AAWW losing 2 AMZ planes
09-14-2019, 01:04 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,803
Originally Posted by wjcandee
Well, I certainly don't have access to those numbers, and I respect you, so I stand corrected. I have a feeling it depends upon whether the day/night transition rules are implicated on a particular route, because I know how many extra pilots it takes at that point, but that the overall number is lower is interesting.
So I should correct my analysis to the following:
Amazon has added 8 aircraft this year at the most-expensive of the three carriers for it to use, and upped the tempo of the 14 aircraft that were already there, apparently because that carrier can staff the additional work, has labor peace, and is operating reliably.
Similarly, it has added routes and increased tempo at the carrier that, although it does not have labor peace, has extra capacity in planes and pilots and a proud and experienced pilot group that gets the job done despite the toxic labor relations there.
In short, Amazon seems to be rewarding performance and capability rather than playing some Machiavellian game.
So I should correct my analysis to the following:
Amazon has added 8 aircraft this year at the most-expensive of the three carriers for it to use, and upped the tempo of the 14 aircraft that were already there, apparently because that carrier can staff the additional work, has labor peace, and is operating reliably.
Similarly, it has added routes and increased tempo at the carrier that, although it does not have labor peace, has extra capacity in planes and pilots and a proud and experienced pilot group that gets the job done despite the toxic labor relations there.
In short, Amazon seems to be rewarding performance and capability rather than playing some Machiavellian game.
09-14-2019, 01:06 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 638
Well I definitely stand corrected myself on the two planes going to ATSG. I didn't think it likely not because Atlas is so great (quite the opposite operationally last couple months) but because I didn't think ATSG had any slack themselves to add the jets short notice. ATI is 300 pilots and the junior captain is Aug '18 according to APC. ABX is 250 pilots and junior captain is...well never mind.
Point being: ATI is pretty tapped out for new captains considering their junior CA has been there a year. ABX has the experienced FOs to upgrade but relatively expensive. And neither outfit has the pilot pool to absorb more than a couple jets at a time simply because of their size. ATSG is taking 10 more jets for Amazon in addition to this. That would most certainly mean street captains for ATI and maybe even for ABX. I really wonder how Amazon could move any more jets from Atlas even if it really wanted to.
Lastly this is not going to help in the attrition situation at Atlas which is also got some major growth planned with the 737 fleet. Is there really anyone else out there that could take 15 737s all in 2020? I really doubt it. And no Mesa is probably not in play because of the major Training/OpSpec differences to run a cargo operation like that.
But hey I didn't think we'd be sending ATSG those 2 jets so what do I know?
Point being: ATI is pretty tapped out for new captains considering their junior CA has been there a year. ABX has the experienced FOs to upgrade but relatively expensive. And neither outfit has the pilot pool to absorb more than a couple jets at a time simply because of their size. ATSG is taking 10 more jets for Amazon in addition to this. That would most certainly mean street captains for ATI and maybe even for ABX. I really wonder how Amazon could move any more jets from Atlas even if it really wanted to.
Lastly this is not going to help in the attrition situation at Atlas which is also got some major growth planned with the 737 fleet. Is there really anyone else out there that could take 15 737s all in 2020? I really doubt it. And no Mesa is probably not in play because of the major Training/OpSpec differences to run a cargo operation like that.
But hey I didn't think we'd be sending ATSG those 2 jets so what do I know?
09-14-2019, 01:11 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,803
Originally Posted by wjcandee
Well, I certainly don't have access to those numbers, and I respect you, so I stand corrected. I have a feeling it depends upon whether the day/night transition rules are implicated on a particular route, because I know how many extra pilots it takes at that point, but that the overall number is lower is interesting.
So I should correct my analysis to the following:
Amazon has added 8 aircraft this year at the most-expensive of the three carriers for it to use, and upped the tempo of the 14 aircraft that were already there, apparently because that carrier can staff the additional work, has labor peace, and is operating reliably.
Similarly, it has added routes and increased tempo at the carrier that, although it does not have labor peace, has extra capacity in planes and pilots and a proud and experienced pilot group that gets the job done despite the toxic labor relations there.
In short, Amazon seems to be rewarding performance and capability rather than playing some Machiavellian game.
So I should correct my analysis to the following:
Amazon has added 8 aircraft this year at the most-expensive of the three carriers for it to use, and upped the tempo of the 14 aircraft that were already there, apparently because that carrier can staff the additional work, has labor peace, and is operating reliably.
Similarly, it has added routes and increased tempo at the carrier that, although it does not have labor peace, has extra capacity in planes and pilots and a proud and experienced pilot group that gets the job done despite the toxic labor relations there.
In short, Amazon seems to be rewarding performance and capability rather than playing some Machiavellian game.
