FDX - Some Hard Excess Data to Chew On
 

After perusing the seat seniority data provided in the 08-02 posting, I realized a lot of the important seat seniority information is really missing from the chart provided when you are talking about an "excess" bid vs the std "vacancy" bid.

Thus, after reveiwing the May bidpack seniority lists, and the FDA Training slots on the current Training Letter, I uncovered the following data.

It's quite clear there are plenty of folks at the top who have a lot of "seat choices" if they elect to bid to relieve the excess.

Anyway, here's my analysis of the numbers (...please realize I didn't attempt to match this up with folks who are in training, Flexs, LCAs or those over Age 65 who can't bid a window seat...and didn't consider the fact that everyone can bid to fill the published vacancy positions for MEM 757 Capt/FO and HKG A300/FO)

...hopefully, it still proves useful (encouraging) to some that are worried about getting excessed "off the bottom".

First --- the relevant seat seniority #s not published in the posting.

Domicile - Equipment - Seat - Total # In Seat / Low Seniority

MEM - A300 - Capt - 605 / 2805
MEM - A300 - FO - 549 / 4402

MEM - MD 11 - Capt - 646 / 2533
MEM - MD 11 - FO - 668 / 4270

ANC - MD11 - Capt - 153 / 2778
ANC - MD11 - FO - 226 / 4513

LAX - MD11 - Capt - 78 / 2028
LAX - MD11 - FO - 113 / 4305

HKG - A300 - Capt - 49 / 4009
HKG - A300 - FO - 14 / 4753

MEM - 757 - Capt - 35 / 1562
MEM - 757 - FO - 20 /2995

Next, the "cutoff seniority" required in each seat position to hold a particular seat at 100% in the non-excessed jets:

MEM - 727 - Captains (Excess Target = 30 of 334 total)

MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 96 Capts
LAX - MD11 Capt = Top 149 Capts
MEM - MD11 Capt = Top 197 Capts
ANC - MD11 Capt = Top 219 Capts
MEM - A300 Capt = Top 223 Capts
HKG - A300 Capt = All 334 Capts

MEM - 727 - First Officers (Excess Target = 50 of 293 total )

MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 9 FOs
LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 22 FOs
MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 42 FOs
ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 59 FOs
MEM - A300 - Capt = Top 60 FOs
MEM - 757 - FO = Top 66 FOs
MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 95 FOs
HKG - A300 - Capt = Top 161 FOs
MEM - MD11 - FO = Top 190 FOs
LAX - MD11 - FO = Top 197 FOs
MEM - A300 - FO = Top 221 FOs
ANC - MD11 - FO = Top 243 FOs
HKG - A300 - FO = All 293 FOs

MEM - 727 - Second Officers (Excess Target = 50 of 363 total)

MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 18 SOs
LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 27 SOs
MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 50 SOs
ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 65 SOs
MEM - A300 - Capt = Top 67 SOs
MEM - 757 - FO = Top 78 SOs
MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 87 SOs
HKG - A300 - Capt = Top 137 SOs
MEM - MD11 - FO = Top 161 SOs
LAX - MD11 - FO = Top 162 SOs
MEM - A300 - FO = Top 169 SOs
ANC - MD11 - FO = Top 173 SOs
MEM - 727 - FO = Top 186 SOs
HKG - A300 - FO = Top 350 SOs

(...interesting side note --- there appears to be 105 727 Second Officers currently on passover pay due to approximately 50 727 First Officer who were trained "out-of-seniority order" upon initial hiring since Aug 06...all of these SOs are not necessarily senior to ALL of these 50 FOs, and this is where it could get interesting if the FO "excess" doesn't come "out of the top", given those SOs on passover pay MUST keep 727 FO on their bid to keep their passover pay.)

MEM - DC10 - Captains (Excess Target = 104 of 119 total)

LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 105 Capts
MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 112 Capts
All other Capt positions = All 119 Capts

MEM - DC10 - First Officers (Excess Target = 88 of 97 total)

MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 8 FOs
LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 14 FOs
MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 26 FOs
MEM - A300 -Capt = Top 32 FOs
ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 32 FOs
MEM - 757 - FO = Top 35 FOs
MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 46 FOs
HKG - A300 - Capt = Top 72 FOs
MEM - MD11 - FO = Top 86 FOs
LAX - MD11 - FO = Top 87 FOs
All other FO positions = All 97 FOs

MEM - DC10 - Second Officers (Excess Target = 55 of 116 total)

MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 86
LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 91
MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 106
MEM - A300 - Capt = Top 109
ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 109
MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 110
MEM - 757 - FO = Top 111
HKG - A300 - Capt = All 116
All other FO positions = All 116

(Repeat Disclaimer - I have not taken into account those guys who already bid to leave their seat via a previous vacancy or excess bid...and have no idea how many are over Age 65 and therefore only eligible to go to the back of the Boeing).

