So, do you still think cargo will be going unmanned in the near future?
 

I'm really surprised that no one has posted this already. After reading this, I don't believe that pilots will be phased out in the near, or even distant, future. The NTSB has really hit the nail on the head in this one!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...h_N.htm?csp=34

(All emphasis added by myself)

NTSB finds operator errors in drone crash

By Alan Levin, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Federal accident investigators entered a new era of oversight Tuesday, issuing their first-ever findings in an inquiry involving an unmanned aircraft.
A Customs and Border Protection robotic plane crashed near the Mexican border last year. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) found a rash of problems with the way the Predator B drone was operated last year by Customs and its manufacturer, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. The NTSB also voted to hold a forum next spring to examine broader safety issues with the burgeoning unmanned aircraft industry.

The Customs' Predator, about the same size as a regional jet, crashed April 25, 2006. No one was injured, but the plane slammed into a hillside near homes in a sparsely populated area north of Nogales, Ariz. A "pilot" flying the single-engine turboprop plane from a trailer at a military base accidentally shut down the plane's engine while attempting to deal with a locked up computer control console, according to the NTSB.

"This was a wake-up call to hopefully everyone," NTSB board member Kitty Higgins said. "This plane crashed without any harm being done. But the potential (to harm) other vehicles and other people on the ground is substantial."

The military uses thousands of drones in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan, and companies seek uses for drones in tasks ranging from law enforcement surveillance to land surveying. The Federal Aviation Administration has issued 55 special permits this year to fly drones in civilian areas. They include everything from long-range planes with a wingspan the size of a Boeing 737 to craft the size and weight of a small kite.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Ariz | National Transportation Safety Board | Predator | Nogales
"What we want to do is get it early before we have a critical mass of these devices flying in the airspace," NTSB Chairman Mark Rosenker said.

NTSB investigators found numerous safety shortfalls with the Customs plane:

•Computers used to control the Predator had locked up at least 16 times in the four months before the accident, yet the failures were not well documented and no attempt was made to determine what caused the problems.

•The drone's pilot was supposed to be monitored by a flight instructor, but the instructor wasn't there when the engine shut down.

•When the Predator's engine stopped, it cut electrical power to key instruments, including the radio transponder that made the plane visible to air-traffic controllers. As a result, nobody knew where the plane went, and it was invisible to other aircraft.

•The Predator's design makes it impossible to restart the engine without a radio link to the ground. By the time the operators realized the drone had lost power, it had descended behind mountains and could not be reached by radio.

"We definitely need to change the mind-set from computer Game Boy to pilot of an aircraft," NTSB board member Steven Chealander said. Customs spokesman Juan Munoz-Torres said the agency hadn't read the NTSB's report and couldn't comment.

I don't think the public is anywhere ready for large unmanned aircraft flying over their homes and schools. I know that I'm not.

Nope! :eek:

It's already happening. The USAF is flying Global Hawk out of Beale AFB California right now. It's not a 747 but considerably larger than the "RJ Sized" Predator.

I think we will see jobs being taken by single pilot or unmanned aircraft within 20 years. The technology will get much better and the accident above will be avoidable.

I think that before any pilots lose their jobs, first, there will be tell-tale indicators. Unmanned freight trains, unmanned container/tanker ships and even unmanned trucks. I think that it will take much longer than 20 years before any civilian pilots are replaced.

Trains haul thousands of tons more than an airplane can. Having a human button pusher on board is not that much of an expense. Conversely, removing the train driver does not save that much. Removing the life support systems and the pilots from an Md-11, 747, A-380 would cause considerable cost savings to the operators. The military is leading the way as many would be U-2 pilots are assigned to Global Hawk and Predator.

It is expensive to pay a pilot $300-400k to fly an airplane (as FDX and UPS do in some cases). If/when the technology comes, the cargo companies will be the first to use it. Don't get me wrong. I dearly hope to be one of those UPS captains making that much some day. It's only due to unions that we enjoy the pay we have now. Eventually the technology will enable the elimination of us and the union busting management at Brown will lead the way. That's why I give us 20 years left to enjoy what we have.

I think it will be a very long time before you see an unmanned heavy aircraft flying over populated areas. Can you imagine the outrage the very first time one of these crashes into a hotel or apartment building? This will set the whole thing back another 20 years.

Two words: Scope Clause.

Look how long it has and will take to pass the age 65 rule. They(FAA) won't get around to unmanned heavy aircraft for at least 20 years. Then they will legislate it for another 20. By then, this job will have killed me.


The military does things I don't even want to know about. Commercial, unmanned flights would be very public, and I promise you the PUBLIC will not go for it. Like someone said, one crash even in a remote area, would set any unmanned vehicle years and then some more years.

I hope not!