Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
03-30-2020, 12:16 PM
#131
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Position: Pilot
Posts: 511
New York State published numbers as of 2 pm on Monday:
Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)
New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)
Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)
New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)
Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)
New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)
Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)
New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)
Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
03-30-2020, 01:20 PM
#132
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Captain
Posts: 1,559
Originally Posted by AntiPeter
New York State published numbers as of 2 pm on Monday:
Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)
New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)
Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)
New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)
Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)
New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)
Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)
New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)
Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
lets hope it keeps decreasing
good sign
03-30-2020, 02:56 PM
#133
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: A shack in Kailua
Posts: 290
Originally Posted by AntiPeter
New York State published numbers as of 2 pm on Monday:
Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)
New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)
Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)
New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)
Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
Total Cases:
Sat (53,393)
Sun (60,679)
Mon (66,497)
New Cases:
Sat ( 7,131)
Sun (7,286)
Mon (5,818)
Total Deaths:
Sat (883)
Sun (1,063)
Mon (1,218)
New Deaths:
Sat (277)
Sun (180)
Mon (155)
Approximately 2,000 ventilators in use. 14,000 more ventilators are still available.
03-31-2020, 08:23 AM
#134
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2015
Posts: 32
03-31-2020, 08:41 AM
#135
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 66
Originally Posted by thomaskies
For mainland China, the researchers are using the official number of mortalities reported by Chinese officials. The true number of fatalities could be much higher based on some reports (30k to 40k)
03-31-2020, 08:52 AM
#136
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,929
Originally Posted by GoneMissed
For mainland China, the researchers are using the official number of mortalities reported by Chinese officials. The true number of fatalities could be much higher based on some reports (30k to 40k)
I read, somewhere, they estimate the true number of cases to be 10x to 40x the number reported. If that is true, cases in China may be 800,000 to 3,200,000 cases. That might mean 4% to 1% facilities. This is closer to what is being seen in the rest of the world.
03-31-2020, 05:00 PM
#137
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: A shack in Kailua
Posts: 290
Originally Posted by GoneMissed
For mainland China, the researchers are using the official number of mortalities reported by Chinese officials. The true number of fatalities could be much higher based on some reports (30k to 40k)
I'm sure most of us will be fine. But when the President of the United States is saying this, don't be shocked if your average American has some reservations about hanging out in airports or flying over the next few months. Just sayin'...
04-01-2020, 04:30 AM
#138
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Position: Pilot
Posts: 511
Originally Posted by TransWorld
If you used the current reported 80,000 cases, that would mean a fatality rate of 37% to 50%.
I read, somewhere, they estimate the true number of cases to be 10x to 40x the number reported. If that is true, cases in China may be 800,000 to 3,200,000 cases. That might mean 4% to 1% facilities. This is closer to what is being seen in the rest of the world.
I read, somewhere, they estimate the true number of cases to be 10x to 40x the number reported. If that is true, cases in China may be 800,000 to 3,200,000 cases. That might mean 4% to 1% facilities. This is closer to what is being seen in the rest of the world.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext
The original estimates of COVID-19 fatality rate were on the magnitude of 5.7x higher than the most up-to-date estimate.
The iFR for those without chronic disease and those that are not yet senior citizens is no higher than for a typical flu (it's in a big fat chart in the middle of the study)
The real word has not seen 1-4% fatality rate. Widespread testing has not been done and will not be done for the foreseeable future.
There is some really good data in the above link. It was excellent research.
Also, China did not consider someone infected unless they tested positive AND had symptoms. So they missed at the very least half of the infections (and probably a lot more than half).
Last edited by AntiPeter; 04-01-2020 at 04:40 AM.
04-01-2020, 06:46 AM
#139
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 142
- Is COVID-19 really that deadly??
Apparently, nah. The latest tally is potentially up to 240,000. They're interviewing docs all over the country and the ones in the hot spots are freaking out. Oh, and dying too. No big. It's just the flu.
04-01-2020, 09:51 AM
#140
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: A shack in Kailua
Posts: 290
Originally Posted by AntiPeter
Also, China did not consider someone infected unless they tested positive AND had symptoms. So they missed at the very least half of the infections (and probably a lot more than half).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says
Think about how bad it is in the USA right now. 100,000 dead by June as a best case scenario, and that's with social distancing, and then look at Brazil, where the leader is still in denial and people are not changing their habits. Add their population density and healthcare system and then think about how bad it's going to get there. You don't have to be Frederick Zoller to realize a lot of Brazilians are going to die.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
