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TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row

Old 07-26-2020, 09:20 AM
  #1661  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Nor am I the only one in the world that believes it likely we may never get a good vaccine. Something like a quarter of the colds we get are due to four human coronaviruses, HKU1, 229E, NL63 and OC43 , and even after having one, the subsequent immunity seems of reasonably short duration:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.20082032v1

34 weeks after having a human coronavirus your chance of being reinfected by the same coronavirus is the same as someone who has never had it. That does not bode well for a ‘good’ vaccine, and it is entirely consistent with the veterinary experience with animal coronaviruses which is one of relatively poor and short-lived success.

So please forgive me, Goggles, but I don’t think that brainstorming other potential options is necessarily a bad idea.
I agree that there will likely never be an effective CV vaccine. I tell people that if we still can’t figure out a vaccine to the common cold, we shouldn’t be optimistic about a CV vaccine.

Coldly, I think natural selection will tamp down the lethality of the disease over the next generation or two (20-40 years). We will have to accept that those who are immunocompromised or live unhealthy lifestyles will be at a much higher risk to this disease than the more resilient, or watch the global economy collapse. Maybe this will ultimately end smoking and encourage healthy living. But science will rule, and natural selection will ultimately breed a healthier species.

Until then, it’s masks, Zoom, a depressed global economy, and maybe a world war (these are the economic conditions that historically preceded WW). Humanity has become excessively risk averse, and prioritizes safety above everything else, including livelihoods. I really think we’re looking at 10+ years of stunted growth as the global marketplace transforms, and instability to the global order as aggressors look to take advantage of the weakened global condition.
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Old 07-26-2020, 09:28 AM
  #1662  
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Originally Posted by Knobcrk1 View Post
And you can claim this how? Even the experts don’t know. Also only around 1% of the US has been infected by the virus, at least officially, and it still caused all this mayhem. Herd immunity will take a lot more than a single digit infection percentage. I think we’re going to go on like this for at least another year. Openings and shutdowns until we get it under control and then by then we will have some kind of vaccine that will help from people getting reinfected until it finally goes away maybe years from now. The last big one went away after about 2 years and that wasn’t as bad as this one.
The current CDC inferred iFR is 0.21% for COVID-19. The S-iFR is 0.35% but the CDC estimates that 40% of the population remain asymptomatic throughout infection, making the best estimate for iFR currently 0.21%.

Assuming the CDC numbers are correct with approximately 150,000 US deaths to date that would mean approximately 71,000,000 Americans have already been infected (with a iFR of 0.21% approximately 1 in 470 people infected die). The iFR has been declining (typical for pandemics), so the 71 million number may be a bit of an over-estimation.

The CDC has also estimated they at most only record 1 out of every 10 infections. Currently about 4.1 million Americans have been diagnosed, which means there are approximately 41,000,000 COVID infections to date.

Using these numbers the decline in the cases and deaths in the Northeast US likely mean that the overwhelming majority have already been infected, not because of mask wearing. Some of the best outcomes have been in Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Switzerland where schools have remained open and very few wear masks (there are no mandates aside from public transportation).

The best estimate for herd immunity is 60% of the population infected. That would mean the US with current trends will achieve herd immunity within 150-200 more days, much sooner than a potentially effective vaccine can be disseminated.

Anything to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 is a failure at this point, it's likely about 25% of the US or more has already been infected, and with likely 700,000+ new cases per day the ability for any control is futile. The economically destructive policies have been a total failure, the lockdown was a destructive waste.

Why there is still policy attempting to reduce transmission of a disease with a iFR of 0.21% is mind boggling, as is repressing the rights and behavior of groups that aren't effected (the healthy and the youth) while allowing the elderly to shop as they normally would. As previous policies have been a total failure (New York state has had one of the highest death rates in the world), it's mind boggling there is still public support for these policies to continue.

There are diseases that are much more lethal that have been with us for centuries that we do not care about, some, like heart disease, we even encourage.

By the way, herd immunity at a 60% threshold with a current iFR of 0.21% would mean 400,000 Americans in total will die before herd immunity is potentially achieved. That's when COVID deaths will more or less end. More than 800,000 Americans die from heart disease every year. The only place COVID is a big deal is in the heads of those with a hysterical agenda.
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Old 07-26-2020, 09:40 AM
  #1663  
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Originally Posted by flysnoopy76 View Post
Lets be real here, yes Alaska has a lot of folks volunteering for leaves which at this point has mitigated the October furlough threat, but given the current trajectory of the virus and its effects on future bookings the chances of Alaska furloughing next year remains high.

Probably not next year, unless there is completely economic turmoil. Which is a possibility.

If this is still going on in 2022 with no end in sight yeah. Most airlines would be done or shrink to survive.


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Old 07-26-2020, 09:58 AM
  #1664  
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Closed. Start a new one talking about TSA numbers
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