Vaccine Results Looking Good!
#51
and we know that how?
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....whitepaper.pdf
From the limited data we have, coronaviruses mutate at least a third as frequently as influenza:
https://www.medicinenet.com/when_cov...risks-news.htm
But that is still incredibly frequently given that an infected person will have huge numbers of viral particles. The saving grace is that novel viruses tend to mutate toward DECREASED virulence because the strains that are less deadly more successfully spread.
RNA viruses have high mutation rates that result in several slightly different versions of the viral genome being made each time the viral genome is replicated (Figure 1). This creates a viral population with diverse genomes, known as a quasispecies. With each viral replication cycle, the differences accumulate between the original viral genome and the progeny viral genomes. This may contribute to differences in clinical outcomes between patients, as the viral populations that are infecting them are slightly different. The fact that there are multiple versions of
the viruses also makes it challenging to categorize viruses as different species. Instead, the genomes will have varying levels
of relatedness to one another. This is why the CSG assessed the relative levels of relatedness between and within SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the level of relatedness between other and within other coronavirus species.
the viruses also makes it challenging to categorize viruses as different species. Instead, the genomes will have varying levels
of relatedness to one another. This is why the CSG assessed the relative levels of relatedness between and within SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the level of relatedness between other and within other coronavirus species.
From the limited data we have, coronaviruses mutate at least a third as frequently as influenza:
How COVID-19 Mutations Compare to Other RNA Viruses
All viruses mutate at different rates. More than 25 RNA viruses have been measured in labs, with individual viruses counted for mutations. Scientists have found that anywhere from one in ten thousand to one in a million RNA virus particles contains a mutation, depending on the type.
Here are some mutation rate estimates for other known viruses. This number tells you roughly how many viral particle mutants will exist in a given viral population:
Influenza A: 319/10,000,000, (.00319%)
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): 9,927/100,000,000 (.009927%)
Measles: 9/100,000, (.009%)
Poliovirus 1: 3/10,000 (.03%)
This does not tell the whole story about a virus' potential to mutate, but it offers a rough idea of how easily and often they do.
COVID-19 is not as well-studied as these other diseases. But an estimated range of its mutation rate has emerged from a study of 30 publicly available samples of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers at Johns Hopkins estimate the mutation rate of COVID-19 at:
COVID 19: 21/20,000 (.00105%) to 63/50,000 (.00126%)
All viruses mutate at different rates. More than 25 RNA viruses have been measured in labs, with individual viruses counted for mutations. Scientists have found that anywhere from one in ten thousand to one in a million RNA virus particles contains a mutation, depending on the type.
Here are some mutation rate estimates for other known viruses. This number tells you roughly how many viral particle mutants will exist in a given viral population:
Influenza A: 319/10,000,000, (.00319%)
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): 9,927/100,000,000 (.009927%)
Measles: 9/100,000, (.009%)
Poliovirus 1: 3/10,000 (.03%)
This does not tell the whole story about a virus' potential to mutate, but it offers a rough idea of how easily and often they do.
COVID-19 is not as well-studied as these other diseases. But an estimated range of its mutation rate has emerged from a study of 30 publicly available samples of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers at Johns Hopkins estimate the mutation rate of COVID-19 at:
COVID 19: 21/20,000 (.00105%) to 63/50,000 (.00126%)
But that is still incredibly frequently given that an infected person will have huge numbers of viral particles. The saving grace is that novel viruses tend to mutate toward DECREASED virulence because the strains that are less deadly more successfully spread.
Last edited by Excargodog; 05-25-2020 at 03:55 PM.
#52
and we know that how?
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....whitepaper.pdf
From the limited data we have, coronaviruses mutate at least a third as frequently as influenza:
https://www.medicinenet.com/when_cov...risks-news.htm
But that is still incredibly frequently given that an infected person will have huge numbers of viral particles. The saving grace is that novel viruses tend to mutate toward DECREASED virulence because the strains that are less deadly more successfully spread.
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....whitepaper.pdf
From the limited data we have, coronaviruses mutate at least a third as frequently as influenza:
https://www.medicinenet.com/when_cov...risks-news.htm
But that is still incredibly frequently given that an infected person will have huge numbers of viral particles. The saving grace is that novel viruses tend to mutate toward DECREASED virulence because the strains that are less deadly more successfully spread.
The very few "successful" or beneficial mutations produce some benefit to the propagation and survival of the bug... as he pointed out ^^^ that typically does not translate to more dangerous or deadly.
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 139
#55
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2018
Posts: 564
Patients with less serious illness due to the virus are being diagnosed now with more accessible testing. That does skew the data a bit.
Good news is deaths and intubations are down. Much better protocols have evolved over the past 90 days. some more successful than others.
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 140
Do you have the source for that? I haven't seen that anywhere. We are still above 20k new diagnosed infections daily with a 10 to 21 day latency period from infection to diagnosis.
Patients with less serious illness due to the virus are being diagnosed now with more accessible testing. That does skew the data a bit.
Good news is deaths and intubations are down. Much better protocols have evolved over the past 90 days. some more successful than others.
Patients with less serious illness due to the virus are being diagnosed now with more accessible testing. That does skew the data a bit.
Good news is deaths and intubations are down. Much better protocols have evolved over the past 90 days. some more successful than others.
#57
USG awards $628M to fast-track production of another vaccine:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2382DO
Eli Lilly developing an anti-body treatment:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23825Y
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2382DO
Eli Lilly developing an anti-body treatment:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23825Y
#58
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
I saw a prediction of something like this about the US from scientists in Singapore or possibly Taiwan I can’t remember. They claimed at these rates the virus will be gone by fall IF everyone continued to follow the prevention guidelines...
#59
Hydroxy-C may have been a bust, but looks like the Brits found that an anti-inflammatory, dexamethasone, reduces significantly fatalities in serious cases.
A successful trial has been completed and the OK Public Health Service is going all-in with this. Looks like science-based policy, as opposed to hype.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23N1VP
A successful trial has been completed and the OK Public Health Service is going all-in with this. Looks like science-based policy, as opposed to hype.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23N1VP
#60
Hydroxy-C may have been a bust, but looks like the Brits found that an anti-inflammatory, dexamethasone, reduces significantly fatalities in serious cases.
A successful trial has been completed and the OK Public Health Service is going all-in with this. Looks like science-based policy, as opposed to hype.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23N1VP
A successful trial has been completed and the OK Public Health Service is going all-in with this. Looks like science-based policy, as opposed to hype.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23N1VP
Now I’ll buy off on the instructions to hold off on the dexamethasone as at least a theoretical possibility and part of the lore (like chloroquine) that came out of the disaster that was the overtaxed Wuhan medical establishment doing their best.
Lying to the population because you don’t believe they can be trusted to do the right thing if they know the truth causes me to lose all respect for the people who elected that course of action though. And they demean the terms scientist and physician when they claim them.
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