They said it wouln't happen anytime soon
03-01-2021, 10:16 AM
#41
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Joined APC: May 2013
Position: No Hats No Jackets No PAX
Posts: 1,493
That is very cool and ingenious and definitely will happen just not overnight. Overall, it’s just laying down structure/parts maybe foundation but really only walls in this case (plenty of non-printed wood in the ceiling/roof pics) As said before, in the future humans will be literally be pushed out by the robots when they show up slapping 3D things together. 2 parts to this Revolution. Until then, flesh will integrate the windows, kitchen appliances, plumbing, minutiae, etc. and be reduced over time and NONE of this is new. In half a century look how much the work force has been reduced in specific areas.
Glad to have used the rotary phone, watched “New Coke” fail miserably and get a ride in a Volkswagen “Thing” when they were newish, but hey watch out = Remember the Milkman? In Some Places, He’s Back - imagine that! Only makes sense with grocery convenience these days. I won’t be around thankfully, but teenagers might just be floating around in space cruise ships unable to walk, fat and happy like in the movie Wall-E. Seems some are just waiting for the space cruisers now. Maybe if I made it to 80, doubtful though.
*So I really need a 3D printer AND an android to slap something I want together. Parts/material/liquids on hand of course and then and only then I can stop ordering online. Looking forward to some of it.
Glad to have used the rotary phone, watched “New Coke” fail miserably and get a ride in a Volkswagen “Thing” when they were newish, but hey watch out = Remember the Milkman? In Some Places, He’s Back - imagine that! Only makes sense with grocery convenience these days. I won’t be around thankfully, but teenagers might just be floating around in space cruise ships unable to walk, fat and happy like in the movie Wall-E. Seems some are just waiting for the space cruisers now. Maybe if I made it to 80, doubtful though.
*So I really need a 3D printer AND an android to slap something I want together. Parts/material/liquids on hand of course and then and only then I can stop ordering online. Looking forward to some of it.
Last edited by C17B74; 03-01-2021 at 10:42 AM.
03-01-2021, 01:48 PM
#42
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,339
Originally Posted by CL300
..
To get a single pilot airplane certified, all the important switches need to be within reach of the guy flying the machine. As it stands right now, those switches are scattered all over the panel and overhead. Boeing and Airbus would (probably) gladly do the research and development to move all these switches and make them accessible to the one pilot, but A. there’s no room to fit them all within reach, and B. It’ll cost millions and millions to research it, develop it and certify it. Who is supposed to pay for all that development? The airlines buying the plane. The manufacturers will have to add millions of dollars to the price of each copy to get a return on their legwork.
To get a single pilot airplane certified, all the important switches need to be within reach of the guy flying the machine. As it stands right now, those switches are scattered all over the panel and overhead. Boeing and Airbus would (probably) gladly do the research and development to move all these switches and make them accessible to the one pilot, but A. there’s no room to fit them all within reach, and B. It’ll cost millions and millions to research it, develop it and certify it. Who is supposed to pay for all that development? The airlines buying the plane. The manufacturers will have to add millions of dollars to the price of each copy to get a return on their legwork.
As far as the certification process - it’s absolutely irrelevant. FAA is America’s most corrupt government agency. Well, let me rephrase it; the FBI holds that distinction but FAA comes next.
Just look at all the ‘exemptions’ they bless airlines and aircraft manufacturers with. You need something done? Pay the money and you’ll get an exemption. Cargo pilot rest exemption, TCAS exemptions for cargo airplanes (finally repealed), B737MAX MCAS fiasco, the list goes on. Only the FBI manages to exceed FAA’s levels of corruption and bias. So if the airlines and the manufacturers really want it - it’ll happen. Period.
Costs of modifying those jets? Peanuts! At least when comparing to the costs of pay, medicals, pensions, etc. of those “extra” pilots.
It wasn’t that long ago the Canadian authorities were in the final stages of turning a DC8 into a 2-pilot airplane. The FO seat had an extended sliding rail which went all the way to the FE position. Maybe some more senior folks here remember why it was never implemented and later adopted in the Us but all cargo airlines were following that development.
Originally Posted by CL300
...but I guarantee my employer won’t pay one extra nickel more than necessary to buy another airframe, let alone a few million more per plane. They’ll gladly continue paying us hundreds of dollars to continue operating the airframes we already own. It doesn’t make any sense. But then again, we get our flight releases on dot matrix paper, so that confirms the frugality.
