Autonomous flight... contractual protections?
#1
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Autonomous flight... contractual protections?
This question is intended to be an offshoot of the other post about FedEx testing single pilot flight, however, I felt the topic was deserving of its own post and discussion.
Do any of the unions at cargo/ACMIs have any contractual protections for automation eventually reducing the pilot workforce??? Does any place have it written into the contract what happens (ei guaranteed income or retirement benefits) if jobs are replaced/eliminated by machines?
I'm sure someone will slam me and will post how it will NEVER happen , but reducing pilots on augmented crews, then single pilot, and eventually, fully automated flight WILL happen. I personally doubt fully pilotless will happen in the span of any of our careers, but nobody on here holds the crystal ball. Those of us with 30-35+ years left in the industry need to plan for the contingency that we will likely see a significant reduction of force that will negatively effect our careers at some point prior to age 65. That will happen at cargo long before we see it in pax flying. Pilotless may seem crazy right now, however, a LOT can happen with technology over the next 20-25-30 years. I could see some of the long-haul over water stuff going pilotless in the years I have left, and as we know those are typically the most lucrative routes and can maximize days off. If those routes suddenly disappear, that could definitely change the landscape of what those final years of our careers will look like. Combine that with the plot force being halved by single pilot and/reduced crews, and our relative spot on the seniority list can be quite a bit different than many are hoping and planning for.
The article referenced in the other post:
https://theaircurrent.com/technology/fedex-and-sikorsky-quietly-begin-single-pilot-tests-for-cargo-airliners/
Do any of the unions at cargo/ACMIs have any contractual protections for automation eventually reducing the pilot workforce??? Does any place have it written into the contract what happens (ei guaranteed income or retirement benefits) if jobs are replaced/eliminated by machines?
I'm sure someone will slam me and will post how it will NEVER happen , but reducing pilots on augmented crews, then single pilot, and eventually, fully automated flight WILL happen. I personally doubt fully pilotless will happen in the span of any of our careers, but nobody on here holds the crystal ball. Those of us with 30-35+ years left in the industry need to plan for the contingency that we will likely see a significant reduction of force that will negatively effect our careers at some point prior to age 65. That will happen at cargo long before we see it in pax flying. Pilotless may seem crazy right now, however, a LOT can happen with technology over the next 20-25-30 years. I could see some of the long-haul over water stuff going pilotless in the years I have left, and as we know those are typically the most lucrative routes and can maximize days off. If those routes suddenly disappear, that could definitely change the landscape of what those final years of our careers will look like. Combine that with the plot force being halved by single pilot and/reduced crews, and our relative spot on the seniority list can be quite a bit different than many are hoping and planning for.
The article referenced in the other post:
https://theaircurrent.com/technology/fedex-and-sikorsky-quietly-begin-single-pilot-tests-for-cargo-airliners/
Last edited by Celeste; 03-06-2021 at 11:14 PM.
#2
It might be worth shooting for a protection of full pay to age 65, or 30 years, for anyone on property, either the highest scale achieved by the pilot, or the highest scale period.
That would actually be in the company's best interest too, because when autonomous airliners actually start to appear you'll see it coming a looooong way off. Since it will start in cargo first, no pilot in his right mind would take a career job at a cargo airline unless he was over 50 to begin with.
Almost guaranteed that autonomous aircraft, especially any kind of retrofit to existing types, will need extensive "IOE" with a full crew, and then eventually single PM.
So the cargo operators would probably need to incentive recruiting, retention, and stability starting years before and during the transition period.
But with all that said, I still think it's further off for big jets than people think. There's a big unresolved incompatibility between supervision and security, and for a heavy "security" translates to "9/11". You'll need an ability to supervise/control the thing from the ground in the case of abnormal ops, but you need to ensure it can't get hacked or jammed... for those non-techies reading this, there exists NO such comms system which could provide both the security and reliability needed.
Such a system could be built at great expense of course but I also think it would have to be integrated with ATC systems... that's another long pole in the tent.
