penguin22

Don't get caught up in the minutia of your decision... commute, reserve, etc... Those details tend to shift around over the years. This is a Big Picture decision.

My advice? Go with the legacy.

I'd even pass up FDX/UPS and go with a legacy, but that would be more of a personal decision; they're certainly better career choices than ABX.

nitefr8dog

And be prepared for a furlough or 2 at some point in your career. Behind 10K-12K pilots with the economy swings we are now living with it WILL happen. Also unless you are 23 years old be realistic that you will most likely never upgrade. IMHO

crewdawg

Is it not a good idea to think about this stuff prior to hiring happening? Maybe it's just me but I would rather have thought these things through when hiring happens, so I'm ready to go when hiring does happen.

Maybe he lives north of CVG.

Dude, I have been hearing that the CLE base will close any day now for the last 10-12 years. Sure, it may be more likely to happen since the merger, but it's been a rumor forever.

Gunter

You need to form your view of the economy, industry, individual airlines and projected retirements before you can make sense of this.

Some people stay at a carrier until it all goes to shiite then they move on. Doing so usually forces one to pass on hiring at a better place when hiring is in full swing. Or when there is hiring at all. Incidentally it's easier to get hired at the top tier companies when hiring is robust. If you wait until the economy and your company tanks to look for a job you usually end up someplace other than your first, second or even third choice. Sometimes a failing carrier comes out of the spin and starts climbing again (UAL/CAL, IF you are senior to the bottom 1400). Sometimes they come out of the spin only to reenter again a short while later (American, again if you are senior enough). One is hoping they are coming out of it but my guess is the hiring picture will be bleak there as they spin off any overlapping routes.

If you don't mind risking being on the street at the beginning of a downturn, stay where you are.

But now is a great time to be at UAL or Delta, if you have reached a certain seniority level. We used to think we knew where that level was, 85-90%, then the paradigm changed. I think you have a sense that "rules" and "good companies" change. Being a newhire is always a risk and this time is no exception. But taking advantage of a wave is ALWAYS good. There is a wave of retirements that has just started.

You discuss advancement, time off and a desire to avoid a 4 hr drive. Seems very important to you. If those reasons are as important to you as it appears stay where you are. Any move will be a big hit in the pocketbook and a commitment of time you would otherwise have off at ABX....

But you are still a little concerned about the longevity of ABX. I don't know ABX's business model very well but it seems to be a fragile thing. That is an important consideration if you have a family.

You risk a devastating financial loss staying at a company with an uncertain future, IMHO. If I were you I would apply to majors that look like they have a future with retirements looming. But I'm not you and life is short. These may be the best years of your life, maybe you should enjoy them now.

Start studying up!!!

BTW, I've seen people move when they shouldn't have and not move when it was time. I have also seen people make some shrewd moves that they were derided for. The reasons were solid but were teased by many because THEY didn't have the stones to do so the same or were just too in shock to analyze the available data.

But I have also seen the unexpected happen like a furlough at UPS. That was a real shock. There are pilots that left UAL for UPS only to be furloughed, again. I personally wouldn't put UPS on your list unless it looked like ABX was going under.

Whistlin' Dan

In the world of ACMI cargo, 7 years is forever. One of the problems is that your fortunes aren't really tied to a product, they're tied to a customer...a customer who is constantly on the lookout for someone to do your job cheaper. Even if you're represented by a union, you'll have a hard time getting (or enforcing) scope. And without that, you really don't have any assurance that your success will be inextricably tied to that of your company or your customer. "You'll always be a girlfriend, never a wife."

The last 20 years have been a great time to be in the air freight/express mail business. But that market is shrinking, leaving the likelihood that the next 20 will be quite different. Given the opportunity, I wouldn't pass up a chance to go with a legacy.

rollndadice

Adding my two cents here...

Don't forget the extremely toxic union vs mgmt thing at ABX...that alone could make you want to move.

Unless your seniority is much higher than mine (2000 hire date) i would be shocked to see an upgrade any time before 10-12 years, if the whole thing lasts that long. Many, many people in the 45-55 yr range and very few retirements.

I would leave ABX for any of the legacies, especially Delta, and get hired ASAP in the front edge of a purported huge hiring wave coming.

Or, get out of aviation all together, like I am...

satpak77

Roll - what field you going into ?

rollndadice

Gynecology...

No, Sales and Marketing.

rollndadice

I am so worried that ABX will not be around or that I will be back on the street again at some point, and with what, more time in a logbook? Start over as a new hire for peanuts, all that bs, and that much older?

At least with some business experience, you can translate that experience into another job. I'm too old to start at the bottom again and ride the ups and own of this industry.

This industry is just a shade of what it was when I started this trip, 20 years ago. It will never regain the earning potential or respect that the profession enjoyed.

Vito

Undaunted,
If UPS starts hiring in the near future is that an option you would be willing to consider. If you live in the western suburbs of Cincy or Eastern KY you could be within driving distance to SDF and still be close to CVG.