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They said it wouln't happen anytime soon

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They said it wouln't happen anytime soon

Old 02-26-2021, 05:59 PM
  #31  
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If the cost of insurance exceeds cost of pilots in the flight deck, no one will buy these.
And it is likely that it will.
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Old 02-26-2021, 07:17 PM
  #32  
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Pilotless will most likely happen at some point but not a worry anytime soon. Fear, insurance, ground to air connectivity, AI, whatever will delay the inevitable for many years. Y’all need to focus on the immediate TCAS threat vs the distant.

At least 25% of the pilot force can be reduced in long haul ops not quite overnight but definitely on the horizon . Anything currently requiring more than 2 warm bodies will be reduced to 2. 3=2, 4=2... Wow, still a human up front, not alone and a RoBoBox, less operational insurance, less meals, per diem, hotels, transportation, less 401K match, DC, less health insurance, dental insurance, less pay/compensation, sick leave and of course whining. Yeah, that’s adds up fast so that’s coming for long haul within 20 or less, maybe 10. You could easily do this as well for Pax Carriers as you still have your 2 seat fillers so the whining stops there as well. Reduction of force, easily done, pilot shortage (COVID reduced that) alleviated quite a bit to eventual non-existence or shall we say extinction.

Aviation wise - Stay domestic, stay with 2, stay employed perhaps.

*Autonomous ships (U.S. Navy since 2016) technology well in play and you all have ridden in robot rail somewhere. Look down the road it won’t be too long before that becomes old news regarding long haul heavy rail if/when they can work the issues of railroad crossings/human interaction safety. Still killing folks trying to outrace rail so maybe we’re screwed. Rail across the ocean, now that would be new news.

Last edited by C17B74; 02-26-2021 at 07:41 PM.
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Old 02-27-2021, 12:51 AM
  #33  
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I was paid quite well for the four years I was an “unmanned” aircraft “pilot”. The manpower footprint to operate a datalink flight is quite massive. If it comes to it...I’d be happy to sit in a ground control station again if I could make well into six figures and be home every night. Why you guys so scared? It’s not like Atlantic crossings are exciting.....
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Old 02-27-2021, 12:21 PM
  #34  
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It’s awareness not scaredness (I’m a lyrical genius, just to make it work)

Six fig is one thing, multi-Six fig is another and a driving force for many which seems fairly obvious. Cush box job on the ground and home every night if that’s the goal fantastic and definitely a good deal (I’m in maybe, when 60-65, can’t walk and must be wheel chair accessible). Plenty of differences in actually piloting and Play Station monitoring; agree crossings suck but most have lost their puppy love for flight anyway - but definitely still relish the skill set required and ability to hone/further refine their efforts during challenging events with actual skin in the game. Just a sense of being plugged in per say.

Personally - predominantly pre-covid, somewhat OK here and there - travel/chilling, visiting friends/relatives, awesome food and hiking around on some else’s dime while pain is minimal compared to my eventual “golden years” = priceless. Having had plenty of pentagon cubicle type work, ground station monitoring can’t be challenging until the “Big Red Light” comes on so that’s a huge plus with nights at the hacienda. When I flip to geriatric, sign me up for 2 on 5 off in a decade or so. Timing is everything!!! Looking forward to it if I become bored near retirement and need some good hobby money, thanks for the fallback I might just run with it down the line.
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Old 02-28-2021, 07:07 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Seneca Pilot View Post
When pilot-less happens it would start in freight. No fiery crash with seats full of passengers, just freight lost and that is replaceable. I think the greater threat to freight pilots is the world where you go online to order a product but instead of the company shipping that product you download a single use license to print the product on your 3D printer. That tech exists now and doesn't require coordination with the airspace system and complete security of data to prevent digital hijacking of a plane. Could also severely reduce trucking fleets.
That's an interesting point but it's a very long way off. Probably someday, to some degree.

My brother-in-law is an engineer for a very large printer company and they are aggressively expanding into 3D printers (aka AM). But almost their entire market focus is for rapid prototyping and very small niche production runs. For large mass-market production 3D printers aren't economical by a long shot, and I'm sure that cost delta is more than enough to cover shipping.

Also good 3D printers are expensive.

A typical 3D printer works in one material. To make anything even slightly complicated (moving parts, electronics) you'd need multiple printers, or modules within one printer. Now it's getting large and really expensive.

Then if you build multiple parts, is the printer going to assemble them for you? How about painting/coating?

Also many products probably can't be made via home AM at all, without stocks of MANY raw materials. Shampoo, food, electronic components, especially semi-conductor chips. Some metal applications require forging/heat treating to get the desired properties (ex bearings and races).

Home AM might cut into the delivery business for drink coasters, cast-iron pans, door hinges, and metal shelf brackets, but anything else is a very long way off.
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Old 02-28-2021, 08:30 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
That's an interesting point but it's a very long way off. Probably someday, to some degree.

