Worst case scenario
 

The FedEx LOA (discussed on several threads from different prospectives) has not been seriously contemplated from a WCS (worst case scenario :mad:)
What can FedEx do, and more importantly, what will it do if the LOA is defeated by the FedEx pilots and the company refuses to improve or renegotiate the terms??

Hire Foreign pilots
This would be the major fear of most FedEx pilots. It would affect junior pilots hard and poolie and FedEx wanna be pilots the hardest. Is it a reasonable fear??
IMHO, for a Paris crew base, yes. If FedEx can legally (via our CBA and whatever courts would hear a (supposed lawsuit) hire pilots outside our working agreement, they could reasonably expect to find qualified pilots within Europe willing to leave other less desirable airlines (Ryanair, Easyjet, etc) to fly for FedEx for what FedEx has offered us. The downside: Labor laws and other work issues. Incompatible work groups (different FedEx pilots flying under different ops specs and different national laws (JAA vs FAR). Crews can't (and wouldn't want to) fly together, disallowing scheduling synergies. Cost of duplicate flight managements and other associated staff functions duplicated. With a small pilots group without much time or personal investment in job, an increased risk that even captains would leave for greener pastures, should opportunities present themselves. A small crew force would be more greatly affected by small changes in staffing. Two pilots leaving on short notice would be a bigger issue than within (our) current 4800+ pilot group. A much increased risk of (successful :eek:) job action owing to cultural differences and more favorable labor laws (especially in France). Last and not least, the negative affect such an action would have on the morale and disposition of US based FedEx pilots. Cooperation, "Fuel Sense", labor peace?? Out the window. :(
Hong Kong. Even less likely to prove successful. Why?? look at the situation on the ground in both the main land (China) and HKG. Chinese airlines are growing by leaps and bounds, so much so they cannot hire enough local talent to fill the slots they have now. The Chinese are as protective, if not more so, than anyone in trying to keep what they see as local jobs for the local team. They are so desperately short they are hiring westerners to fly for their national airlines.
In Hong Kong the main carrier (Cathay) and its sister airline, Dragon air are either hiring or have (some) better terms than FedEx is offering. FedEx would have to compete with a very desirable airline in its own right for pilots willing to live and work in HKG. In reading comments from Cathay pilots on another forum, they are unhappy with several aspects of their working conditions, but in reading their woes, I don't think FedEx would be offering anything that would cause a mass exodus from Cathay (maybe Dragon, but would have to hear from better sources to believe so). The cost of living in HKG is higher than Paris, and unlike Paris, you can't as easily get away from it. Its is also interesting to note that Cathay bases many of its pilots outside of HKG, presumably because of the problem of retaining qualified crews and HKG QOL, FedEx would be competing for the scarce labor willing to work in HKG. HKG is an island, in both the literal and political sense. Living in mainland China may not be an option, even if you wanted to. QOL in HKG is going to require money, more so than it appears the company is willing to fork out. And like Paris, lack of school redemptions will limit interest to very young families or older pilots without school age children. Finally, regarding interest in HKG, I think less pilots will be interested in doing a two year or longer tour in the fragrant city (HKG) than they would Paris. From my experience, most pilots enjoy the HKG layover, but by day 4 they are ready for a change. It would be different living there for sure, in some ways better, but it will still be the crowded place we know from short visits. Again like a European base, hiring pilots and keeping pilots will be a constant battle I think the company doesn't want to get itself involved in.
In closing, could they do an end run around the FedEx pilot group and staff non US based pilots?? Probably yes. Would they be willing to?? Only those at the highest level know the answer. I think it wouldn't take a whole more to make going to either Paris or Hong Kong a reasonable proposition for FedEx families willing to entertain the option. Certainly it will be less than the cost (to FedEx) of going the WCS way.

Don,

I love ya man, but have you ever heard of the word "Paragraph"? Regardless, a nice post!

Make a stand
 

Nice post, Don. I've been thinking some of the same things.

The threat of using labor outside our CBA always seems to loom on the horizon. I say, bring it on! If they could do it now, they would. If they're setting us up to say "well, you voted it down, no one would go," then so be it.

