steel

I believe an excess is imminent from ANC soon based on the March schedules. We have a lot of front end/back end deadheads to MEM/IND/et cetera. A lot of guys, who don’t want to commute to ANC, will bid the airplane. Scheduling keeps the cost down by deterring pilots from uprooting their families from the lower 48, “allowing” them to simply pick up the trip close to home, which inevitably keeps the move packages to a minimum. Of course, I believe they are banking on the fact that pilots won’t use their DH money. All the while they keep the pilot numbers per base at desired levels for the rebound. The only downfall is when they change the schedules back to the norm swiping the carrot from midair.
Is this plausible?

av8rmike

I don't think so and here's why:

Excess costs lots of money, furlough is initially cheaper. To make your hypothesis work, the reason to excess would be to align the seats for a furlough.

Assume the Big Brains on here are correct and we have a 'bounce back' to 68 hrs/month once the first furlough happens. Now, look at the numbers. How much do you save if you have to pay higher BLGs for the 4400 or so left after a furlough vs just continuing squeezing blood from our BLG stone. Run the numbers yourself. I don't see how it would make any financial sense to furlough and lose the ability to lower the BLGs.

Just my 2 cents...

DLax85

FDX, Is an ANC excess imminent?

Imminent? I think not.

A possibility sometime in the future if the economy significantly worsens? Yes.

We're overmanned in the Bus in Memphis --- and management doesn't want to carry anymore than they have to in wide-body seats.

Would all excessed off the Bus in Memphis run up to Anchorage? I think not.

777 is now a MEM-based/no commute option (mainly for the excessed FOs) that didn't exist last year. It has equal, and perhaps more, pay and a long stretched out 18-month training letter to work thru first (....unless they excess in the 777, and redo the letter)

Plus, there are some that may agree to go to the 757 for less pay, but no commute, and a bit of seniority (at least in the right seat)

That's where the company will need more pilots very soon --- this fall.

With 4.A.2.B doing the bulk of the dirty work already, no "imminent need" to post a Big 08-03 style excess bid, when a smaller excess bid may work just fine.

...and remember, if they don't like the results they can just cancel it and start over.

Follow-up Question: If/when an excess bid comes out, will it also include HKG vacancies?

Discuss.

GreaseA6

Based on info out here, an excess is imminent and will not include any HKG positions. Don't have any idea where from or how many. End of the month.

FR8Hauler

So if everybody bids HKG that gets excess ed out of the other bases what do they do then? If I am excess ed out of ANC and want to go to HKG, I go or get passover pay for it. Same problem they had before. It will cost a fortune for the company and maybe a good deal for some of us...

jagplt

Unless they figure out a way to send your monkey a$$ out there!

BadGolfer

125 excess from Left and Right Seat of Bus.

Very few in MD

FLMD11CAPT

And your source is.......????????

GreaseA6

The ACP thinks they are going to increase the number of Capts here, that would take care of guys bidding just for passover, unless you're a river boat gambler. FO slots being 50% undermanned passover is not an issue. They are paying three guys to do the job of one plus about 30K in DH costs for them.

jagplt

I think the stratigery was to bid the left seat to protect wide body Capt pay... as for F/O's, they just may send you there if the (very) junior F/O's are flushed with the F word.

or did I miss something here.