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Old 04-15-2020, 03:37 AM
  #11  
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Gas will cheap for the next year or two and you can make money in an RJ at 50-60% capacity with cheap gas. Not true with a 320 or 73.
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Old 04-15-2020, 05:18 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by bababouey View Post
I really don't know, the current space only uses them to augment an operation, not carry it. RJ standalone carriers have been tried before, only to fail. I don't think they're a good business to be in, which is probably why Parker owns 3 of them.
the regionals are designed to feed mainline, no matter which brand. most rural airports are served via the Essential Air Service program

https://www.raa.org/who-we-are/

Regional airlines provide critical links connecting communities throughout North America to the national and international air transport networks and the vast economic benefits that connectivity brings. It is likely that you have flown on regional airlines regularly. In many cases, flights with fewer than 100 seats feature major airline branding and are operated by regional airline partners under code-sharing agreements. These airlines have their own operating certificates and their own employees. Some regional airlines serve communities through the Essential Air Service (EAS) program. Often, regional airlines are the only viable transportation link for small communities.

RAA provides a unified voice of advocacy for North American regional airlines aimed at promoting a safe, reliable and strong regional airline industry and serves as an important support network connecting regional airlines and industry business partners, enabling them to share best practices.
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Old 04-15-2020, 05:38 AM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules View Post
Gas will cheap for the next year or two and you can make money in an RJ at 50-60% capacity with cheap gas. Not true with a 320 or 73.
just visiting here but ex EV; you'll probably find the economics of a 320neo better than an RJ. 186 pax burning ~2000lb/h side. those are RJ fuel numbers!
counterintuitively ; low fuel prices might keep less efficient fleets flying longer in the short term; so the CRJ200/145s might get a new lease on life...
hang in there all..
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Old 04-15-2020, 06:54 AM
  #14  
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If RJ’s were not profitable. They would have not made it past 9/11 and 2008.... they will make it pas covid-19. Yes much smaller fleets. But regionals will be around..
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Old 04-15-2020, 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by amcnd View Post
If RJ’s were not profitable. They would have not made it past 9/11 and 2008.... they will make it pas covid-19. Yes much smaller fleets. But regionals will be around..
RJ's are the only profitable way to provide 3x daily frequency on routes which can't come close to filling up a NB.

By the same token 50-seaters have a slight but much slimmer advantage over 70 seaters. That plus the fact that 50-seaters are pretty much all paid for keeps them flying.

Except for a handful of niche high-dollar markets, economics would NOT support most 50-seat ops if the planes had to be purchased/leased new... that's why nobody is actually looking to manufacturer new 50-seat jets. I'd probably expect to see 50-seat turboprops first.

There's a scope-defined niche for 50-seaters, but no manufacturer thinks that would work with new, vice used, jets.

Maybe that's something BCA could work on, after they shutdown the Max for good, go BK and get taken over by the federal government.
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:35 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
RJ's are the only profitable way to provide 3x daily frequency on routes which can't come close to filling up a NB.

By the same token 50-seaters have a slight but much slimmer advantage over 70 seaters. That plus the fact that 50-seaters are pretty much all paid for keeps them flying.

Except for a handful of niche high-dollar markets, economics would NOT support most 50-seat ops if the planes had to be purchased/leased new... that's why nobody is actually looking to manufacturer new 50-seat jets. I'd probably expect to see 50-seat turboprops first.

There's a scope-defined niche for 50-seaters, but no manufacturer thinks that would work with new, vice used, jets.

Maybe that's something BCA could work on, after they shutdown the Max for good, go BK and get taken over by the federal government.



Sarcastic or serious with your BCA comment?
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Old 04-15-2020, 05:06 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by Paid2fly View Post
Sarcastic or serious with your BCA comment?
I'm concerned at this point.

Not sure how they would deal with BCA being unsustainable since the other divisions (at least defense) should still be profitable. Most of the BCA assets are only valuable as-is to someone who wants to make commercial planes.

Their WB programs were still churning out planes, but who needs long-haul planes now, other than cargo (and that too will fall off if the economy goes down hard)?

There are calls to just let them fail (same people saying let the airlines fail), but Boeing is the largest US exporter...

They might end up seriously restructured, Max dead, and the new entity developing a new NB? Three months ago I would have said no way would max fail, but COVID is boulder dropped on the head of a company which was already on thin ice.
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Old 04-15-2020, 05:11 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
I'm concerned at this point.

Not sure how they would deal with BCA being unsustainable since the other divisions (at least defense) should still be profitable. Most of the BCA assets are only valuable as-is to someone who wants to make commercial planes.

Their WB programs were still churning out planes, but who needs long-haul planes now, other than cargo (and that too will fall off if the economy goes down hard)?

There are calls to just let them fail (same people saying let the airlines fail), but Boeing is the largest US exporter...

They might end up seriously restructured, Max dead, and the new entity developing a new NB? Three months ago I would have said no way would max fail, but COVID is boulder dropped on the head of a company which was already on thin ice.
BCA restructuring would be a pretty huge ordeal. "Do we want to pay billions of dollars to fix a plane no-one needs right now?"
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Old 04-15-2020, 07:43 PM
  #19  
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Boeing simply needs fixing. I think it was once was one of the best run companies in the country. In fact I still have stock in it. But it has gone downhill considerably. The ridiculous execution of the KC-46 program:

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/03/...ound-problems/

now aggravated further by coronavirus:

https://www.defensenews.com/coronavi...et-sound-area/


the botched Starliner launch:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...-unflattering/

and the pretty well known to everyone MAX problems really seem only to be the tip of the iceberg.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN21W247

One could honestly say that the company has been grossly mismanaged since they moved their HQ to Chicago, which is hell and gone from ANY of its production facilities.

While I’m not selling my Boeing stock (mostly because I bought it long ago, lost the paperwork during a PCS move, and don’t have a clue about my basis) I no longer believe it’s too big to fail. If it doesn’t get it’s act together - and pronto - I could see it going under, or at least being parted out as multiple smaller companies...
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Old 04-15-2020, 08:06 PM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
If it doesn’t get it’s act together - and pronto - I could see it going under, or at least being parted out as multiple smaller companies...
Yeah that's what I'm afraid of. And china would buy the commercial airplanes part.

Unfortunately it may be too late to get their act together... who's going to buy Max's any time soon? How many times can they stand getting hit in the face by Mike Tyson (they stepped into the first one)?
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