C-19 Infection Fatality Rate 0.02% to 0.40%
05-23-2020, 07:02 PM
#11
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Originally Posted by kalipilot
The subways at rush hour are a fantastic way to spread the virus. People packed in strap hanging and breathing on each other in those enclosed cars. If workers in care facilities took mass transit to work then spent significant time with patients that could have been a way it got to them. Visitors as well. The other way i was thinking it could spread in NYC was my apartments. If it can be transmitted easily from surfaces and everyone in the apartment building uses the same door handle to get in...
But if we are talking about spreading, my understanding is that NYC reduced the subway schedule during the lockdown, which led to subways being at least as or more crowded than normal. That seems like a bad decision, since the subway is a necessary means of transit there. If anything, the available subway capacity should be increased as much as possible.
The significance of surface contamination is under debate, as of late.
Again, I think we need to be focusing on how/why vulnerable populations like nursing homes are getting exposed and come up with realistic solutions to protect them. From the paper:
While COVID-19 is a formidable threat, the fact that its IFR is much lower than originally feared, is a welcome piece of evidence. The fact that its IFR can vary substantially also based on case-mix and settings involved also creates additional ground for evidence-based, more precise management strategies. Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having the virus infect people and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes. These measures may be possible to be far more precise and tailored to specific high-risk individuals and settings than blind lock down of the entire society.
05-24-2020, 04:05 AM
#12
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Joined APC: Feb 2014
Posts: 98
Originally Posted by Anson Harris
I agree that subways probably are good spreaders. However, I think we have to think beyond how it spreads and think about how to stop vulnerable populations from getting infected. I don't think we can realistically stop it from spreading throughout the population as a whole any more, but the good news is that it doesn't seem to matter that much for most of the population.
But if we are talking about spreading, my understanding is that NYC reduced the subway schedule during the lockdown, which led to subways being at least as or more crowded than normal. That seems like a bad decision, since the subway is a necessary means of transit there. If anything, the available subway capacity should be increased as much as possible.
The significance of surface contamination is under debate, as of late.
Again, I think we need to be focusing on how/why vulnerable populations like nursing homes are getting exposed and come up with realistic solutions to protect them. From the paper:
But if we are talking about spreading, my understanding is that NYC reduced the subway schedule during the lockdown, which led to subways being at least as or more crowded than normal. That seems like a bad decision, since the subway is a necessary means of transit there. If anything, the available subway capacity should be increased as much as possible.
The significance of surface contamination is under debate, as of late.
Again, I think we need to be focusing on how/why vulnerable populations like nursing homes are getting exposed and come up with realistic solutions to protect them. From the paper:
05-24-2020, 07:08 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 514
Originally Posted by kalipilot
Good points. I saw something about surface contamination. Hopefully thats true. This whole thing reminds me of the early AIDS crisis where so much was unknown about its transmission.
05-24-2020, 07:19 AM
#14
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,190
Originally Posted by Anson Harris
The significance of surface contamination is under debate, as of late.
It's as easy as 1-2-3:
1) Don't not touch your face in public. If you absolutely must, sanitize your hands first.
2) Wash/sanitize your hands a lot
3) Whoever "owns" high touch points, wipe them down regularly.
I've been doing that for years, rarely get colds and never get the flu... lesson learned from my first year in the airlines.
Originally Posted by Anson Harris
Again, I think we need to be focusing on how/why vulnerable populations like nursing homes are getting exposed and come up with realistic solutions to protect them. From the paper:
05-24-2020, 07:21 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 1,170
Originally Posted by kalipilot
The subways at rush hour are a fantastic way to spread the virus. People packed in strap hanging and breathing on each other in those enclosed cars. If workers in care facilities took mass transit to work then spent significant time with patients that could have been a way it got to them. Visitors as well. The other way i was thinking it could spread in NYC was my apartments. If it can be transmitted easily from surfaces and everyone in the apartment building uses the same door handle to get in...
05-24-2020, 07:55 AM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2018
Posts: 564
Originally Posted by kalipilot
Good points. I saw something about surface contamination. Hopefully thats true. This whole thing reminds me of the early AIDS crisis where so much was unknown about its transmission.
Example... if virus is on the mail. You bring the mail onto your kitchen counter. The kitchen counter may have some live virus but will not be enough to inoculate someone.
This does not refute, infected individual blows nose and touches a common surface. That surface will have enough live virus to inoculate an individual.
Don't touch you face, eyes, nose or mouth.
You can pick your friends but you can't pick your friend's nose.
05-24-2020, 08:23 AM
#18
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Joined APC: Feb 2014
Posts: 98
Originally Posted by velosnow
Perfect reason to add more bike & pedestrian friendly surfaces to cities worldwide. Paris is adding 50km of permanent bike infrastructure and removing lanes of traffic taking notes from the Dutch. Take the stress off mass transit and get more people outside. Win-win.
05-24-2020, 12:19 PM
#19
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,269
Originally Posted by velosnow
Perfect reason to add more bike & pedestrian friendly surfaces to cities worldwide. Paris is adding 50km of permanent bike infrastructure and removing lanes of traffic taking notes from the Dutch. Take the stress off mass transit and get more people outside. Win-win.
05-24-2020, 12:34 PM
#20
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,476
Originally Posted by Anson Harris
Mass transit may be a factor in spread, but I think we would make bigger strides in reducing deaths if we could just figure out how to stop elderly people from getting infected and dying. Are elderly persons (esp those in care facilities) really using mass transit?
I'll completely admit my bias here as an airline employee, but I'm reluctant to blame mass transit as causing deaths. We don't seem to be seeing a lot of risk/death among airline employees or travelers, so even if it is spread that way it doesn't seen that consequential in terms of death.
At this point, my thoughts are that there's no practical way to stop the spread of the disease. However, we're extremely fortunate that it mostly impacts a specific segment of the population. We need to figure out how to protect them. Today, that means mostly protecting them from exposure, and it's clear that we're failing at that. There are some indications that we're getting better at treatment for those who become seriously ill. The vaccines are promising, and they may ultimately only be necessary for those who are at significant risk of severe illness and death from the disease.
I'll completely admit my bias here as an airline employee, but I'm reluctant to blame mass transit as causing deaths. We don't seem to be seeing a lot of risk/death among airline employees or travelers, so even if it is spread that way it doesn't seen that consequential in terms of death.
At this point, my thoughts are that there's no practical way to stop the spread of the disease. However, we're extremely fortunate that it mostly impacts a specific segment of the population. We need to figure out how to protect them. Today, that means mostly protecting them from exposure, and it's clear that we're failing at that. There are some indications that we're getting better at treatment for those who become seriously ill. The vaccines are promising, and they may ultimately only be necessary for those who are at significant risk of severe illness and death from the disease.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4956722/
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