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Old 03-08-2021, 10:55 AM   #51  
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Originally Posted by whalesurfer View Post
Many good points but here’s where I disagree.

As far as the certification process - it’s absolutely irrelevant. FAA is America’s most corrupt government agency. Well, let me rephrase it; the FBI holds that distinction but FAA comes next.

Just look at all the ‘exemptions’ they bless airlines and aircraft manufacturers with. You need something done? Pay the money and you’ll get an exemption. Cargo pilot rest exemption, TCAS exemptions for cargo airplanes (finally repealed), B737MAX MCAS fiasco, the list goes on. Only the FBI manages to exceed FAA’s levels of corruption and bias. So if the airlines and the manufacturers really want it - it’ll happen. Period.

Costs of modifying those jets? Peanuts! At least when comparing to the costs of pay, medicals, pensions, etc. of those “extra” pilots.

It wasn’t that long ago the Canadian authorities were in the final stages of turning a DC8 into a 2-pilot airplane. The FO seat had an extended sliding rail which went all the way to the FE position. Maybe some more senior folks here remember why it was never implemented and later adopted in the Us but all cargo airlines were following that development.



Will it happen anytime soon? No way. Our careers are ‘safe’. (A relative term, right?)
However yes, it’ll absolutely happen. We all like to cling on to what we know but with time things change. Otherwise we’d still be using rotary phones and faxing in our resume and Bitcoin wouldn't even exist..
The fact is flight engineers and navigators are long gone. One day FOs will be gone too. Few decades later the “captains” will sip their latés in their air-conditioned doublewide trailers while operating heavy jets around the world. ..and one day they’ll be gone too.
Closer than you think
https://www.businessinsider.com/airb...g-tests-2020-7
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Old 03-08-2021, 11:23 AM   #52  
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One very important thing we as parents and grandparents need not to forget is our kids.
What will they do to put food on the table and provide for us old folks?
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Old 03-08-2021, 12:07 PM   #53  
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One very important thing we as parents and grandparents need not to forget is our kids.
What will they do to put food on the table and provide for us old folks?
Good question. It's one that the governments of the world will have to address one day as well.

Looking objectively, if they're able to get AI at a point where they can safely fly one of the most complex machines in the world, then there's not much else that it can't do. What will everyone do for work? There can't be enough jobs in the AI sector to replace all the ones that were already replaced!

They will have to come up with some sort of UBI system or make healthcare, food, and housing free. How else will people make a living? Maybe they'll just keeping printing money and take care of everyone that way. IDK.
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Old 03-08-2021, 01:12 PM   #54  
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One very important thing we as parents and grandparents need not to forget is our kids.
What will they do to put food on the table and provide for us old folks?
When a substantial amount of Maintenance/Sustainment AI machines are created and are able to maintain themselves as well, that’s the nail in the coffin.

*confused about “provide for us old folks?” They(us) should be able to provide for themselves. Planning for your offspring to take care of you is not a reason to have offspring. Dang maybe I missed that forgone entitlement - OR I may have misread the intent?

It’s not like the vast majority living with parents now are going to be able to provide much of anything is a fair guess...

Can’t just keep printing money as inflation will increase significantly, taxes will increase, value is devalued, etc. hence the onset on Socialism becomes reality and the......, wait a minute/hold the phone- crap we’re on our way now aren’t we geeez. Enjoy the ride while we can I guess and we’ll see what we have in the endgame.

Last edited by C17B74; 03-08-2021 at 01:26 PM.
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Old 03-16-2021, 08:32 AM   #55  
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Tesla automation at work (more fatalities)...


https://www.foxnews.com/auto/nhtsa-i...sla-crash-semi
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Old 03-16-2021, 10:14 AM   #56  
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Tesla automation at work (more fatalities)...


https://www.foxnews.com/auto/nhtsa-i...sla-crash-semi
You can choose to have whatever attitude you want about this stuff, of course there will be accidents and there is still work to be done, but the autopilot per mile driven is already *far* safer than a human per mile driven. People crash their cars all day every day. I know everyone thinks they are a better driver than everyone else on the road, but statistically the machines are already significantly better than we are.
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Old 03-17-2021, 09:38 AM   #57  
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You can choose to have whatever attitude you want about this stuff, of course there will be accidents and there is still work to be done, but the autopilot per mile driven is already *far* safer than a human per mile driven. People crash their cars all day every day. I know everyone thinks they are a better driver than everyone else on the road, but statistically the machines are already significantly better than we are.
People are far more understanding of human error... trusting automation is a higher hurdle. Same with legal liability.
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Old 03-20-2021, 09:06 AM   #58  
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What's going on currently: See this link to Reliable Robotics and watch the video.
https://reliable.co/

Here is a Bloomberg Business Week Article, requires a subscription to read but I have the print version and it's two pages and they are well on the way to certification.
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Old 03-30-2021, 01:00 AM   #59  
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Yeah, heard last week from some FAA folks (water cooler talk) certification process was definitely farther ahead than anyone here thought. Imagine that, well stop imagining and just enjoy the view folks, nothing to see here, move along, nothing to see here. Step by step.
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Old 04-22-2021, 02:51 PM   #60  
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You can choose to have whatever attitude you want about this stuff, of course there will be accidents and there is still work to be done, but the autopilot per mile driven is already *far* safer than a human per mile driven. People crash their cars all day every day. I know everyone thinks they are a better driver than everyone else on the road, but statistically the machines are already significantly better than we are.
Worth pointing out that statistics actually don't exist for that yet.

What we have stats for is expensive niche cars (that matters because it determines the driver demographic) operating with automation SUPERVISED by human drivers, who are again of a certain demographic.
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