09-14-2019, 02:20 PM
#14
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 52
“Hope springs eternal”
I’m always amazed at pilots optimism. In someways it’s an asset. Like never giving up on a emergency situation on a flight deck.
Other times, like business... well....
One of the hardest things to teach a military aviator, is knowing when to eject! Sometimes the plane is just lost.
Good luck former colleagues and friends.
I’m always amazed at pilots optimism. In someways it’s an asset. Like never giving up on a emergency situation on a flight deck.
Other times, like business... well....
One of the hardest things to teach a military aviator, is knowing when to eject! Sometimes the plane is just lost.
Good luck former colleagues and friends.
09-14-2019, 02:27 PM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 492
IPilot: Very interesting post.
I had two thoughts. First, you're right about the 10 (now 12) that ATI is taking on in two years. It was to be 5 in 2019, 5 in 2020. The ratio changed at Amazon's request to 6 and 4. Now 2 more from Atlas. So that's 8 this year, of which 3 are in-service, and 2 (plus 1049A) that are in conformity at ILN. One of the three in-service was already operating by ATI for UPS before being painted for Amazon, but at a much-lower tempo.
To me, 8 is a big number, but I guess they have plans to staff them. Plus 4 more in 2020, probably beginning no sooner than March, judging from when the two now in conversion arrived in TLV.
Second, at ABX, there was a drip-drip reduction of DHL, and apparently an upcoming loss of Aeromex to (Holy Crikeys!) 21Air, which presently has its two POS 767-200s at Stambaugh for heavy checks in order to take over the contracts. We will see how long that lasts, but in the meantime, there was some mid-year slack and further-expected slack at ABX in both aircraft and pilots. Nobody has said it, but I think the guys there are getting pretty-busy again and stand to be busier.
I had two thoughts. First, you're right about the 10 (now 12) that ATI is taking on in two years. It was to be 5 in 2019, 5 in 2020. The ratio changed at Amazon's request to 6 and 4. Now 2 more from Atlas. So that's 8 this year, of which 3 are in-service, and 2 (plus 1049A) that are in conformity at ILN. One of the three in-service was already operating by ATI for UPS before being painted for Amazon, but at a much-lower tempo.
To me, 8 is a big number, but I guess they have plans to staff them. Plus 4 more in 2020, probably beginning no sooner than March, judging from when the two now in conversion arrived in TLV.
Second, at ABX, there was a drip-drip reduction of DHL, and apparently an upcoming loss of Aeromex to (Holy Crikeys!) 21Air, which presently has its two POS 767-200s at Stambaugh for heavy checks in order to take over the contracts. We will see how long that lasts, but in the meantime, there was some mid-year slack and further-expected slack at ABX in both aircraft and pilots. Nobody has said it, but I think the guys there are getting pretty-busy again and stand to be busier.
09-14-2019, 02:43 PM
#16
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 638
I have to wonder if Atlas and ATSG is blindly saying yes to everything Amazon wants and sorting the details out later. I find it really hard to believe ATSG can expand their operation that much that quickly. Atlas barely eeked it out and ultimately started to fail even with the major growth ending with the last Amazon 767 delivery several months ago.
ATI and ABX's contracts aren't all that great (not like they have Delta guys lining up for a fast upgrade). They can attract pilots better than Atlas at the moment but certainly not going to have a wave of pilots when they open the tap to staff up for all this. We're not talking about 1500 hr RJ guys either, they'll need to hire people who can become captain almost instantly.
So I can see it going down like this: Amazon asks Atlas if they can accept all this flying and they said "hell yes!" only to have it blow up in their face. Next Amazon turns to ATSG to see if they can handle it to which they also say "hell yes!" So we'll see if ATSG management can pull a rabbit out of their hat but in 6 months they might be in the same spot Atlas found themselves this summer.
And Amazon will just be left wondering why nobody can staff up properly when all these high paid aviation experts tell them the pilot shortage is a myth.
ATI and ABX's contracts aren't all that great (not like they have Delta guys lining up for a fast upgrade). They can attract pilots better than Atlas at the moment but certainly not going to have a wave of pilots when they open the tap to staff up for all this. We're not talking about 1500 hr RJ guys either, they'll need to hire people who can become captain almost instantly.
So I can see it going down like this: Amazon asks Atlas if they can accept all this flying and they said "hell yes!" only to have it blow up in their face. Next Amazon turns to ATSG to see if they can handle it to which they also say "hell yes!" So we'll see if ATSG management can pull a rabbit out of their hat but in 6 months they might be in the same spot Atlas found themselves this summer.
And Amazon will just be left wondering why nobody can staff up properly when all these high paid aviation experts tell them the pilot shortage is a myth.
