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They said it wouln't happen anytime soon

Old 05-20-2021, 11:41 AM
  #61  
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Default Fidelity, Amazon back e-plane startup in $368

Beta Technologies Inc., a startup planning to make an electric plane that takes off like a helicopter, roped in $368 million of funding from Fidelity Management & Research Co. and Amazon.com Inc.
Photo courtesy of Beta TechnologiesThe funding will take Beta from the test aircraft it flies now through the construction of a factory and the first deliveries to the U.S. Air Force in 2023, said Kyle Clark, founder and chief executive officer. Fidelity offered to fund the entire round, but the amount was increased to add investors, including Amazon’s Climate Pledge Fund, which seeks startups that can help the internet retailer reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, he said.

“We were way over-subscribed and ended up having a super-strategic and valuable investor set in our first institutional round of funding,” Clark said in an interview. “We were fortunate to have customers early on and have the internal funding to make it this far, which puts us in a wonderful position to maintain a focused path toward commercialization.”

Beta is competing with dozens of startups and large companies, including Boeing Co. and Cessna maker Textron Inc., to produce new aircraft that look like giant toy drones to ferry cargo and eventually people. Beta, like most producers, is designing its aircraft with an on-board pilot and will transition to pilotless aircraft when regulations permit.

Beta, based in South Burlington, Vermont, already has signed up cargo customers, likely one of the first activities to gain regulatory approval before authorities allow the aircraft to carry people.

UPS order

United Parcel Service Inc. agreed to acquire 10 aircraft to fly packages between sorting hubs, and United Therapeutics Corp. wants to use Beta’s aircraft to transport organs to patients. More importantly, the Air Force has requested 60 aircraft and granted airworthiness approval for Beta’s piloted electric aircraft, a first for its Agility Prime Program.

That allows the Air Force to conduct piloted flight tests and bolsters Beta’s parallel effort to gain Federal Aviation Administration certification. The Air Force has agreed to take 30 of the aircraft in 2023 and another 30 in 2024. Beta will then begin to fulfill civilian orders and cover costs from customer pre-payments, Clark said.

Beta’s aircraft has four electric rotors on top and a propeller in the back. The company says it can travel about 290 miles (467 kilometers) on a charge and can tote as much as 1,400 pounds (635 kilograms) of cargo or six people. Blade Urban Air Mobility, which now flies helicopter shuttles in large cities, agreed to acquire 20 of Beta’s aircraft.

“We were impressed with Beta Technologies’ leadership team and its initial focus on logistics and transport,” Matt Peterson, director of new initiatives and corporate development for Amazon, said in an email. “We are excited to see how they will grow and scale with this investment.”

United Therapeutics was an early supporter after that company’s chairman, Martine Rothblatt, persuaded Clark to form his startup. Rothblatt, who is on the Beta’s board of directors, said the Fidelity-led funding allows the company to remain closely held.

Staying private

“As a public company you are legally obligated to disclose competitive-edge-type information,” said Rothblatt, a founder of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. and United Therapeutics. “It’s more in the long-term interest of Beta’s success to not go public.”

Beta is signing up aerospace suppliers for “high touch” structures, interiors and avionics that don’t differ much from current aircraft. The company will focus on motors, controls and configuring batteries, Clark said. The startup has also designed charging stations for the aircraft that it plans to roll out.

The downturn in the aerospace industry that compelled many people to stop flying after Covid-19 has worked to Beta’s advantage, Clark said. Many suppliers have excess inventory and are looking for projects to keep their engineers busy, Clark said.

“The aerospace industry is salivating for programs like this right now,” Clark said. “We’ve been just really fortunate in the appetite that they’ve had to partner with us.”
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Old 05-20-2021, 12:34 PM
  #62  
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Originally Posted by jetlaggy View Post
Beta Technologies Inc., a startup planning to make an electric plane that takes off like a helicopter, roped in $368 million of funding from Fidelity Management & Research Co. and Amazon.com Inc.
Photo courtesy of Beta TechnologiesThe funding will take Beta from the test aircraft it flies now through the construction of a factory and the first deliveries to the U.S. Air Force in 2023, said Kyle Clark, founder and chief executive officer. Fidelity offered to fund the entire round, but the amount was increased to add investors, including Amazon’s Climate Pledge Fund, which seeks startups that can help the internet retailer reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, he said.

“We were way over-subscribed and ended up having a super-strategic and valuable investor set in our first institutional round of funding,” Clark said in an interview. “We were fortunate to have customers early on and have the internal funding to make it this far, which puts us in a wonderful position to maintain a focused path toward commercialization.”

Beta is competing with dozens of startups and large companies, including Boeing Co. and Cessna maker Textron Inc., to produce new aircraft that look like giant toy drones to ferry cargo and eventually people. Beta, like most producers, is designing its aircraft with an on-board pilot and will transition to pilotless aircraft when regulations permit.

