Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
03-26-2020, 06:39 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by Sparta
The Diamond Princess and Grand Princess had over 800 positive Covid-19 cases with 10 deaths so far. This is a rate above 1%. The demographics are skewed older but also wealthier with access to good health care (and ventilators). Approximately 15% of the Covid-19 positives require hospitalization and 5% become critical. Most in critical condition will have long term complications if they survive. I will go out on a limb and say human life is more important than the economy or even my job.
I don't know the numbers on Grand Princess, but there were 3711 passengers and crew on Diamond Princess.
Last count I had, 6 people on Diamond Princess died, but I'll go with 10. Let's divide that number by only Diamond Princess pax and crew, ignoring the thousands aboard Grand Princess.
10/3711 = 0.27% mortality rate. Whatever your source of 1%, it's a made up statistic.
Let's then go with 800 (Diamond Princess cases were lower, with ~half of the positive being asymptomatic):
800/3711 = 21.6% of those exposed caught coronavirus.
No, the numbers indicate that coronavirus isn't much different statistically than the flu. The problem is that there is a wide range of patient reactions to coronavirus, from asymptomatic (for a large minority) all the way to death. However, there are a LOT of annual flu deaths so one has to assume that some become extremely ill when they contract the flu.
Like it or not, using the Diamond Princess as a 100% monitored control group, the death rate there was a bit less than 0.2% and an infection rate of less than 20%.
So, no, coronavirus isn't as bad as the media and a lot of 'experts' make it out to be. But sure, let's all go crazy in media-driven freakout where some become doomsday preppers, hoarding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, food, and a variety of other items which will take more than a year to consume.
03-26-2020, 07:47 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 149
Originally Posted by Andy
That's wrong. Whatever source you used, it is riddled with errors.
I don't know the numbers on Grand Princess, but there were 3711 passengers and crew on Diamond Princess.
Last count I had, 6 people on Diamond Princess died, but I'll go with 10. Let's divide that number by only Diamond Princess pax and crew, ignoring the thousands aboard Grand Princess.
10/3711 = 0.27% mortality rate. Whatever your source of 1%, it's a made up statistic.
Let's then go with 800 (Diamond Princess cases were lower, with ~half of the positive being asymptomatic):
800/3711 = 21.6% of those exposed caught coronavirus.
No, the numbers indicate that coronavirus isn't much different statistically than the flu. The problem is that there is a wide range of patient reactions to coronavirus, from asymptomatic (for a large minority) all the way to death. However, there are a LOT of annual flu deaths so one has to assume that some become extremely ill when they contract the flu.
Like it or not, using the Diamond Princess as a 100% monitored control group, the death rate there was a bit less than 0.2% and an infection rate of less than 20%.
So, no, coronavirus isn't as bad as the media and a lot of 'experts' make it out to be. But sure, let's all go crazy in media-driven freakout where some become doomsday preppers, hoarding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, food, and a variety of other items which will take more than a year to consume.
I don't know the numbers on Grand Princess, but there were 3711 passengers and crew on Diamond Princess.
Last count I had, 6 people on Diamond Princess died, but I'll go with 10. Let's divide that number by only Diamond Princess pax and crew, ignoring the thousands aboard Grand Princess.
10/3711 = 0.27% mortality rate. Whatever your source of 1%, it's a made up statistic.
Let's then go with 800 (Diamond Princess cases were lower, with ~half of the positive being asymptomatic):
800/3711 = 21.6% of those exposed caught coronavirus.
No, the numbers indicate that coronavirus isn't much different statistically than the flu. The problem is that there is a wide range of patient reactions to coronavirus, from asymptomatic (for a large minority) all the way to death. However, there are a LOT of annual flu deaths so one has to assume that some become extremely ill when they contract the flu.
Like it or not, using the Diamond Princess as a 100% monitored control group, the death rate there was a bit less than 0.2% and an infection rate of less than 20%.
So, no, coronavirus isn't as bad as the media and a lot of 'experts' make it out to be. But sure, let's all go crazy in media-driven freakout where some become doomsday preppers, hoarding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, food, and a variety of other items which will take more than a year to consume.
There were roughly 800 positives for Covid-19 between the two cruise ships (712 Diamond Princess and 60+ on the Grand Princess) as per the CDC. Ten of those have so far died. Many more will have complications (lung damage). Most of those on the ship did not catch COVID-19 so they should not be part of the mortality rate. With access to good healthcare roughly 1% of COVID-19 people die. With overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing that number rises to 3-4%. That is why there is an emphasis on flattening the curve. The flu mortality rate varies greatly by season but on average 0.1 % of people who catch the flu die. The CDC is estimating that the death rate from COVID-19 is around 1%. So if you catch COVID-19 it is ten times deadlier than the flu. That is with good hospital care. This is not fake news or media hype.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
03-26-2020, 08:46 AM
#33
Banned
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Tom’s Whipping boy.