09-14-2019, 03:07 PM
#17
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Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,343
I'm confident ABX cab handle an additional 10 airplanes or so. They are still operating at just a fraction of their volume from the Airborne days, and they have enough experience left in the company to absorb airplanes and an additional flood of new- hire first officers. Between them and ATI, Amazon will move these airplanes easily.
I agree with the folks above who say AMZ just wants to move their freight.
In 2019 Atlas has proven:
1.) We're incompetent. We crashed a Prime Air plane and have made no meaningful operational changes.
2.) We're intractable. We failed to make headway on labor negotiations.
3.) We're untrustworthy. We've demonstrated by way of leaked emails a desire to forestall negotiations even after assuring Amazon that we were actively pursuing a solution. So words from both the union and management can't be trusted.
If you want to grow an air cargo operation, you don't do it with an intractable, untrustworthy and incompetent partner.
It's time to generate some kind of result. Unfortunately too much ego and career progression is invested in these positions. Nobody promotes by telling their bosses they are screwed up, so I wouldn't hope for change or corrections from within. It'll take significant external pressure to get us anywhere.
I agree with the folks above who say AMZ just wants to move their freight.
In 2019 Atlas has proven:
1.) We're incompetent. We crashed a Prime Air plane and have made no meaningful operational changes.
2.) We're intractable. We failed to make headway on labor negotiations.
3.) We're untrustworthy. We've demonstrated by way of leaked emails a desire to forestall negotiations even after assuring Amazon that we were actively pursuing a solution. So words from both the union and management can't be trusted.
If you want to grow an air cargo operation, you don't do it with an intractable, untrustworthy and incompetent partner.
It's time to generate some kind of result. Unfortunately too much ego and career progression is invested in these positions. Nobody promotes by telling their bosses they are screwed up, so I wouldn't hope for change or corrections from within. It'll take significant external pressure to get us anywhere.
09-14-2019, 03:07 PM
#18
New Hire
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by iPilot
I have to wonder if Atlas and ATSG is blindly saying yes to everything Amazon wants and sorting the details out later. I find it really hard to believe ATSG can expand their operation that much that quickly. Atlas barely eeked it out and ultimately started to fail even with the major growth ending with the last Amazon 767 delivery several months ago.
ATI and ABX's contracts aren't all that great (not like they have Delta guys lining up for a fast upgrade). They can attract pilots better than Atlas at the moment but certainly not going to have a wave of pilots when they open the tap to staff up for all this. We're not talking about 1500 hr RJ guys either, they'll need to hire people who can become captain almost instantly.
So I can see it going down like this: Amazon asks Atlas if they can accept all this flying and they said "hell yes!" only to have it blow up in their face. Next Amazon turns to ATSG to see if they can handle it to which they also say "hell yes!" So we'll see if ATSG management can pull a rabbit out of their hat but in 6 months they might be in the same spot Atlas found themselves this summer.
And Amazon will just be left wondering why nobody can staff up properly when all these high paid aviation experts tell them the pilot shortage is a myth.
ATI and ABX's contracts aren't all that great (not like they have Delta guys lining up for a fast upgrade). They can attract pilots better than Atlas at the moment but certainly not going to have a wave of pilots when they open the tap to staff up for all this. We're not talking about 1500 hr RJ guys either, they'll need to hire people who can become captain almost instantly.
So I can see it going down like this: Amazon asks Atlas if they can accept all this flying and they said "hell yes!" only to have it blow up in their face. Next Amazon turns to ATSG to see if they can handle it to which they also say "hell yes!" So we'll see if ATSG management can pull a rabbit out of their hat but in 6 months they might be in the same spot Atlas found themselves this summer.
And Amazon will just be left wondering why nobody can staff up properly when all these high paid aviation experts tell them the pilot shortage is a myth.
09-14-2019, 05:10 PM
#19
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Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 683
I can't speak for ATI or ABX, but Omni seems to be hiring at a pretty good clip. Enough so that most of the guys in my class have not consolidated, presumably because they're getting bumped for even newer guys doing OE. I'm not speculating that we're getting freighters (seems unlikely, and I really hope not), but our contract, which, arguably, isn't THAT much better than ATI or ABX, seems to be able to attract candidates, even in the current hiring environment.
09-14-2019, 05:13 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 176
Originally Posted by regionalpilot16
Smartest guy in the room right here... I agree totally (edited to not sound like I was being sarcastic)
UPS and FDX have contingency plans when volume spikes occur. How does Amazon handle this with their ACMI’s? It’s not like they have a flight in ABQ that can stop to pick up excess freight in ELP on the way to SDF. They don’t have the ability to sub an MD-11 for a 767 or a 74 for an MD. What about hot spares?
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