Beta, based in South Burlington, Vermont, already has signed up cargo customers, likely one of the first activities to gain regulatory approval before authorities allow the aircraft to carry people.

UPS order

United Parcel Service Inc. agreed to acquire 10 aircraft to fly packages between sorting hubs, and United Therapeutics Corp. wants to use Beta’s aircraft to transport organs to patients. More importantly, the Air Force has requested 60 aircraft and granted airworthiness approval for Beta’s piloted electric aircraft, a first for its Agility Prime Program.

That allows the Air Force to conduct piloted flight tests and bolsters Beta’s parallel effort to gain Federal Aviation Administration certification. The Air Force has agreed to take 30 of the aircraft in 2023 and another 30 in 2024. Beta will then begin to fulfill civilian orders and cover costs from customer pre-payments, Clark said.

Beta’s aircraft has four electric rotors on top and a propeller in the back. The company says it can travel about 290 miles (467 kilometers) on a charge and can tote as much as 1,400 pounds (635 kilograms) of cargo or six people. Blade Urban Air Mobility, which now flies helicopter shuttles in large cities, agreed to acquire 20 of Beta’s aircraft.

“We were impressed with Beta Technologies’ leadership team and its initial focus on logistics and transport,” Matt Peterson, director of new initiatives and corporate development for Amazon, said in an email. “We are excited to see how they will grow and scale with this investment.”

United Therapeutics was an early supporter after that company’s chairman, Martine Rothblatt, persuaded Clark to form his startup. Rothblatt, who is on the Beta’s board of directors, said the Fidelity-led funding allows the company to remain closely held.

Staying private

“As a public company you are legally obligated to disclose competitive-edge-type information,” said Rothblatt, a founder of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. and United Therapeutics. “It’s more in the long-term interest of Beta’s success to not go public.”

Beta is signing up aerospace suppliers for “high touch” structures, interiors and avionics that don’t differ much from current aircraft. The company will focus on motors, controls and configuring batteries, Clark said. The startup has also designed charging stations for the aircraft that it plans to roll out.

The downturn in the aerospace industry that compelled many people to stop flying after Covid-19 has worked to Beta’s advantage, Clark said. Many suppliers have excess inventory and are looking for projects to keep their engineers busy, Clark said.

“The aerospace industry is salivating for programs like this right now,” Clark said. “We’ve been just really fortunate in the appetite that they’ve had to partner with us.”
While you can make the camels nose into the tent argument with this, an aircraft that can only haul 1400 lbs (including pilot initially) less than 300 miles isn’t even a threat to our feeder aircraft. It will be an interesting proof of concept if they can convince the FAA to allow it to fly outside protected airspace and over densely populated neighborhoods. I’m willing to bet Tesla’s self driving semi will be approved first and eat it’s lunch.
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Old 06-17-2021, 03:58 AM
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Originally Posted by 3pointlanding View Post
I once said it was coming and got a lot of blowback. Well, try this.
https://nam03.safelinks.protection.o...amp;reserved=0
I suggest you read the post under FedEx and the A350. Cathy has been working on single pilot A-350s and is well along the way of making it happen. While I am at it the Military.com and Defense Weekly has articles about the testing of AI's in dog fights, with AI winning every time and AI performing in-flight refueling manuevers. Say what you may but automation is coming a whole lot faster then many think.
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Old 06-17-2021, 05:19 AM
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Originally Posted by 3pointlanding View Post
I suggest you read the post under FedEx and the A350. Cathy has been working on single pilot A-350s and is well along the way of making it happen. While I am at it the Military.com and Defense Weekly has articles about the testing of AI's in dog fights, with AI winning every time and AI performing in-flight refueling manuevers. Say what you may but automation is coming a whole lot faster then many think.
The sky is falling. I would suggest you find work somewhere less stressful.
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Old 06-17-2021, 05:38 AM
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I'm on the north side of 65 and the only thing I do do now is fly a desk but there are a lot of my friends that haven't met the golden age and I do keep up with developments.
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Old 06-17-2021, 07:39 AM
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I would think 4 man crews would be the first low hanging fruit to go. The public is just fine with only 3 pilots .
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Old 06-17-2021, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by 3pointlanding View Post
I suggest you read the post under FedEx and the A350. Cathy has been working on single pilot A-350s and is well along the way of making it happen.
They're not doing single-pilot airliners, they're just coming up with mitigation to give the other pilot 60-90 seconds to into the seat. Big difference. BTW that's for cruise flight only.

Originally Posted by 3pointlanding View Post
While I am at it the Military.com and Defense Weekly has articles about the testing of AI's in dog fights, with AI winning every time and AI performing in-flight refueling manuevers. Say what you may but automation is coming a whole lot faster then many think.
AI can win dogfights because of better G tolerance and precise energy management... that's physical, not mental. But dogfights are not the main game anymore, the air battle is mostly going to be stand off... AI can be programmed to weight sensor inputs to try to distinguish countermeasures from real targets, but an experienced human has an intuitive sense for how the human enemy laid out his forces. AI in this context has a lot more in common with an autopilot than with a general. To win battles or wars, you need creative, critical thinking, not a script.