OK, OK...I'll be the first to say it --- "I can't believe I just typed all that in!":eek::p:D

Now you know why JL had it out for folks who never upgrade.

I've heard a few folks say don't worry, the more senior guys will voluntarily excess up.

Why should we believe these senior bubbas are going to do that? They haven't done it the last 2 vacancy bids. I'll believe it when I see it.

I still think there is a chance 20-30 727 FO's get pushed down to SO. Maybe more.

But, of course, maybe none.

If everything goes right the widebody seats will get fuller.

BTW, do you know how many DC10 and 727 SOs are 64 or older right now?? That is a positive for the excess bid.

I don't ----- don't have access to that type of data.

Perhaps someone with access via the company or the union can provide that # --- it shouldn't be some big secret.

...and those guys being over 64 isn't a "positive" for those who will still be stuck in the back of the Boeing.

They may see a bunch of 60-63 yr olds moving out --- and then a bunch of 64+ guys moving right back in on top of them.:(

The fewer purple prunes coming back from the SO position to CA or FO is good because it will mean more opportunity for the younger guys to fill up the widebody seats. Which in turn will limit or even eliminate the need to involuntarily excess out of the 727 FO seat to the SO seat. (edit--Remember, too many bubbas going to the Airbus may generate another excess bid after this one)

The positive would be keeping passover pay and seeing some midlevel 727 FOs and SOs moving up.

I'm all over the board on this one. It all depends on what those old guys end up doing. Some may go SO to SO or even retire.

Besides the actions of the purple prunes the more senior under 60 guys in each seat will also make a huge difference. If they move up, all is well. If they all say no thanks, I see involuntary excesses.

The bid won't tell you anything about those who intend to retire off the 10 or 72... they'll let themselves get excessed to some seat or another, and then retire just before going to training.

There were a lot of senior over 60 guys who could not hold a window seat (except for the FDA's) in the last bid because there were no positions available. Now those s/o's or f/o's can move up in any airplane (with the exception of FDA's) as long as their seniority can hold it, regardless of open seats, if they get excessed or bid to relieve excess. My guess is that the bid to relieve excess in the 72 will go fairly senior.

If someone were to really care about finding out the ages of the over 60 crowd, all that person would have to do would be to get the past 5 years worth of FDX ALPA calendars, and note the birthdays of guys "retiring". Then cross reference with a VIPS lookup to see if that person is actually still flying. Anyway, I think that would work, but in fairness, I don't remember how far back they started putting retirements in that calendar. I don't think you'll get that information from either the company or the union.

What we need is a list of over-60 flight engineers, listed by seniority, with the date each one turns 64.

Then those guys themselves can see where they stand. If you're 62, and 150 numbers from the last guy to get a left seat, you may get the idea that you will not make it to the left seat in time to make much of a difference.

Combine that with a trip to 727 panel school and another three years of hubturning domestically, retirement may be more attractive.

It's hard to drink and post. Feeling a little clearer this morning.

Here are some more facts to share.


- If over 64 DC10 SOs go to 727 SO, we will have more than 50 excesses out of the 727 SO seat for folks to voluntarily bid on. Where will 727 SOs choose to go? If they go to 727 FO, it may lead to bumping 727 FOs down. If they go widebody it will be good.

- If a bunch of folks pile into one seat (the Airbus FO seat, for example), there will probably be another excess bid after this one to get the excess over to the MD11 or 727. Again, could push 727 FOs down.

- It depends on the popularity of the 727 FO seat. If folks want to be elsewhere all will be good. Cassel appears to want to plus up the widebody seats and reduce the 727. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink....

Chuck Norris can. Page 4. :D

...Damn, and I always thought I was Hans Solo. :mad::D

Oh well. :)

No real predictions here, but last bid (cancelled) I moved from about 110 on the list down to 75 in the 727 FO seat...meaning about 35 folks senior to me voluntarily were upgrading. Some of those guys still snuck in under the training cutoff when the last bid was cancelled, so let's guess there are 30 out of the top 100 who wanted to move last time. If that holds true again....I gotta believe there are at least 20 guys between 100-286 that will go ahead and make the move. I don't see nobody losing a window seat in the 727. Again--that's just an educated guess based on what I saw in the last bid.

