Youll see some passenger carriers die, i think cargo will survive this.
I'm taking bets, I say the following carriers will die.
1. Allegeant
2. Frontier
3. Spirit

The big 3 will be much smaller than they are now. But that's a given.

The ignorant leading the blind, No one knows.

Dah! That's why its a bet!!!

Allegiant maybe.
Frontier less likely.
Spirit survives.

Hard to know how a psychological problem will affect the industry. The virus is one thing, the psychological impact is another. Spirits typical low income / low IQ customer base will probably be the first to spring back. Business customers day by day are getting more comfortable with teleconferencing and realizing the cost savings.
When things first open up, y'all better hope there isn't a second wave that develops. The biased news media will create mass hysteria over it simply because of who's in the White House.

I was thinking Spirit buys one of the other two

The other is Sun Country just got an exemption allowing them to cancel most of their flights and keep the stimulus money. I could see Allegiant getting a similar waiver for most of their flying as well.

So Spirit wanted a waiver on operating flights during this ordeal. Their business model has been to look at the legacy carriers most profitable routes and just go into one of the hubs and operate point to point on those select routes. Routes, mind you that were cultivated over a period of decades. They are by their very nature, redundant and non-essential. Now that times are tough, they no longer want to operate those routes? GMAFB. Completely unnecessary airline and should be left to survive on their own.
Ive heard AMR was struggling. Just finished this month’s Airways article in the 90th anniversary of American. The history is amazing and to see that airline go would be a tragedy (like TWA and PAN AM).

I somehow think the flying public these days wouldn't really care if AA went away, except those that live near a major hub. Airlines are their own worst enemy, how they treat their customers.

AMR - classic American is gone. It America West.

I don’t think the government is going to allow one of the “Big 3” remaining legacies to fail. They may assume some manner of “public ownership” etc but not fail. They aren’t going to let some of the nations largest metropolitan areas (CLT, DFW, MIA, PHX and to an extent DCA) lose their largest carrier. Especially at a time when there simply aren’t any other carriers that could come in and fill that big of a void at the moment.