In the end, it comes to the notion that we, FEDEX ALPA, are the best way to get the job done: safe, legal, & reliable. If FredEx has to prove it to himself, go ahead, I say.

We deserve at least a Cathay Expat package. As a former, Subic 49'er, they fooled me once. I understand where Edgar comes from.

I vote NO, with the confidence that we deserve better.

We want to keep FDX freight flown by FDX pilots, but to what extent? What if FDX wants to open an FDA in Rwanda? How about Saudia Arabia? New Guinea? Flint Michigan?

Maybe there is some FDX flying that should be left to someone else?

OK, this is where I draw the F%&*ING LINE!!!! :D

Whatever happened to the "Nobody can do business (and profit) under French labor law? This seems to put the lie to the "We'll just hire foreign pilots" scenario.

The idea of FedEx outsourcing their flying is nothing new in the airfreight industry; DHL has been doing exactly this for years.

DHL currently has lots of different airlines flying for them around the world:

- 4 are 100% DHL owned airlines; SNAS in Bahrain, EAT in Brussels (Leipzig), DHL Air Ltd. in East Midlands, DHL Aero Expreso in Panama.

- 3 in the US; Astar, ABX, and soon Polar.

- Dozens of others in Hong Kong, China, Africa, the Caribbean, etc. fly everything from A-300's to Cessna Caravans as contractors to DHL.

Published web sites list DHL as having 420 aircraft... who knows.

Anyway, the DHL corporate culture is extremely anti-union. They are very happy with the current arrangement of owning or contracting with dozens of airlines around the world. It's an arrangement that is great for them and lousy for pilots.

I don't know if FedEx would go out and establish airlines in France and Hong Kong, but it seems more likely that they would just go out and buy existing airlines and upgrade them.

Like I said, it's great for them and lousy for pilots.

8DRIVER

How much is reliability worth to FedEx?
 

I agree with your points and also believe that the negatives of having foreign pilots fly for FedEx outway the pluses by a long shot. We all know that growth in Asia and Europe is where the future is for FedEx. Reliability has been the key to success for us, so it's just a matter of how much they're willing to pay to get the reliability they need to make CDG and HKG successful. I believe we are the only ones that can provide them with that reliability from the start. Obviously, the company thinks we are too; hence the LOA. Unfortunately, in its current form it is woefully short of our expectations. The Cathay package should be used as a baseline. We deserve at least that, so count me out until then.

SG

Before FDX I flew -10s and -11's for Gemini.

We used to pick up DHL freight in Cincinnati, fly across the pond, and drop it off at Midlands near Nottingham. It would be loaded up into the foreign carrier DHL Air's 757's and distributed across Europe.

The Midlands operation was in a brand-new facility with great aircraft and easily as good a reliability rate as our CDG hub. Don't fool yourself.

Thing is... the nature of the market is to continually seek efficiencies. This never stops. I don't know if we can escape this sort of outsourcing in the long run.

People bitched about the crap service at Walmart, but notice how many other stores (from home repair to sports merchandise to pet supplies) have adopted their model.......

I think the coorperate question is the one of reliability. They preached the pitch of the world on time, and the on time guarentee, with the reliability rate. I think the unknowns with outsourcing in Hong Kong and the labor laws in France are something the company is not ready to deal with if we are supposed to go over there and be productive and competitive. The monetary compensation is nice, should be more, health care is a must, some mention of supplements for schooling would also be nice, But the STV is showstopper for me! Not only no, but HE!! NO. I am not in the military, and I don't want to get deployed for 90 day stints every 18 months evertime management feels like filling a FDA.

Protect the inversables, vote NO!

With the high cost of everything in HKG, I would venture to guess that FDX will be charging a price to it's customers in China, consistant with the higher price of everything over there. They obviously would like to just stick that extra profit in the bank, instead of paying it's pilots a fair COLA to operate and live in an expensive economy.

The other problem with foreign airlines flying your stuff rears its ugly head when they start flying your materials into the US.

