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UPS makes informal $15 billion bid for TNT

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UPS makes informal $15 billion bid for TNT

Old 08-12-2008, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by 767pilot View Post
We don't have much of either. The 767 guys fly across ourselves and then do the intra work with no tickets and no reserves other than Star and MNG who are there anyway.

Putting a domicile in Germany just isn't that easy, talk to any of our guys that live there. Anyone ready to take the German language competency test required if you want to live there for more than a few month?
What about the 747-400 & MD11 folks? What about the length of crew rest after a crossing? Do all of our pond crossing trips start and stop in domicile? I can see where it might be much more cost efficient to have a domicile than send guys across to do work.

If you were to put a domicile in a European country they might be happy as it would mean more jobs in their country (what all politicians want). That would work out to probable savings in other areas for company (tax incentives, building leases, landing fees, etc.).

Once again this is all speculation on my part and in no way infers anything approaching reality or to any one living or dead.
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Old 08-12-2008, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE View Post
They are all on long term visas and German is not required of them (even though some are taking classes right now for their own benefit).

Long term visa is probably what we'd get if a domicile ever opened there.
I think this is the main difference. They have work permits sponsored by their employer. Whereas someone getting a permanent residency card on their own is a whole different kettle of fish. Similar to high tech companies here getting the special worker permit for foreign IT people vs. getting a green card on your own. I'm sure they have some form of way of getting a work permit long term visa contingent on your continued employment with your sponsoring company (UPS).
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ERJ Jay View Post
I think this is the main difference. They have work permits sponsored by their employer. Whereas someone getting a permanent residency card on their own is a whole different kettle of fish. Similar to high tech companies here getting the special worker permit for foreign IT people vs. getting a green card on your own. I'm sure they have some form of way of getting a work permit long term visa contingent on your continued employment with your sponsoring company (UPS).
That's exactly right.
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by 767pilot View Post
... As for the language test, I see a certain irony between pilots that wouldn't want to take such a test and still be able to live and work there and the same guys who may wish to deny spanish only speakers the same privelage here .
Earlier I missed this part of your reply; I think there's a big difference here. The German language test requirement is to make sure the potentially new German citizens will assimilate into the society and will be able to take the full advantage of all the opportunities in their new home country (aka the German government wants them to get real jobs so they don't have to support them financially in all eternity.)

The ACLU driven ‘press 1 for English and 2 for Spanish’ is something totally opposite. It's a way to divide our country into two separate enclaves which reminds me of Quebec and other linguistically divided nations.

I do agree that there should be other language alternatives for those who maybe do not speak English well enough but it should be done in a different way than it is now. For example when you pay for something at Wal-Mart you should never have to chose 'English' on the credit card machine - that should be automatic.

Now if you do wish to use another language there should be several other options on the machine: Spanish, German, French, Mandarin, etc, etc. They should be able to press on a tiny Spanish flag for Spanish, or a German flag for German, etc, etc.
We should never have to select English first – ‘press 1 for English’ rules create rasism not prevent it.


We should turn Spanish into what it is - a ‘tourist language,’ maybe even an illegal tourist language – but one of many ‘tourist’ languages - a national language it should never become yet the press 1 for English rules legitimize Spanish as a semi official national language. That’d threaten to Balkanize the country where some part of the country would speak only Spanish while others use English - eventually it'd lead to secessionist moves and future referendums to leave the union (I'm talking 25-50 years down the road) – just like in Canada.

As someone born and raised in Europe I hope that one day we’ll have an amendment to our constitution and make English the official language of the US. Sometimes it may be heavily accented or maybe even grammatically incorrect however the English language IS the glue holding our melting pot together.

Last edited by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE; 08-12-2008 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE View Post
.....I hope that one day we’ll have an amendment to our constitution and make English the official language of the US.
What will become of the deep South ?



Different dialect ...

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Old 08-12-2008, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by CactusCrew View Post
What will become of the deep South ?



Different dialect ...
Very simple - make Yankees study up on their Engleesh...
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:16 PM
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Interesting take on potential UPS/TNT or FedEx/TNT deal...

TNT takeover talk: real deal or boy who cried wolf? | Reuters

TNT takeover talk: real deal or boy who cried wolf?
Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:50pm EDT

CHICAGO (Reuters) - In the world of package companies, there is one story you can rely on to come up with mind-numbing regularity: speculation that either United Parcel Service Inc or FedEx Corp are in talks to buy TNT.