However yes, it’ll absolutely happen. We all like to cling on to what we know but with time things change. Otherwise we’d still be using rotary phones and faxing in our resume and Bitcoin wouldn't even exist..
The fact is flight engineers and navigators are long gone. One day FOs will be gone too. Few decades later the “captains” will sip their latés in their air-conditioned doublewide trailers while operating heavy jets around the world. ..and one day they’ll be gone too.
03-01-2021, 06:07 PM
#43
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Originally Posted by whalesurfer
Will it happen anytime soon? No way. Our careers are ‘safe’. (A relative term, right?)
However yes, it’ll absolutely happen. We all like to cling on to what we know but with time things change. Otherwise we’d still be using rotary phones and faxing in our resume and Bitcoin wouldn't even exist..
The fact is flight engineers and navigators are long gone. One day FOs will be gone too. Few decades later the “captains” will sip their latés in their air-conditioned doublewide trailers while operating heavy jets around the world. ..and one day they’ll be gone too.
However yes, it’ll absolutely happen. We all like to cling on to what we know but with time things change. Otherwise we’d still be using rotary phones and faxing in our resume and Bitcoin wouldn't even exist..
The fact is flight engineers and navigators are long gone. One day FOs will be gone too. Few decades later the “captains” will sip their latés in their air-conditioned doublewide trailers while operating heavy jets around the world. ..and one day they’ll be gone too.
Although at least in the USAF most of those engineers are loadmasters and the navigators are embedded deep within the Staff World flying that LGD-6D. Large Gray Desk w/6 Drawers I flew up at Staff for awhile. I will enjoy my seat til the music stops, eventually.
03-01-2021, 07:15 PM
#44
Banned
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 894
Originally Posted by C17B74
^^^^^^^^^^^This^^^^^^^^^^^
Although at least in the USAF most of those engineers are loadmasters and the navigators are embedded deep within the Staff World flying that LGD-6D. Large Gray Desk w/6 Drawers I flew up at Staff for awhile. I will enjoy my seat til the music stops, eventually.
Although at least in the USAF most of those engineers are loadmasters and the navigators are embedded deep within the Staff World flying that LGD-6D. Large Gray Desk w/6 Drawers I flew up at Staff for awhile. I will enjoy my seat til the music stops, eventually.
03-02-2021, 10:46 AM
#45
VHR-very happily retired
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Retired
Posts: 1,409
Originally Posted by C17B74
Pilotless will most likely happen at some point but not a worry anytime soon. Fear, insurance, ground to air connectivity, AI, whatever will delay the inevitable for many years. Y’all need to focus on the immediate TCAS threat vs the distant.
At least 25% of the pilot force can be reduced in long haul ops not quite overnight but definitely on the horizon . Anything currently requiring more than 2 warm bodies will be reduced to 2. 3=2, 4=2... Wow, still a human up front, not alone and a RoBoBox, less operational insurance, less meals, per diem, hotels, transportation, less 401K match, DC, less health insurance, dental insurance, less pay/compensation, sick leave and of course whining. Yeah, that’s adds up fast so that’s coming for long haul within 20 or less, maybe 10. You could easily do this as well for Pax Carriers as you still have your 2 seat fillers so the whining stops there as well. Reduction of force, easily done, pilot shortage (COVID reduced that) alleviated quite a bit to eventual non-existence or shall we say extinction.
Aviation wise - Stay domestic, stay with 2, stay employed perhaps.
*Autonomous ships (U.S. Navy since 2016) technology well in play and you all have ridden in robot rail somewhere. Look down the road it won’t be too long before that becomes old news regarding long haul heavy rail if/when they can work the issues of railroad crossings/human interaction safety. Still killing folks trying to outrace rail so maybe we’re screwed. Rail across the ocean, now that would be new news.
At least 25% of the pilot force can be reduced in long haul ops not quite overnight but definitely on the horizon . Anything currently requiring more than 2 warm bodies will be reduced to 2. 3=2, 4=2... Wow, still a human up front, not alone and a RoBoBox, less operational insurance, less meals, per diem, hotels, transportation, less 401K match, DC, less health insurance, dental insurance, less pay/compensation, sick leave and of course whining. Yeah, that’s adds up fast so that’s coming for long haul within 20 or less, maybe 10. You could easily do this as well for Pax Carriers as you still have your 2 seat fillers so the whining stops there as well. Reduction of force, easily done, pilot shortage (COVID reduced that) alleviated quite a bit to eventual non-existence or shall we say extinction.
Aviation wise - Stay domestic, stay with 2, stay employed perhaps.