There's a difference between "can" and "will", the divide in this case is large, and will take a lot of money and structural/regulatory change. Who's going to pay for that? Unlike the pax airlines, whose myopic management focus is always next quarter's earnings, the big cargo operators, plus Bezos, might have the inclination and long view to pull it off. But it won't be quick... they've barely got the FAA to approve drones up to 55 lbs, daylight line-of-sight. You need an exemption/waiver for anything beyond that. The bureaucrats will not be falling all over themselves to drive progress... that kind of progress is all downside with no upside for regulators.
Congress could force the issue, but politics. They forced the issue for small drones, but that was (correctly) viewed as something which could enable a brand new economic sector with essentially zero job losses. They won't be quite so eager to force automation of high-paying union jobs.
That would actually be in the company's best interest too, because when autonomous airliners actually start to appear you'll see it coming a looooong way off. Since it will start in cargo first, no pilot in his right mind would take a career job at a cargo airline unless he was over 50 to begin with.
Almost guaranteed that autonomous aircraft, especially any kind of retrofit to existing types, will need extensive "IOE" with a full crew, and then eventually single PM.
So the cargo operators would probably need to incentive recruiting, retention, and stability starting years before and during the transition period.
But with all that said, I still think it's further off for big jets than people think. There's a big unresolved incompatibility between supervision and security, and for a heavy "security" translates to "9/11". You'll need an ability to supervise/control the thing from the ground in the case of abnormal ops, but you need to ensure it can't get hacked or jammed... for those non-techies reading this, there exists NO such comms system which could provide both the security and reliability needed.
Such a system could be built at great expense of course but I also think it would have to be integrated with ATC systems... that's another long pole in the tent.
There's a difference between "can" and "will", the divide in this case is large, and will take a lot of money and structural/regulatory change. Who's going to pay for that? Unlike the pax airlines, whose myopic management focus is always next quarter's earnings, the big cargo operators, plus Bezos, might have the inclination and long view to pull it off. But it won't be quick... they've barely got the FAA to approve drones up to 55 lbs, daylight line-of-sight. You need an exemption/waiver for anything beyond that. The bureaucrats will not be falling all over themselves to drive progress... that kind of progress is all downside with no upside for regulators.
Congress could force the issue, but politics. They forced the issue for small drones, but that was (correctly) viewed as something which could enable a brand new economic sector with essentially zero job losses. They won't be quite so eager to force automation of high-paying union jobs.
#3
This question is intended to be an offshoot of the other post about FedEx testing single pilot flight, however, I felt the topic was deserving of its own post and discussion.
Do any of the unions at cargo/ACMIs have any contractual protections for automation eventually reducing the pilot workforce??? Does any place have it written into the contract what happens (ei guaranteed income or retirement benefits) if jobs are replaced/eliminated by machines?/
Do any of the unions at cargo/ACMIs have any contractual protections for automation eventually reducing the pilot workforce??? Does any place have it written into the contract what happens (ei guaranteed income or retirement benefits) if jobs are replaced/eliminated by machines?/
I am not in the international cargo is at the most risk camp, I personally think that international agreements and proven safe datalink is the long pole in the tent. Completely autonomous “small” aircraft (probably electric) between two low population dense areas for daily repetitive runs will be the harbinger of the “end times,” but even that will precede autonomous 767 size aircraft by 20 years or more. It would only take one autonomous 747 going into the Eiffel Tower or the Cologne cathedral to turn public opinion against autonomous flight for a long time, so when they do it they are going to make sure they do it right - and that equals time.
Bottom line, I was told 4 years ago that I would be out of a job in 5 years due to autonomous cargo aircraft. To date, no meaningful progress has been made that leads me to believe my job is at risk within the next year. UPS continues to buy pesky two seat aircraft.
I feel like we just argue this point in circles on these forums. Someday someone will pull my 30 year old posts to show me how wrong I was.
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