Posts: 1,182
Originally Posted by Sparta
There were roughly 800 positives for Covid-19 between the two cruise ships (712 Diamond Princess and 60+ on the Grand Princess) as per the CDC. Ten of those have so far died. Many more will have complications (lung damage). Most of those on the ship did not catch COVID-19 so they should not be part of the mortality rate. With access to good healthcare roughly 1% of COVID-19 people die. With overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing that number rises to 3-4%. That is why there is an emphasis on flattening the curve. The flu mortality rate varies greatly by season but on average 0.1 % of people who catch the flu die. The CDC is estimating that the death rate from COVID-19 is around 1%. So if you catch COVID-19 it is ten times deadlier than the flu. That is with good hospital care. This is not fake news or media hype.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
I spent part of yesterday volunteering at our local hospital with an internal medicine doc friend. It’s actually his reassurance I passed along.
Did you find oximeter? We got ours at Amazon some months ago for a sick child
https://www.amazon.com/CHOICEMMED-Bl...s%2C185&sr=8-9
As for estate planning, what state are you in?
03-26-2020, 09:06 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 741
Originally Posted by BMEP100
So sorry to hear about your wife.As a medical pro she probably knows the numbers well and so should know her chances of becoming ill enough for hospitalization are pretty low, if she is otherwise healthy, physically and emotionally.
I spent part of yesterday volunteering at our local hospital with an internal medicine doc friend. It’s actually his reassurance I passed along.
Did you find oximeter? We got ours at Amazon some months ago for a sick child
https://www.amazon.com/CHOICEMMED-Bl...s%2C185&sr=8-9
As for estate planning, what state are you in?
I spent part of yesterday volunteering at our local hospital with an internal medicine doc friend. It’s actually his reassurance I passed along.
Did you find oximeter? We got ours at Amazon some months ago for a sick child
https://www.amazon.com/CHOICEMMED-Bl...s%2C185&sr=8-9
As for estate planning, what state are you in?
03-26-2020, 09:08 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 741
Originally Posted by Sparta
There were roughly 800 positives for Covid-19 between the two cruise ships (712 Diamond Princess and 60+ on the Grand Princess) as per the CDC. Ten of those have so far died. Many more will have complications (lung damage). Most of those on the ship did not catch COVID-19 so they should not be part of the mortality rate. With access to good healthcare roughly 1% of COVID-19 people die. With overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing that number rises to 3-4%. That is why there is an emphasis on flattening the curve. The flu mortality rate varies greatly by season but on average 0.1 % of people who catch the flu die. The CDC is estimating that the death rate from COVID-19 is around 1%. So if you catch COVID-19 it is ten times deadlier than the flu. That is with good hospital care. This is not fake news or media hype.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
03-26-2020, 09:41 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by flightmedic01
Just keep in mind that you don’t want to burn the whole house down trying to kill a spider.
I'll respond to Sparta's post when I can be more civil.
I'm not known to sugar coat things and I don't like when data is ignored to spin a bovine excrement story.
03-26-2020, 09:45 AM
#39
On Reserve
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 23
Originally Posted by Sparta
There were roughly 800 positives for Covid-19 between the two cruise ships (712 Diamond Princess and 60+ on the Grand Princess) as per the CDC. Ten of those have so far died. Many more will have complications (lung damage). Most of those on the ship did not catch COVID-19 so they should not be part of the mortality rate. With access to good healthcare roughly 1% of COVID-19 people die. With overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing that number rises to 3-4%. That is why there is an emphasis on flattening the curve. The flu mortality rate varies greatly by season but on average 0.1 % of people who catch the flu die. The CDC is estimating that the death rate from COVID-19 is around 1%. So if you catch COVID-19 it is ten times deadlier than the flu. That is with good hospital care. This is not fake news or media hype.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
On a separate note I spent a good deal of the morning searching local drug stores for an oximeter. My wife, a doctor, has COVID-19 and is going on day six of high fever, aches and trouble breathing. She is monitoring her oxygen level so that if/when it gets too low we can get her admitted. She has had the flu and she would want all to know that at least in her case she has never had anything like this. She is worried about dying and wanted me to review our will. We discussed who would raise our children. She is healthy with no underlying medical conditions. Listen to the medical experts and not the news or the politicians. When COVID-19 knocks on your door it will change how you view it.
is that you MSNBC/CNN? Quit spreading fake stories about fake illness in your family. If I’m wrong, and you’re being serious shame on me!
03-26-2020, 09:47 AM
#40
P/T Gear Slinger
Joined APC: May 2017
Position: Airbus
Posts: 824
Originally Posted by flightmedic01
Just keep in mind that you don’t want to burn the whole house down trying to kill a spider.
The economy, business and consumer confidence comes roaring back?
Seriously, just give it a couple of weeks and then tell us what you think.
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