*Autonomous ships (U.S. Navy since 2016) technology well in play and you all have ridden in robot rail somewhere. Look down the road it won’t be too long before that becomes old news regarding long haul heavy rail if/when they can work the issues of railroad crossings/human interaction safety. Still killing folks trying to outrace rail so maybe we’re screwed. Rail across the ocean, now that would be new news.
03-02-2021, 11:29 AM
#46
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Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 997
Originally Posted by maxjet
My brain tell me that you are right. My gut tells me differently. Look how easily the American public has been swayed by media coverage of Covid, Donald Trump, BLM, Cancel Culture, and many other things. NOW if the media came out against it, things could go the other way. I guess it may be up to who ever owns the media.
03-02-2021, 11:56 AM
#47
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Joined APC: Jun 2019
Position: B747 FO
Posts: 1,105
Originally Posted by TOGALOCK
I get what your saying, but the examples you mentioned were/are major issues that affect everyone, have people on both sides of their respective beliefs very heated, and leads to delightfully dramatic family fallouts at holiday dinner tables around the world. As a result, those things have garnered non-stop 24 hour news coverage. At the end of the day, the general public doesn’t give two turds who or what is flying their plane, just as long as they get from point A to point B alive and for cheap. Unless CNN started running 24/7 news coverage about how human pilots are all racist, trump supporting, covid-19 infected, non-mask wearing, horrible people who only successfully land the plane undamaged 75% of the time, the public isn’t going to care. Human nature is to trust and revert to what you know. Right now, that is human pilots. Sure there are some tech geeks who would love to see this happen for the sake of the “wow/cool” factor, but unless pilotless aircraft are well proven and there is significant and solid evidence that human piloted planes are death traps when compared to AI, the public will not be rioting at the airport demanding that pilots be replaced with robots. The general population just doesn’t care enough to be the catalyst that powers this to reality.
03-02-2021, 01:58 PM
#48
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Originally Posted by 123494
Do you think I should get a different career now? I’m scared of losing it to the machines
03-02-2021, 02:19 PM
#49
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Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,538
Originally Posted by C17B74
That is very cool and ingenious and definitely will happen just not overnight. Overall, it’s just laying down structure/parts maybe foundation but really only walls in this case (plenty of non-printed wood in the ceiling/roof pics) As said before, in the future humans will be literally be pushed out by the robots when they show up slapping 3D things together. 2 parts to this Revolution. Until then, flesh will integrate the windows, kitchen appliances, plumbing, minutiae, etc. and be reduced over time and NONE of this is new. In half a century look how much the work force has been reduced in specific areas.
Glad to have used the rotary phone, watched “New Coke” fail miserably and get a ride in a Volkswagen “Thing” when they were newish, but hey watch out = Remember the Milkman? In Some Places, He’s Back - imagine that! Only makes sense with grocery convenience these days. I won’t be around thankfully, but teenagers might just be floating around in space cruise ships unable to walk, fat and happy like in the movie Wall-E. Seems some are just waiting for the space cruisers now. Maybe if I made it to 80, doubtful though.
*So I really need a 3D printer AND an android to slap something I want together. Parts/material/liquids on hand of course and then and only then I can stop ordering online. Looking forward to some of it.
Glad to have used the rotary phone, watched “New Coke” fail miserably and get a ride in a Volkswagen “Thing” when they were newish, but hey watch out = Remember the Milkman? In Some Places, He’s Back - imagine that! Only makes sense with grocery convenience these days. I won’t be around thankfully, but teenagers might just be floating around in space cruise ships unable to walk, fat and happy like in the movie Wall-E. Seems some are just waiting for the space cruisers now. Maybe if I made it to 80, doubtful though.
*So I really need a 3D printer AND an android to slap something I want together. Parts/material/liquids on hand of course and then and only then I can stop ordering online. Looking forward to some of it.
The reason for the pursuit of 3D is in that article. The cost savings for the 3D printed home was more than 20% and the builder stated that with the knowledge they gained that they believed the next one would be a 33% savings. As everyone has pointed out all the materials are the same, so clearly the cost savings was labor. For that savings the industry will continue to focus on these types of tech. There are also robotic brick laying machines.
Having said all that, we have time.
03-02-2021, 06:46 PM
#50
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
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Posts: 39,210
Originally Posted by Seneca Pilot
There are also robotic brick laying machines.
If you need a very long, straight, tall brick wall on a big job site, apparently the math can work out.
My understanding is that the impetus to develop the machines was a shortage of skilled bricklayers, not cost savings per se.
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