Will Boeing 747 Outlive Airbus A380?
10-28-2016, 10:56 AM
#1
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Will Boeing 747 Outlive Airbus A380?
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Before yesterday, the answer was clear. The real A380 order book (minus the ample number of zombie orders) was in bad shape, but the 747′s was worse. Nominally, it was a mere 15 planes (plus two unstated orders for the Air Force’s Air Force One presidential transport program), but in reality six were zombie orders (for Transaero and Arik Air).
That left just 11 planes, with production reduced in September to one every other month. In July, Boeing said in a regulatory filing, “It is reasonably possible that we could decide to end production of the 747.” But the UPS order will likely boost output, perhaps back to the one per month level.
...
UPS’ order is therefore intriguing. While the air cargo market has been in the doldrums for years, it still offers long-term growth. And as a cargo plane the 747-8F is unmatched in terms of range and payload. There are no new large cargo plane designs on the horizon, and used passenger 747s are aging and might not make for a cost-effective cargo conversion. Military planes are not adaptable for civil cargo use except for a few niche roles.
...
Right now, Teal Group’s forecast calls for the last A380 and the last 747 to be delivered the same year: 2019. But yesterday’s surprise UPS announcement implies that there may be more upside with the 747...
Forbes Welcome
Before yesterday, the answer was clear. The real A380 order book (minus the ample number of zombie orders) was in bad shape, but the 747′s was worse. Nominally, it was a mere 15 planes (plus two unstated orders for the Air Force’s Air Force One presidential transport program), but in reality six were zombie orders (for Transaero and Arik Air).
That left just 11 planes, with production reduced in September to one every other month. In July, Boeing said in a regulatory filing, “It is reasonably possible that we could decide to end production of the 747.” But the UPS order will likely boost output, perhaps back to the one per month level.
...
UPS’ order is therefore intriguing. While the air cargo market has been in the doldrums for years, it still offers long-term growth. And as a cargo plane the 747-8F is unmatched in terms of range and payload. There are no new large cargo plane designs on the horizon, and used passenger 747s are aging and might not make for a cost-effective cargo conversion. Military planes are not adaptable for civil cargo use except for a few niche roles.
...
Right now, Teal Group’s forecast calls for the last A380 and the last 747 to be delivered the same year: 2019. But yesterday’s surprise UPS announcement implies that there may be more upside with the 747...
Forbes Welcome
10-28-2016, 12:57 PM
#2
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 638
I think Boeing can count on more than a few 747-8F orders beyond UPS. Only problem is cargo companies are just now seeing their 400s age out along with MD-11s. The 777F will have a sizable market but you also had to get in line with all the pax carriers for production slots for an airplane that's not nearly as capable as the 8F.
The nice thing is the 747 had been bought and paid for decades ago so Boeing can afford to just let the production run at a crawl where the A380 is a money pit like no other. While airbus will do anything it takes to not face the write down they'd incur if they shut it down there's only so much you can do. Also relying on the Middle East carriers right now to carry the A380 through this is probably not the best idea.
The nice thing is the 747 had been bought and paid for decades ago so Boeing can afford to just let the production run at a crawl where the A380 is a money pit like no other. While airbus will do anything it takes to not face the write down they'd incur if they shut it down there's only so much you can do. Also relying on the Middle East carriers right now to carry the A380 through this is probably not the best idea.
10-30-2016, 04:34 PM
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There are some grown men out there who are successful at their careers that still look up like 8 year olds and hope (cough cough) their company orders a few 8s as well, and that they might one day be lucky enough to fly them....
10-31-2016, 06:36 AM
#9
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Posts: 705
Originally Posted by Active Shooter
4 motors beats 2 for airline pilot street cred.
It's a no brainer. Remember, one has to fly this thing for years, not a couple months.
10-31-2016, 07:27 AM
#10
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