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Old 05-25-2020, 03:27 PM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by Downtime View Post
A much slower mutation rate.
and we know that how?

RNA viruses have high mutation rates that result in several slightly different versions of the viral genome being made each time the viral genome is replicated (Figure 1). This creates a viral population with diverse genomes, known as a quasispecies. With each viral replication cycle, the differences accumulate between the original viral genome and the progeny viral genomes. This may contribute to differences in clinical outcomes between patients, as the viral populations that are infecting them are slightly different. The fact that there are multiple versions of
the viruses also makes it challenging to categorize viruses as different species. Instead, the genomes will have varying levels
of relatedness to one another. This is why the CSG assessed the relative levels of relatedness between and within SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the level of relatedness between other and within other coronavirus species.
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....whitepaper.pdf

From the limited data we have, coronaviruses mutate at least a third as frequently as influenza:

How COVID-19 Mutations Compare to Other RNA Viruses
All viruses mutate at different rates. More than 25 RNA viruses have been measured in labs, with individual viruses counted for mutations. Scientists have found that anywhere from one in ten thousand to one in a million RNA virus particles contains a mutation, depending on the type.

Here are some mutation rate estimates for other known viruses. This number tells you roughly how many viral particle mutants will exist in a given viral population:

Influenza A: 319/10,000,000, (.00319%)
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): 9,927/100,000,000 (.009927%)
Measles: 9/100,000, (.009%)
Poliovirus 1: 3/10,000 (.03%)
This does not tell the whole story about a virus' potential to mutate, but it offers a rough idea of how easily and often they do.

COVID-19 is not as well-studied as these other diseases. But an estimated range of its mutation rate has emerged from a study of 30 publicly available samples of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers at Johns Hopkins estimate the mutation rate of COVID-19 at:

COVID 19: 21/20,000 (.00105%) to 63/50,000 (.00126%)
https://www.medicinenet.com/when_cov...risks-news.htm

But that is still incredibly frequently given that an infected person will have huge numbers of viral particles. The saving grace is that novel viruses tend to mutate toward DECREASED virulence because the strains that are less deadly more successfully spread.

Last edited by Excargodog; 05-25-2020 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 05-25-2020, 05:08 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
and we know that how?



https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....whitepaper.pdf

From the limited data we have, coronaviruses mutate at least a third as frequently as influenza:



https://www.medicinenet.com/when_cov...risks-news.htm

But that is still incredibly frequently given that an infected person will have huge numbers of viral particles. The saving grace is that novel viruses tend to mutate toward DECREASED virulence because the strains that are less deadly more successfully spread.
Worth pointing out is that mutation is a random process, it's not like the viruses are intentionally optimizing themselves to be dangerous or contagious... the vast majority of mutations lead nowhere fast.

The very few "successful" or beneficial mutations produce some benefit to the propagation and survival of the bug... as he pointed out ^^^ that typically does not translate to more dangerous or deadly.
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Old 05-25-2020, 05:42 PM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
617 US deaths today, the lowest number since Mar 29. And those deaths reflect infections acquired at least a week ago. New cases diagnosed continue to decline, despite massively increased testing.
505 today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Old 05-26-2020, 06:31 AM
  #54  
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After a very brief look at their data, they are suggesting via projections that the virus will essentially be gone (below 5000 total infections country wide) from the US by late July?
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Old 05-26-2020, 06:56 AM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by TheOtherGuy25 View Post
After a very brief look at their data, they are suggesting via projections that the virus will essentially be gone (below 5000 total infections country wide) from the US by late July?
Do you have the source for that? I haven't seen that anywhere. We are still above 20k new diagnosed infections daily with a 10 to 21 day latency period from infection to diagnosis.

Patients with less serious illness due to the virus are being diagnosed now with more accessible testing. That does skew the data a bit.

Good news is deaths and intubations are down. Much better protocols have evolved over the past 90 days. some more successful than others.
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Old 05-26-2020, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by OpMidClimax View Post
Do you have the source for that? I haven't seen that anywhere. We are still above 20k new diagnosed infections daily with a 10 to 21 day latency period from infection to diagnosis.

Patients with less serious illness due to the virus are being diagnosed now with more accessible testing. That does skew the data a bit.

Good news is deaths and intubations are down. Much better protocols have evolved over the past 90 days. some more successful than others.
My bad. I was looking on my tiny phone screen at the graphs from the site linked above, its actually showing estimated daily infections down to under 8000 a day by August. Sorry. Still hope it's accurate and that curve is all but dead flat by late August or Early Sept
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:08 PM
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USG awards $628M to fast-track production of another vaccine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2382DO


Eli Lilly developing an anti-body treatment:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23825Y
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Old 06-05-2020, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by TheOtherGuy25 View Post
After a very brief look at their data, they are suggesting via projections that the virus will essentially be gone (below 5000 total infections country wide) from the US by late July?
I saw a prediction of something like this about the US from scientists in Singapore or possibly Taiwan I can’t remember. They claimed at these rates the virus will be gone by fall IF everyone continued to follow the prevention guidelines...
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Old 06-16-2020, 07:25 AM
  #59  
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Hydroxy-C may have been a bust, but looks like the Brits found that an anti-inflammatory, dexamethasone, reduces significantly fatalities in serious cases.

A successful trial has been completed and the OK Public Health Service is going all-in with this. Looks like science-based policy, as opposed to hype.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23N1VP
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Hydroxy-C may have been a bust, but looks like the Brits found that an anti-inflammatory, dexamethasone, reduces significantly fatalities in serious cases.

A successful trial has been completed and the OK Public Health Service is going all-in with this. Looks like science-based policy, as opposed to hype.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23N1VP
After initially saying that steroids should be withheld because they would increase the risk of cytokine storm. And yesterday Fauci admitted they knowingly lied to the public about wearing masks early on because the supply chain was broken and they wanted to save the ‘good’ masks for the first responders.

Now I’ll buy off on the instructions to hold off on the dexamethasone as at least a theoretical possibility and part of the lore (like chloroquine) that came out of the disaster that was the overtaxed Wuhan medical establishment doing their best.

Lying to the population because you don’t believe they can be trusted to do the right thing if they know the truth causes me to lose all respect for the people who elected that course of action though. And they demean the terms scientist and physician when they claim them.
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