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Old 03-30-2020, 12:16 PM   #131  
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New York State published numbers as of 2 pm on Monday:

Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)

New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)

Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)

New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)

Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
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Old 03-30-2020, 01:20 PM   #132  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post
New York State published numbers as of 2 pm on Monday:

Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)

New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)

Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)

New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)

Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.


lets hope it keeps decreasing
good sign
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Old 03-30-2020, 02:56 PM   #133  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post
New York State published numbers as of 2 pm on Monday:

Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)

New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)

Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)

New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)

Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
I'm genuinely happy not all of the ventilators are in use, but as my wife just reminded me when I read this to her, ventilator usage does not reflect ER/medical-surgical/ICU bed capacity or usage in NYC hospitals. The Comfort just arrived and they are building a temporary hospital in Central Park. They aren't doing this simply to prepare; the ER's and ICU's in the five boroughs are already overwhelmed. I'm all for being positive but let's not p**syfoot about what is happening there right now.
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:23 AM   #134  
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Fresh study on fatality:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:41 AM   #135  
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For mainland China, the researchers are using the official number of mortalities reported by Chinese officials. The true number of fatalities could be much higher based on some reports (30k to 40k)
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:52 AM   #136  
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Originally Posted by GoneMissed View Post
For mainland China, the researchers are using the official number of mortalities reported by Chinese officials. The true number of fatalities could be much higher based on some reports (30k to 40k)
If you used the current reported 80,000 cases, that would mean a fatality rate of 37% to 50%.

I read, somewhere, they estimate the true number of cases to be 10x to 40x the number reported. If that is true, cases in China may be 800,000 to 3,200,000 cases. That might mean 4% to 1% facilities. This is closer to what is being seen in the rest of the world.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:00 PM   #137  
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For mainland China, the researchers are using the official number of mortalities reported by Chinese officials. The true number of fatalities could be much higher based on some reports (30k to 40k)
A few hours ago, POTUS went on national television and said that Americans should expect a "minimum" of 100,000 COVID-19 related deaths over the next few months; this is with strict social distancing. Worst case scenario could be exponentially worse. It was literally the most somber, low key/tone POTUS appearance I've ever seen.

I'm sure most of us will be fine. But when the President of the United States is saying this, don't be shocked if your average American has some reservations about hanging out in airports or flying over the next few months. Just sayin'...
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:30 AM   #138  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
If you used the current reported 80,000 cases, that would mean a fatality rate of 37% to 50%.

I read, somewhere, they estimate the true number of cases to be 10x to 40x the number reported. If that is true, cases in China may be 800,000 to 3,200,000 cases. That might mean 4% to 1% facilities. This is closer to what is being seen in the rest of the world.
Yesterday's Lancet estimated the COVID-19 iFR to be 0.66%.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext

The original estimates of COVID-19 fatality rate were on the magnitude of 5.7x higher than the most up-to-date estimate.

The iFR for those without chronic disease and those that are not yet senior citizens is no higher than for a typical flu (it's in a big fat chart in the middle of the study)

The real word has not seen 1-4% fatality rate. Widespread testing has not been done and will not be done for the foreseeable future.

There is some really good data in the above link. It was excellent research.

Also, China did not consider someone infected unless they tested positive AND had symptoms. So they missed at the very least half of the infections (and probably a lot more than half).

Last edited by AntiPeter; 04-01-2020 at 04:40 AM.
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:46 AM   #139  
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  • Is COVID-19 really that deadly??​​​​​​


Apparently, nah. The latest tally is potentially up to 240,000. They're interviewing docs all over the country and the ones in the hot spots are freaking out. Oh, and dying too. No big. It's just the flu.
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Old 04-01-2020, 09:51 AM   #140  
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Also, China did not consider someone infected unless they tested positive AND had symptoms. So they missed at the very least half of the infections (and probably a lot more than half).
China has been under reporting infections and deaths for some time, probably since this whole thing started. The reports in the British/world press that the US is the "epicenter" of COVID-19 shows their bias, given that it is tacitly acknowledged by so many journalists and governments that China, India, and Brazil are massive hot zones that have not been properly disclosing their statistics.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says

Think about how bad it is in the USA right now. 100,000 dead by June as a best case scenario, and that's with social distancing, and then look at Brazil, where the leader is still in denial and people are not changing their habits. Add their population density and healthcare system and then think about how bad it's going to get there. You don't have to be Frederick Zoller to realize a lot of Brazilians are going to die.
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