I will likely bid to excess, which means I'll either move up to a WB, OR sit at about 50 on the FO list. The wrinkle is there are some serious seat campers who enjoy the QOL, and it is hard to imagine a job that requires less pre-flight duty or prep than a 3 seat jet FO. Maybe, just maybe, enough folks will decide they want to continue to wear Bose headsets and ride out the storm on a jet with a shrinking bid pack--especially if the rumors of the South America flying come to fruition. However, I cannot believe there aren't fifty folks ready to do something else. I also can't believe someone who was familiar with the DC-10 jet and could hold an MD11 in MEM in ANC or an A300 in MEM would take a pay cut to go through boeing school (again?). So--I doubt there will be anyone piling in on top of the 727 FO seat pushing folks out the bottom.

Standard disclaimer--been wrong before and will be again....practice bid should give us a few hints on Wednesday.

Thanks, Albie.

Always good info.


But you need to sell the 727 better to get to the Bus;)

I forgot. Which means Albie can too!

Top 50 on the 727 is just fine with me too. I'll miss the Valsans, but there should be enough flying left over to find something to make me happy if I stay on the Boeing. For guys who did not upgrade at 100%, excess bids are a chance for a "do over". The guys who suffer the most are the ones who are just hanging on at the bottom of a list somewhere.

There are some DC10 FOs who could hold 727 captain. It will be interesting to see what happens there....

Quote the odds of surviving a frontal assault on an Empire Star Destroyer Han Solo could not... C3PO on the other three fingered hand...


Know we all that too cool for USAFA, Han Solo is. ;)

Master Yoda
Fed-i Sleepless kNight

I'm a former DC-10 F/O barely holding on to the bottom of the 727 Capt seat. I knew there was a risk of excess in the future. Just didn't think it would have come so soon! :confused:

Difficult to see... Always in motion is the future. Wait and see we must.... Perhaps enough Boeing Captains will relieve excess for you to keep your seat... Perhaps....

Painful you think AGE 65 was? Imagine AGE 905!!!

Yoda

Personal this information is...

Told to me by a MEC member that ALL of the SOs who were coming back to the front have on 8-01. Before ask you, Darth Wader (DW) it was not...

Still, believe this I do not...

Master Yoda

"Painful you think AGE 65 was? Imagine AGE 905!!!"

Master Fred-i...If wire rimmed glasses you wore, and paler you were, a Hunter of Foxes you would resemble! The force in that one, as we speak, draining it is, with every flick of the pump called "B". Deer Vader, his nemisis, or savior was. 905, his new goal is.

Sorry but that weak attempt at Yoda speak was all I could do.

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Post of the week....

64YOA's to 72 S/O
 

We looked at this the other day. The consensus was about a dozen 10 S/O's who would be ~64 next Feb would go to the 72. Now there may be some "younger" 10 S/Os who can't go to a window seat due to medical issues, etc. Those could also go to the 72 S/O seat. There are too many factors to make more than a WAG. YMMV.

Thanks for the information DLax. Interesting way of looking at it.

One question. Anyone have a prediction on what the training dates might look like in general? The last thing I'm going to consider is a "bid to relieve excess" if it is going to cost me 2 summer vacation slots that my seniority afforded me this year.

Member of the 'Part of the Problem Club'

I think all you can be assured of is that there is no possible way to know when you are going to train until the training letter is released. It will depend on who goes where and what seat they will be vacating. If you want the seat, bid it, but short of getting a training date swap it will be a roll of the dice in my opinion.

I "thought" that ALL pilots over age 60 had ti have a class one medical. So ... what sort of "medical issue" would prevent you from going to the front seat but still allow you to hold a Class I? :confused:

Good point, the new law does require all "pilots" over age 60 to hold a Class 1 and renew it on a six month basis. That begs the question if this new requirement trumps the regulation that an FE to just hold a Class 2 ?

Good point. Not enough incentive to move anywhere at this point.

Staying put.

Would seem to me as an S/O they are not exercising the rights of their "pilots" cert but of their "engineer" cert. Only a second class required.

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Sent you a PM.

Please check your PMs. Thanks!