Runner

TNT is in talks with Airbus regarding the prospects of a new-build A320 freighter. With the small pool of 757's FedEx will have to draw from, and the retirement of UPS's 72's and eventually the DC-8's, it makes one wonder if Brown and Purple will jump in the mix on any A320F development.

Pilot7576

Runner...

I would never say never, but in the new capts course a few years ago, ups planners said the nb days are over. The only hulls they are interested in are widebodies. Even the 757 is too small for future acquisition. They said they were interested in 767/300 hulls on the used market...of course that was before the new buy of 767's was announced.

YMMV

Pilot7576

ERJ Jay

I have to agree with the end of the Narrow body days. All of the articles about cargo fleet growth have mentioned that while the number of airframes total will increase over the next 15-25 years, the real change is in the WB/NB mix. If you want to grow package volume from Los Angeles to SDF (for example), you have limited amount of time for the aircraft to leave L.A. late enough to get the 5pm overnight drop offs in the area, and still get to SDF for the sort and make the early departures to the east coast to be delivered by the early am. As a result, long term, in order to accommodate projected volume growth while also maintaining schedule/delivery integrity, and guaranteeing low percentage of service failures, most trunk cargo aircraft will increase in gauge, not frequency (fewer flights equals more efficient use of airspace, ramp space, crews, etc). These gauge increases will then filter down the supply/delivery chain. For example, the 744 replaces the MD11 on ANC to HKG, that MD11 replaces the 767 on LA to SDF, that 767 replaces the A300 on the DEN to SDF, the DC8 replaces the 727 on the TLH SDF etc etc. I can't honestly believe that another NB freighter would sell well over the long term. I could see conversion work for exiting airframes to replace some portions of the fleet, but not huge orders.

Just my two cents.

Runner

Good points and I agree that this thing has a 99% chance of never darkening a Brown ramp, given UPS's recent Boeing acquisitions. I do, however see the A320 as a huge possibility for FDX, especially when you consider how hard to come-by 75's are going to be for the foreseeable future. Another theory to consider...has anyone thought about the possibility of FDX hitting the 757 acquisition wall and begin acquiring it's common-type sister that's still in production?

Runner

And yes, I know there's a bean-counter in MEM that has a far better grasp on the 757 market than I do. Lord knows, they probably have checks pre-written for all tail numbers still with pax seats in them.

Rocco

Great points. If you can only land 25 planes per runway per hour or so, then narrow bodies are not the solution if you need more lift.......

bifff15

So wouldn't that mean hub and spoke (FedEx model), or maybe another hub with it's own assorted spokes that help feed the other hubs?...

Rocco

Only so many spokes (so to speak).....too expensive (and political) to add hubs. The model was around before FedEx (I would have to look when) but FedEx made it very successful.