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Why a furlough WILL NOT happen at UPS

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Why a furlough WILL NOT happen at UPS

Old 11-09-2008, 08:15 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by LeftWing View Post
Hasn't UPS been getting rid of the DC-8's for what, 16 years?



oh, and another chime in on your 8's being ugly. As opposed to what, the blad 767 or Airbus? It's a beautiful airplane...especially compared to the soulless airplanes they're making these days!
Agreed, when they park the last Airbus in the plastic graveyard, they will send a DC-8 to pick up the crew. DC-8's are like Harley's, not the latest and greatest but they've got the most soul.
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Old 11-09-2008, 08:21 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by L'il J.Seinfeld View Post
I just read the complete "right sizing" thread and the entire "UPS furlough facts" thread and have some thoughts. My opinion is not worth more than others, but I feel like the naysayers are paranoid and are not basing their fears on facts, namely Biggs and Frontseat.

First off, UPS is still making nearly 4 billion a year in profits. Yes profits were down 9%, but we still made nearly a billion last quarter. The economists are predicting a recession, but most don't think it will last more than a few more quarters. Continued profits don't guarentee there will not be furloughs, but it shows we are still part of a team that's making a lot of money in a bad economy. When there is a recovery business will boom for UPS and we need to keep our pilots trained and ready to expand. UPS can lay off drivers and bring them back quickly and cheaply, but obviously pilots are different.

If the DHL deal gets announced, even if it is less than originally planned, that's a strong sign that our jobs are safe and that there may be some hiring in the Spring.

If the DHL deal falls through and IF UPS decides to cut back it will be with the DC-8 fleet. The 8's are old, ugly, and inefficient just like the 75 or so PFEs or over age 65 FEs that operate them and the classic 747. By eliminating that fleet you eliminate 75 off the seniority list that can't train in the front seat. That leaves around 275 pilots from the 8 to be absorbed. I think 200 would be the max number that we could conceivably furlough, but that amount would have to be spread out over the drawdown of the DC-8. I don't think we could make service with a drastic and speedy grounding of the DC-8 fleet. Assuming UPS agrees and they decide to phase out the 8s over 18 months or so that would coincide with the 125 or so retirements of current front seaters with birthdays in 1944-47. There will be a lot of seats opening on the -400 just based on retirement numbers and a few more out of sympathy if a furlough is announced. Factor in a few dozen mil leave folks and the furlough number drops to 100 or so. The open time ban in our contract in the event of a furlough will protect 100 jobs!!

The junior guys in ANC, whom I think are the ones fearing the furlough the most, see a very different company than those junior folks based in the lower 48. I look at the senior capts on the -400 and see many names that were FEs on the 727 and 747. Many are great guys and I enjoyed flying with them. But some are scum of the Earth dudes that were aviation rejects in the 80's and lucked their way into one of the best jobs in aviation. The fact that I lucked my way into this job is beside the point. I'm sorry that someone has to listen to them talk about their money and toys between ANC and HKG. I feel very confident that enough of us in the IPA would honor an open time ban in the event of a furlough that it would not be worth it for UPS.

So if you've read this far and disagree with my analysis tell me how I am wrong. I am junior and a little nervous about all the furlough talk too. But it just does not make business sense for UPS to furlough.

Lil Jerry Seinfeld, MBA, Junior Dude
UPS will staff based on the the needs of the system not based on last quarters profit. If we see a reduction in volume they will move to consolidate flights/cities.nxtday and 2 day.
They won't keep anymore pilots on the property than they need.
If you rationalize beyond this or try and apply PAX carrier thinking to UPS your analysis will miss.
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Old 11-09-2008, 08:48 AM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by L'il J.Seinfeld View Post
Biggs,

I just looked at the seniority list again. There are a heckuva lot more than 58 retirements in the next 3 years.

L'il J.
Biggs does not read anything! You should know better. One big run on sentence.

Biggs he is right. You may want to look at the list. If you have a birthday after 1947 (that would make you 65 in 3 years 2009+3=2012 1947+65=2012) It equates to more than 170 mandatory (dont go there) retirements.

Of those on the list how many will stick around after 60? How many can? Also we start the contract stuff soon (I know its not till 2012). Lots of guys will retire under the old contract as opposed to being forced to work till 65. If this happens it could create a big bath tub effect in 3 years.

I dont agree with L'il J on the description of some of the guys still working. If you have to work, you have to work Some advice though. If you are over 60 (or close) and are still putting money into stocks....stop investing money yourself or get a new financial advisor. I flew with one such chap to HKG the other day and all he talked about was how he "had" to work as long as possible. Said his 401k had taken huge hits in the market. He is 63. If you are that old....nevermind
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Old 11-09-2008, 08:55 AM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by 757upspilot View Post
UPS will staff based on the the needs of the system not based on last quarters profit. If we see a reduction in volume they will move to consolidate flights/cities.nxtday and 2 day.
They won't keep anymore pilots on the property than they need.
If you rationalize beyond this or try and apply PAX carrier thinking to UPS your analysis will miss.
Manager in training?
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Old 11-09-2008, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by JustUnderPar View Post
Manager in training?
Not hardly but, I have been on the property long enough to have some understanding of the way they work.
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Old 11-09-2008, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by 757upspilot View Post
Not hardly but, I have been on the property long enough to have some understanding of the way they work.
Just a jab

You know pilots can fit round things in square things right

If they cannot they will find a way
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Old 11-09-2008, 10:56 AM
  #17  
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I'm sitting in Eagle River at Sleepy Dog drinking coffee while I should be enroute to Shanghai. Canceled due to lack of volume....
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Old 11-09-2008, 11:33 AM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by FrontSeat View Post
How many times have you and your friends been called and told to stay home due to lack of volume?

its happening in the pacific........
Yes the sky is falling. Everyone is going to be out of work. The auto companies, airlines, freight businesses will fail everywhere. Banks will all fail. Government will step in. This will cause inflation to go through the roof. Money will be worthless. There will be riots in every city. People fighting over food and gas. Anarchy will rule.

Oh wait

Crazy Isn't it?
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Old 11-09-2008, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by JustUnderPar View Post
Yes the sky is falling. Everyone is going to be out of work. The auto companies, airlines, freight businesses will fail everywhere. Banks will all fail. Government will step in. This will cause inflation to go through the roof. Money will be worthless. There will be riots in every city. People fighting over food and gas. Anarchy will rule.

Oh wait

Crazy Isn't it?

I was in Looneyville (SDF) the night of Obama's election and a whole bunch of our pilots were huddled around the tv with FauX news on and they thought the world was ending!

If you add that we are now socialists to your list this is exactly what they were saying. I think most of them were heading to their bomb shelters getting their guns ready before Obama's storm troopers come to take them away!

Now that is crazy!
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Old 11-09-2008, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Waborita View Post
I was in Looneyville (SDF) the night of Obama's election and a whole bunch of our pilots were huddled around the tv with FauX news on and they thought the world was ending!

If you add that we are now socialists to your list this is exactly what they were saying. I think most of them were heading to their bomb shelters getting their guns ready before Obama's storm troopers come to take them away!

Now that is crazy!
That is pretty !@#$ funny. Wish I could have seen it.
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