mkitrn

When demand per route is cut by 95% and say it only comes back to 50% would an RJ stand alone carrier not make more sense or would flying an airbus/Boeing with 40 passengers on it still be more profitable?

rickair7777

Airlines will likely cut frequency and use NB's if they don't have RJ's available (scoped and on contract).

The real value of RJ's is actually frequency, not cost... even with cheap labor they still have higher CASM that larger jets.

Frequency was king for a very long time, and will be again, but as an interim measure it can be sacrificed. As loads pick up and competitors offer more frequency, then you'll have to do that too. That's why small towns have 3-4x daily RJ service instead of one daily NB (which would be more cost-effective). An A380 every other Tuesday would be most cost-effective, but obviously the frequency won't work for most people... although they do that in the third world, where many folks only fly once or twice in their lifetime so cost is more important than exactly when they travel.

In theory an AirIndy / Aquafresh model might be possible, but everybody who has tried that has failed. And no regional with good contract(s) will ever go there, because their major partner(s) are not going to pay a regional while it evolves into a competitor. So it would almost have to be a single-partner regional who gets fired and is desperate to survive.

Actually there are a couple such startups, breeze and the other one. But they're using 100+ -seaters, not 50's.

sanicom3205

Why do you guys never see the fact that arguing for an increase in lower paying jobs is a bad thing? Serious question. It comes up time and time again here, and is severely against your best interests.

Tom Bradys Cat

CASM isnt the right metric to use when most of your seats are empty. It is only a good measure when the planes are full.

da42pilot

From what I’ve heard, the ExpressJet branded model was actually quite successful... until oil prices skyrocketed. Passengers loved it and it was profitable.

rickair7777

If it can't survive a downturn, it's not successful.

rickair7777

By reducing frequency, they can get the loads high enough on planes with good CASM, ie narrowbodies. Only temporary.

They will do that before they acquire/contract for additional RJ's.

Existing RJs under contract may well cover mainline routes, they did that last time because they couldn't get out of the contracts and it was cheaper to park mainline airplanes than buy out regional contracts early.

rickair7777

Expedited vaccine, potential fall timeframe (this ones in the UK)...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21Z25M

senecacaptain

Yet another solution manufactured overseas ? September ? Just in time for the re-surge in cases. I am cautiously optimistic.

Happyflyer

I think if it gets bad they'll have to shrink to 3-4 hubs each and domestic code sharing will be a thing again.