velosnow

It works great in all cities of any size in fact, just need to create the opportunity & infrastructure for safe & efficient cycling. With the advent and growing popularity of e-bikes commuting and running errands via bike is much easier as well. Not saying it's a panacea but certainly helpful.

It certainly beats continuous adding lanes of traffic which has proven not to work over the years. Good ol' induced demand.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=1...aer.101.6.2616

Anson Harris

Sorry, I didn't realize that only NYC residents were familiar with their mass transit system. Is this a lifetime qualification bestowed upon all residents, or is there a recency of experience requirement (6 rides within the preceding 6 months)?

I don't believe I said that the MTA and airlines are equivalent spreaders, but I still would argue against imposing restrictions on mass transit (other than trying to keep the frequency up and congestion down). If nothing else, we've seen how slippery the slope is when it comes to "slowing the spread." It's politically difficult to say that mass transit systems need restrictions and airline travel doesn't. My argument is that we're beyond the containment point, so it doesn't matter (except as it informs measures to protect at-risk groups, like telling them not to ride the subway). Otherwise we end up with closed beaches, seed-buying bans, and other nonsense. I just want them to stop trying to control what they can't control, because it's so ineffective and painful for everyone.

If you have lived in NYC, then you probably realize how impractical restrictions on mass transit would be.

rickair7777

Media now calling it between 1.0% and 0.5%

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-first-thought


I suspect that will get revised further downward.

RustyChain

CDC already revised it down. The likely scenario is 0.4%, and if you're under 50, 0.05%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

AntiPeter

That article assumes that antibodies are needed and seroconversion is required for immunity. With other coronavirus it is common people have immunity without seroconversion. Why would COVID-19 be any different? I suspect the study is inherently flawed.

Per the CDC earlier this week their “best guess” iFR is about 0.26% (the S-IFR ~0.3% but they acknowledge about 35% of cases remain asymptomatic). So it’s already been revised downward, by more than half. The Oxford University iFR estimate is 0.10-0.36%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

On a side note, the news media (and even NPR) seem to be so selective in their reporting it seems reasonable that they are intentionally engaged in deception. Reporting frequently seems to go beyond scientific errors and in the realm of selecting specific studies and speculation that promote a disease that is much more severe than a consensus scientific opinion would indicate.

kingairfun

I've thought about saying to every obese individual eating a Big Mac... " hey man, I was forced to spend months on lockdown to save your fat a$$…."

Tom Bradys Cat

Serious question..... What fatality rate does the general population stop being scared?

I'm guessing the govt has a what if plan on the shelf based on different fatality rates......

AntiPeter

I’m unfortunately intimately familiar with hypochondria.

The rate could be zero and I’m not sure it would do much to change the behavior of people. Health fear is not based on rationality, if the fatality rate was zero those that need to be nervous will find something else to be scared of...like the “long term consequences” of infection (whatever that means).

MaxQ

Would not a more accurate fatality rate be the ratio of deaths vs deaths+recovered?

Or perhaps deaths vs total hospitalized?

To add to all this it has become very political, especially the last month or so, where the number of those infected, or fatalities from, have become suspect from a number of different states. How many hospitalized? How many critical? How much contact tracing? WTF knows. There does not seem to be any universal standard of data reporting.
Considering that the US was officially briefed about Covid 19 on Jan. 3rd, this has been about as uncoordinated and disfunctional a response imaginable.

FlyPurdue

deaths / deaths+recovered would typically work, but we don't know nearly what the 'recovered' number is. As we know now, there are a lot of cases that are completely asymptomatic or very mild, and would not show up unless tested.