ALPA told us when we signed our last contract that we had the "best SCOPE clause in the whole industry". Since then, there was the purchase of ABX (the biggest violation of this clause - Note: our gripe is with DHL NOT ABX), Polar (soon to be), and contracting with Lufthansa, NWA, Kalitta, etc., etc. Our lawyers say that we may still prevail in our scope lawsuit with DHL, but it'll come at a huge cost in dollars and years - and if and when we win, we may not be too far from exactly where we are right now.

FedEx has a larger pilot group and more resources but if you let that camel into your tent, you may be able to fend off the migration of foreign carriers for a longer time than we did, but it will happen and when it does, it'll really p*ss you all off. It did us.

Think long and hard about opening that Pandora’s box. Once you do, it'll never shut.

8DRIVER

If it wasn't for that, this LOA would only impact the small minority that would bid overseas.

But with STV, it has the potential to impact all of us. And all of us vote.

If the money was right, the STV would not be as much of a factor, because it would go senior. Bump the rent to $4000, and make the STV pay a 20% override, and no one would ever have to go unless they were senior enough to hold it.

I'm not saying I like the STV....I hate it, but I don't think it would impact us as much as people think. The way I read it...and I could be wrong, the company can only use the STV method of filling the bases for the first two years of the opening of the new domicile. Also, if you get screwed, you are out of the loop for the next 6 STV bids if it gets that far....It still sucks, but it doesn't suck as bad.

If the FDA is 50 crews, that's 300(50X6) crews who could be STV'd. 100 of whom would(could) be sent twice?

Sitting 50 percent captain on the Bus? This still has the reach to get to you.

Right. The STV is essentially an acknowledgement by management that the LOA is grossly lacking. But it's not just the money. The people at those FDAs need more money, yes, but they should't have to forego any of the previously agreed upon provisions of our CBA in order to receive that money.

Cost neutral
 

FedEx cost neutraled us on the first contract , so cost neutral the FDA's. I'm sure the union can figure the costs associated with the SIBA, just give us the money they would have spent and call it even. :D:rolleyes: If you believe they will I have some Florida property to sell you.:D

I just don't see FedEx starting from scratch buying other airlines or starting new ones overseas where the climate is unknown. We are a known quantity to the company, and that is bottom line number 1 (reliable). FedEx makes a ton of money, and they are not going to jeaprodize that by getting us all worked up over a few millions dollars in overall costs. If they were to start a war with us I can see pilots becoming very conservative during ocean crossings if something isn't right with a system, etc... Air turn backs would likely get pretty bad, I don't think they are willing to deal with that considering all the $$ they are making. This is a pretty conservative company, they are just trying to get the HKG/CDG domiciles as cheaply as they can for now. Turn it down, and another offer will likely come up.

Be weary of any deal that has a supposed time-line that must be met. If they needed a deal so soon it would be done already. How long would it take to start a whole new entity from scratch or integrate an existing company...way longer than getting us to fly the planes we already have.

Just my $.02

Back at the STV thing, if we let it go by, it provides a loop hole for the company to open an FDA and inverse guys into it and continue to inverse the junior folks into a new FDA as long as they see fit.

For example, if Hong Kong proves to be too costly or inconvient with the three hour car ride, they decide to move us somewhere else. Now you take another city, and maybe the folks in Hong Kong, don't feel like going and you start at the bottom all over again....again, and again. STV is too much control of a civilians life, this is not the military and we choose to work here, we didn't choose to get sent away for 90 days to sit in a hotel. If I wanted that, I would go on deployment with some of the P-3 Bubbas....

HJ

Or they decide to open an MD-10 FDA in HK in 2009 and close out the airbus. That gives them two more year and a new batch of saps.

Question: Not sure an MD-10 can make climb gradient in some of those places. Any thought?

OK. Substitute 757. Or 777. Or MD-11. Same concept.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't UPS' intra-European ops operated by Star Air (Maersk) 767-200 freighters?

We didn't get no stinkin' hotels, but living in the Q on deployment was a lot better than hot bunkin' on the boat! Plus we got 45 beers every 2 days instead of 2 beers every 45 days! ;)