The latest speculation that UPS is in talks to buy TNT for 10 billion euros (15.2 billion) sent the Dutch mail company's stock up more than 5 percent. A mid-July rumor that FedEx was doing the same sent TNT stock up nearly 30 percent in a single day. Ten days later, TNT's stock fell 18 percent on a report that talks had ended.

While this talk almost invariably comes to naught - and both companies have consistently refused to comment on the recurrent rumors - some day TNT would make a good fit for UPS and an even better one for FedEx. TNT's stock rises on rumors of an imminent bid because a deal is seen as a good long-term strategy for either company.

"The rumors come up every couple of months, and every time nothing happens," said Jason Seidl, an analyst at investment bank Dahlman Rose. "The problem is that a deal makes sense, FedEx needs TNT, and UPS could use it, so that's why TNT's shares react."

"Eventually, I am convinced there will be a deal, but in the meantime it's like the little boy who cried wolf," he said.

Most analysts greeted the latest episode in what Seidl termed the "TNT saga" with more than a dash of skepticism. They rolled out reasons why the Dutch company would be a good buy but also stressed that any announcement of a deal by UPS or FedEx would result in a bidding war.

"Recently, there has been increased press speculation about first FedEx and now UPS purchasing all of TNT or its Express division," Edward Wolfe of Wolfe Research wrote in a note for clients. "We ... believe at this point there remains little evidence of such a deal occurring."

Even if a deal is not in the works, stock moves on the back of rumors are suspicious, some analysts said.

"It is a little suspect that we get these persistent rumors from unknown sources that have such an impact" on TNT's stock, said Dahlman Rose's Seidl.

EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL

To understand the attraction of TNT to UPS or FedEx, one should look at its market share in Europe.

Some analysts put the Dutch mail company's share at around 9 percent. Deutsche Post express delivery unit DHL has 15 percent market share, while the world's largest delivery company UPS has 6 percent and FedEx has 2 percent.

As a relatively small fish in the European pond compared to its competitors, Memphis-based FedEx is seen by analysts as having the most to gain from buying TNT because that would make it the No. 2 operator on the continent.

"Speculation of a TNT takeout has persisted for years, so we hesitate to draw any conclusions," R.W. Baird & Co analyst Jon Langenfeld wrote in a note for clients. "However, we believe the deal would be strategically positive for either FedEx or UPS."

"We believe FedEx needs TNT more than UPS, but UPS could afford to pay more," he wrote.

"The deal would be more strategically significant and more important for FedEx growth given its limited intra-European platform. However, the earnings synergy opportunities would be greater for UPS given its existing intra-European footprint," Baird's Langenfeld wrote.

"Either way, the deal would likely be a positive for the industry, representing yet another layer of consolidation going from four to three global integrators," according to Langenfeld.

For some time, the prevailing theory among analysts has been that the worst case scenario for UPS or FedEx would be if one or the other got control of TNT and dramatically grew its European market share.

That would raise the possibility of bids and counter bids that would not be good for UPS and FedEx, but would be a bonanza for TNT shareholders.

"If either UPS or FedEx were to announce a deal to buy TNT (or TNT Express), we believe it would cause near-term pressure on both UPS and FedEx stocks due to concern about a potential bidding war and resulting high price for TNT," JP Morgan analyst Thomas Wadewitz wrote in a research note.

All of the leading package delivery companies have been hurt by slowing global economic growth and high fuel costs, and customers switching to slower package services from higher cost express ones.

JP Morgan's Wadewitz noted that "cyclical pressures on TNT may provide a catalyst for TNT to consider a deal."

Whether or not a deal is in the offing, analysts said more speculation about one can be expected.

"Every few months we wake up to a new rumor and that is unlikely to change moving forward," Dahlman Rose's Seidl said. "What is worrisome is that we don't know where these rumors are coming from and who stands to benefit from them."

"At the same time I am concerned that if investors hear this often enough, eventually they'll say, 'Oh, that again' and miss the real deal when it comes," he added.
(Editing by Toni Reinhold)
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Precontact View Post
...ome analysts put the Dutch mail company's share at around 9 percent. Deutsche Post express delivery unit DHL has 15 percent market share, while the world's largest delivery company UPS has 6 percent and FedEx has 2 percent...
Is that info correct? I thought Fedex was much bigger in Europe than UPS?
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Old 08-13-2008, 05:44 AM
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No, we're bigger...at least for now.
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Old 08-13-2008, 06:14 AM
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TNT....its DYNOMITE!!!!!!!!!!!
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