Corporate to 121
04-29-2018, 01:32 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,177
Originally Posted by rickair7777
This is true, the rising tide will lift all boats (as long as you can find FO's to swing your gear).
But the rising tide will recede eventually... deep in a legacy seniority list might be a more stable fortress in which to ride it out when the time comes. That's one of several things which make airlines attractive at this moment... rapid seniority progression.
But the rising tide will recede eventually... deep in a legacy seniority list might be a more stable fortress in which to ride it out when the time comes. That's one of several things which make airlines attractive at this moment... rapid seniority progression.
GF
04-30-2018, 06:42 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,205
Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
Careful. After 9/11 USAir initially furloughed 1149 Pilots - almost 20% of the seniority list. But by the time the music stopped every pilot who remained on property had been a Captain prior to 9/11.
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The looming retirement bubble is creating crazy numbers. Assuming AA has a 15% furlough tomorrow, and stays 15% smaller, the junior pilot hired last month will be furloughed approx. 4 years and will have the ability to upgrade 3 years after getting recalled or 7 yrs after getting hired.
Guys can come up with their own furlough percentage, and resulting numbers, at their airline and see what the furlough risk, and duration, is based on their assumptions.
04-30-2018, 09:26 AM
#13
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,796
Ok. United furloughed twice since 9/11. American only recently recouped all of its furloughed pilots post 9/11...
I’m just saying that the gods of aviation misfortune tend to punish the overconfident.
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I’m just saying that the gods of aviation misfortune tend to punish the overconfident.
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04-30-2018, 10:04 AM
#14
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Position: 6th place
Posts: 1,826
Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
Ok. United furloughed twice since 9/11. American only recently recouped all of its furloughed pilots post 9/11...
I’m just saying that the gods of aviation misfortune tend to punish the overconfident.
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I’m just saying that the gods of aviation misfortune tend to punish the overconfident.
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All the furloughed AA guys could have come back by 2012ish at the latest.
04-30-2018, 11:39 AM
#16
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Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,177
Originally Posted by mainlineAF
All the furloughed AA guys could have come back by 2012ish at the latest.
GF
04-30-2018, 02:53 PM
#19
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Position: 6th place
Posts: 1,826
Corporate to 121
Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
So the 11 year furlough somehow proves your point?
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Just stating how they had the option to come back by 2013. Calm down
Last edited by mainlineAF; 04-30-2018 at 03:08 PM.
05-01-2018, 04:43 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,205
Run the same furlough percentages that occurred with 9/11, and lack of growth and the airline staying at the same size, and the new hire hired last month, who’d be the last guy recalled, would be recalled in under 5 yrs and upgrade about three years later.
Is any of this guaranteed? No, but any furlough of today would probably be vastly different than it was 15-17 yrs due to the different retirement numbers.
That’s the assessment guys need to figure out for themselves.
Is any of this guaranteed? No, but any furlough of today would probably be vastly different than it was 15-17 yrs due to the different retirement numbers.
That’s the assessment guys need to figure out for themselves.
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