My brother-in-law is an engineer for a very large printer company and they are aggressively expanding into 3D printers (aka AM). But almost their entire market focus is for rapid prototyping and very small niche production runs. For large mass-market production 3D printers aren't economical by a long shot, and I'm sure that cost delta is more than enough to cover shipping.

Also good 3D printers are expensive.

A typical 3D printer works in one material. To make anything even slightly complicated (moving parts, electronics) you'd need multiple printers, or modules within one printer. Now it's getting large and really expensive.

Then if you build multiple parts, is the printer going to assemble them for you? How about painting/coating?

Also many products probably can't be made via home AM at all, without stocks of MANY raw materials. Shampoo, food, electronic components, especially semi-conductor chips. Some metal applications require forging/heat treating to get the desired properties (ex bearings and races).

Home AM might cut into the delivery business for drink coasters, cast-iron pans, door hinges, and metal shelf brackets, but anything else is a very long way off.

All valid points. Keep in mind twenty years ago I had a cell phone that was an inch thick and had the computing power of a casio calculator. Now my phone is no more that 1/4 in. thick and has more computer power than the best mainframes from the sixties. Technology accelerates very quickly.

Auto parts are being made today with 3D. Think how many parts are purely plastic in our world. Plastic interior parts that are now shipping from Asia to the US to be installed could simply be licensed with a CAD file and be produced locally with no need for labor. There is a factory not too far from me that makes plastic interior parts for Ford. They have lots of employees and go through many molds each year due to the wear caused in the injection molding process. What if they could do the same thing with ten printers and a couple of people to manage the computers? It is coming. Business will always drive towards higher productivity with lower labor costs. If fuels lots of innovation. Labor is the highest cost and the biggest source of headaches for business. Get them out and profits soar.

New McDonald’s In Phoenix Run Entirely By Robots - News Examiner
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Old 02-28-2021, 08:56 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Seneca Pilot View Post

Auto parts are being made today with 3D. Think how many parts are purely plastic in our world. Plastic interior parts that are now shipping from Asia to the US to be installed could simply be licensed with a CAD file and be produced locally with no need for labor. There is a factory not too far from me that makes plastic interior parts for Ford. They have lots of employees and go through many molds each year due to the wear caused in the injection molding process. What if they could do the same thing with ten printers and a couple of people to manage the computers? It is coming.
Depends on volume. You can automate something like injection molding without using AM. Traditional processes are typically cheaper for larger production runs... 3D printers have lots of parts and wear out. AM might be useful to make the injection mold itself.

The advantage of a 3D printer is flexibility... it can do many different things with just a data file. For mass production there are AM applications, but in that case the AM machine might be custom-built for that specific niche. One example is extremely light cabin parts for aircraft... with AM they can build very complex, bizarre looking shapes which actually have a strength to weight advantage over simpler cast/forged/machined parts. The bizarre shapes focus the strength along the axis' where it's needed, while not carry extra weight that's an artifact of the machining process. Machining such complex shapes would take too long, if it's even possible for a specific shape.

https://www.tctmagazine.com/additive...ircraft-cabin/


Surpised it took them that long.

But soon enough we'll be confronted with ethical and political hurdles for automation. In the past advances in automation produced a net gain in economics and QOL for society... we're approaching a point where it might just leave a bunch of folks out in the cold.
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Old 02-28-2021, 09:48 AM
  #38  
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FWIW I read an article on this, same cover photo and all, about two years ago. Maybe more. The article stated that they were “in the final stages of testing before flight” and that the historic flight was imminent. If the “final stages before flight” to the actual flight has take over two years, I’m not too worried about it. This type of thing is coming, but I’m not losing sleep over it. Forward thinking my finances a bit more? Sure. But this may or may not happen in my career. There’s far more to this than the parlor trick and physical act of single pilot or pilotless ops. Slowtations have been single pilot certified since, what? The ‘80s?

People also talk about how we used to have five pilots in the cockpit. Now we’re down to two... We’ve never had five pilots. Five cockpit crew members, yes. But they weren’t pilots. Even the origins of the flight engineer are rooted in the history of aircraft mechanics. The fact that eventually the majority were certified pilots was by way of pilot unions. Not by operational need.

When single pilot ops do eventually happen, it will be a long phase in. How many decades did it take before all flight engineers no longer had a home? I would put money that anyone who is at their career destination right now, even as an FO, is safe. They might eventually find themselves a little lonely in the cockpit, but they will still have a job.
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Old 03-01-2021, 12:39 AM
  #39  
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Most likely true. Unfortunately odds are is that some sort of significant “pandemic” rolls thru well before other deplaning of operators happens. Pandora’s box only slightly opened last year. Remain vigilant as best we can.
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:19 AM
  #40  
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Just sayin.



The world's first family to live in a 3D-printed home - BBC News
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