about the structure of the CMI contracts. (The retention agreements are another thing.) Any CMI contract with anyone is going to have a termination-for-convenience clause, and 6 months is a typical time. Some have shorter notice periods. ATSG has the same thing. Leases typically do not have such clauses, because the lessor is taking on a substantial capital investment to service the contract. However, the guaranteed lease period is typically shorter than the outside time period that the lessee may want the aircraft; usually long enough for the lessor to recoup its investment. After that, there are options for the lessee to extend the term, and anyone can always voluntarily renegotiate the terms. Amazon has already extended the leases on the CAM (ATSG) 767-200s.


Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Now the execs are on record saying they want no scope limitations that would prevent greatly increased dry leasing or sale of airframes without the pilots. If the arbitrator rules in their favor this fall they’ll get exactly what they want. No job protections for any pilot here.
The deal is that Atlas is and should be incentivized to reliably-operate the aircraft under pain of the lessee getting someone else to operate them. That's standard. In any event, a scope clause isn't going to preclude a lessee from placing the aircraft elsewhere, because it's not Atlas's aircraft to place. If you want to encourage Amazon to lease their aircraft from a neutral third party (like GECAS) instead Titan/Andromeda, etc., try to mess with the lessee's ability to get anyone it wants to operate its planes. Amazon's 737F leases are from GECAS. That's likely because GECAS is getting into that business in a big way because it has existing 737-800 feedstock coming off lease that it can convert, but I don't think it helps to give GECAS another marketing angle with Amazon. Ironically, it's that ability to move aircraft that Amazon is using to put pressure on Atlas to make a deal with the pilots. All that said, there is always a chance that the AAWW executives may be being encouraged by Wall Street douchebags to "unlock the value" of AAWW by disintegrating, and selling off the leasing subsidiaries, but it likely has little to do with Amazon.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
IMHO the timing and coincidences are just too glaring taken in context with all the behind the curtain maneuvering Amazon is doing.
I see a scenario where very shortly after the CVG hub opens Amazon says “Thanks AAWH for your support and guidance these past 5 years on how to run an airline, we’ll take it from here. Tough luck about your crews but your execs have been well taken care of...your newly unemployed pilots can apply at our new non union Prime Air if they wish”
Well, the best way to make a small fortune in the airline business is to start with a big one. Is Amazon leadership that stupid? I doubt it, but who knows. I don't make the connections that you do with the timing of the new hub. The lease and operation agreements were developed at a time that Amazon had no firm plans to operate its own sorting hub. That the Amazon Air experiment has been generally-successful for them, that they accordingly moved from a simple cross-dock operation to a very-big-change/decision to sort individual packages at a hub, and that they quickly outgrew DHL's capabilities are all important factors in that timing. They could have pulled out on the hub idea well into its construction, but haven't.

Originally Posted by Turbine1 View Post
Whatever happens the pilots will get the short end of the stick.
Maybe. Or pilots could look at this as a customer that will end up paying for their young kids' college education, provided that they can make a deal with the a-hole management of their airline. This important customer has, publicly at least, advocated for that airline to get its employee-relations house in order. Vilifying a single customer that has less leverage than AMC does isn't necessarily the most-effective strategy. Maybe it is, but maybe it isn't. Maybe this works when the labor pool is relatively-uneducated, but pilots in general are smart people with an active interest and understanding of their employer's business, and in the same boat in many ways. I think that it's probably more-accurate to view Amazon as a knowledgeable arms-length consumer of Atlas's services than a co-conspirator in an effort to screw employees.
That Amazon is so-actively-involved in designing its network and monitoring its operation might actually be a good thing, because it is keenly-aware on a daily basis of the ability of Atlas to carry out its contract, immediately aware of the direct effect of the current tightness in the pilot labor market on Atlas's ability to staff its operations with suitably-competent pilots. And it is of course aware of the fact that Atlas crashed one of Amazon's leased planes, after a year or so of concerning operational incidents involving new pilots. For me, that bent aircraft at PSM was a huge red flag that the whole world could see, but a lot of Atlas people at the time, frankly, poo-pooed it. It will be interesting to see how the NTSB fits it into the overall picture. We're hearing that Southern is having a raft of these kinds of things, although none have been dramatic enough yet to burble to the surface. Lets hope that AAWW gets its house in order before one does, or some government entity is going to make them do so in a way that is going to be painful for the pilots as well.

Last edited by wjcandee; 07-22-2019 at 04:16 AM.
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Old 07-22-2019, 06:29 AM
  #189  
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DHL stopping all 747 flying by the end of 2020?
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Old 07-22-2019, 06:33 AM
  #190  
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This ^^^..What ...wjcandee wrote
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