Automation is coming for sure, but it has inherent limits which we don't know how to get around without a generalized AI, which nobody has the slightest idea how to build. Without that, there's still a niche for humans in most jobs.


And if we could create such an AI, there are huge ethical and safety concerns since you're building an intelligent entity which will likely be self-aware...

1. Is it cool to enslave such a being?
2. Is it cool to make most humans obsolete in the economy? You'd end up with the techy ultra-elite protected from the starving, huddled masses by killer AI robots.
3. Is it safe to create a totally non-human entity which likely could figure out how to upgrade itself? If you could add a few hundred terabites of photographic memory to your mind, would you do it?

The people who are considered among the very smartest in tech and also fields like physics are pretty much unanimously concerned about these issues.

Not saying it will never happen, but our jobs are in a grey area where a script likely isn't good enough, so you'd need general AI. Scripts can obviously reduce requirements for relief crews... assuming it's not a hectic flight and you'll actually be able to sleep during your break. But they can't replace a redundant pilot.

Once general AI is actually available it will take a looooong time to certify since it cannot be mapped out or analyzed... the only way for a regulator to evaluate it will be with years of real-world operational experience, with human pilots as a back-stop. Even worse, if it flunks out, you cannot just tweak the gain on a non-deterministic system, you'd have to start all over with the trials. Don't hold your breath. Although cargo has a lower bar than pax.

* script => deterministic algorithm
* general AI => non-deterministic cognition
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Old 06-17-2021, 11:31 AM
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I agree that the next phase of automation is coming, but I disagree with the notion that “cargo” will be affected first. We’ve seen this all before when 4 then 3 cockpits became 2, and 4 then 3 engines became 2.

The Pax industry will see it first because they are the ones who change over their fleets sooner than Freight. These “new” tails will have all the bells and whistles that make this level of automation work.
To an extent, Purple and Brown will see it next because they do purchase new from the Mfg’s. But the ACMI’s will see it last because of the margins the operate under dictate they wring out every cycle before their tails become beer cans and every other tail out there has been exhausted.
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Old 06-17-2021, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
They're not doing single-pilot airliners, they're just coming up with mitigation to give the other pilot 60-90 seconds to into the seat. Big difference. BTW that's for cruise flight only.



AI can win dogfights because of better G tolerance and precise energy management... that's physical, not mental. But dogfights are not the main game anymore, the air battle is mostly going to be stand off... AI can be programmed to weight sensor inputs to try to distinguish countermeasures from real targets, but an experienced human has an intuitive sense for how the human enemy laid out his forces. AI in this context has a lot more in common with an autopilot than with a general. To win battles or wars, you need creative, critical thinking, not a script.

Automation is coming for sure, but it has inherent limits which we don't know how to get around without a generalized AI, which nobody has the slightest idea how to build. Without that, there's still a niche for humans in most jobs.


And if we could create such an AI, there are huge ethical and safety concerns since you're building an intelligent entity which will likely be self-aware...

1. Is it cool to enslave such a being?
2. Is it cool to make most humans obsolete in the economy? You'd end up with the techy ultra-elite protected from the starving, huddled masses by killer AI robots.
3. Is it safe to create a totally non-human entity which likely could figure out how to upgrade itself? If you could add a few hundred terabites of photographic memory to your mind, would you do it?

The people who are considered among the very smartest in tech and also fields like physics are pretty much unanimously concerned about these issues.

Not saying it will never happen, but our jobs are in a grey area where a script likely isn't good enough, so you'd need general AI. Scripts can obviously reduce requirements for relief crews... assuming it's not a hectic flight and you'll actually be able to sleep during your break. But they can't replace a redundant pilot.

Once general AI is actually available it will take a looooong time to certify since it cannot be mapped out or analyzed... the only way for a regulator to evaluate it will be with years of real-world operational experience, with human pilots as a back-stop. Even worse, if it flunks out, you cannot just tweak the gain on a non-deterministic system, you'd have to start all over with the trials. Don't hold your breath. Although cargo has a lower bar than pax.

* script => deterministic algorithm
* general AI => non-deterministic cognition
I don’t care as long as my Amazon package is on time.
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Old 06-17-2021, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyAstarJets View Post
I agree that the next phase of automation is coming, but I disagree with the notion that “cargo” will be affected first. We’ve seen this all before when 4 then 3 cockpits became 2, and 4 then 3 engines became 2.

The Pax industry will see it first because they are the ones who change over their fleets sooner than Freight. These “new” tails will have all the bells and whistles that make this level of automation work.
To an extent, Purple and Brown will see it next because they do purchase new from the Mfg’s. But the ACMI’s will see it last because of the margins the operate under dictate they wring out every cycle before their tails become beer cans and every other tail out there has been exhausted.
This is a great point. "Its coming to cargo first", yet where are the last FEs working still.
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