Anson Harris

What's your evidence for this claim? "Because they said so?"

Flyfalcons

So do we still have time to be hitting 200,000 cases and 3,000 deaths per day by June 1st?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

rickair7777

It's not about haircuts and hotdogs, it's fundamentally about economic freedom and people watching their dreams, plans, and futures dry up and blow away.

GeeWizDriver

Some of you are remarkably easy to troll. The entire point was that certain people claim to be the arbiters of what is and isn’t “science.” The fact is, the data has been all over the map, the guidance has been all over the map, and for every “expert” that says the world is imploding there is an equally qualified “expert” that says this has been an overreaction, the mitigation efforts employed didn’t need to be nearly so draconian, and the pandemic can be managed. But far too many in this country are blinded by their moral narcissism and try to claim the moral high ground by insisting THEIR science is the one true science.

When the reality becomes funnier than the memes (search Nassau County Tennis Balls) it is clear that some local and state governments have gone off the rails.

GeeWizDriver

The flu “vaccine” was so effective in 2017-2018 flu season that over 79,400 died of the flu in the US alone. Reeaalll successful vaccine. Rabies and measles aren’t replicated via RNA the way the common cold, the flu, and HIV are. None of which have effective vaccines.

Vincent Chase

Be careful, looks like you might already be in the double digit area.

If masks work, why can't America get back to normal?
If they don't (and we know this) why do we have to wear them?
There is no overwhelming of hospitals. There is no major spike in open states. Look at Florida's numbers. Don't just parrot what you heard on CNN or MSNBC or FOX. DYODD.
Social distance is fine. Washing hands is even better. But locking down people for political gain is just plain stupid.
Hopefully, I brought your IQ up a point.

Anson Harris

Yes, but it's a lot easier to belittle and make absurd comparisons.

It's also puzzling to hear the comparison to the Patriot Act. This is exactly the kind of trade off we often tolerate. It doesn't satisfy they types who insist that freedom can never be traded for safety, but only these types would argue that the Patriot Act had any significant impact on the freedom of most citizens. So why is this an argument for why it's now OK to actually harm and trample everyone's freedom, even as the benefit and need are increasingly questionable? They behave as if isolated infringements of freedoms for particular causes are never OK, but as long as "we're all in this together" anything is permissible.

RI830

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pande...iv18Uc&sfns=mo

Article posted below for those who don’t have a LinkedIn account.

When covid deaths are shadowed by the economic deaths.
Have a read. Everyone will put their own bias or spin on the article, but why are the suicides, child abuse and other economic deaths not being reported by the everyday dribble of the media?

RI830

Our most recent research is on nursing homes, hospices, and hospitals with a NY focus. Covid deaths are exaggerated because of how they are reported and many are reported as covid deaths without being tested. Moreover, there is a financial incentive to exaggerate the numbers. Even the CDC has a much lower covid death count when properly coded and estimated –37,308 as of May 1. Number of deaths reported by the CDC are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

Refining our research thus far, we have determined that the covid-19 mortality, death and case-fatalities rates are significantly lower than experts and policymakers currently believe. We have estimated the economic costs for various lockdown timelines and when the recovery can be phased in. The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.

We estimate an average household burden of $33,442 and $27,848 per employed due to the $4.3trn cost to save covid-19-related lives. The shorter the duration of the lockdown, the lower the cost and debt burden on the men and women who make our country great. This debt includes $3.8trn in deficit spending and $27trn in public debt, which, either separately or combined, will result in higher taxes, reduced social spending, lower job growth, GDP and living standards.

Numbers are central tendency estimates which likely will not match actual results. However, they are more than sufficient to make our trade-off argument that covid lives saved should not be exceeded by lives ruined and lives lost.

The cost in human lives

Using our estimates, a 31% increase in unemployment (47m) with a lockdown extending through May will result in a doubling of drug overdoses (69,735) and an additional 15,137 suicides. Together, these account for 84,872 layoff-related deaths, in addition to the base-case estimates of 134,475 COVID-19 deaths now projected by the IMHE researchers by August 4, 2020
The grim calculus of joblessness

According to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Lancet, a medical journal, every one percent hike in unemployment will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides.

For the year ending February 2019 (NCHS), 69,029 people died of drug overdoses, almost 7 out of 10 the result of opioids. Suicide, the tenth leading cause of death in the United States, accounted for 48,344 deaths (CDC), more than twice the number of homicides (19,510).

Lockdown-related deaths will add to the base-case number of covid-19 deaths and offsets 63% of the 140,381 now predicted by IMHE researchers.

The number of layoff-related drug overdoses and suicide deaths will soar as lockdown durations grow, and in tandem with job losses, debt obligations and economic costs.

Our base-case estimate is for 15 million unemployed by the end of 2020, assuming a phased-in recovery starting mid-May. Given the expected recovery, we now estimate 33,743 drug overdoses and 7,324 suicides, which sum to 41,067 layoff-related deaths. While not as grim, it increases total deaths related to covid-19.

We provide additional tables required to validate and support our trade-off conclusions in the following essay: The price of reducing needless deaths versus the price of COVID-19 lives saved: The grim calculus. The series of essays are from a longer covid study.
Although statistics for alcohol layoff-related deaths are not as strong, there is a robust correlation. For people aged 50–65, being unemployed is associated with increased drinking, mood swings, and depression, which highlights the need for prevention policies and interventions and to improve access to treatment services during an economic recession, especially for vulnerable groups such as those facing layoffs in middle age.

Given the lockdown costs in lives and treasury, is it not common sense to say that the U.S. must go back to work, perhaps gradually, in phases. A mid-May unlock would reduce the economic cost by approximately $1.2trn, unemployment by 5.2 million, and reduce layoff-related deaths. If grocery stores and Home Depot can operate safely as essential businesses, so can many others. Like a critically ill patient, the economy cannot be on life support indefinitely. This is especially true when wealth destruction from a prolonged lockdown harms our ability to fund healthcare.

With luck and ingenuity, scientists will develop a vaccine for the world’s people. For America’s economy, getting back to work is the best medicine. The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.

Wang Wei

Shutting down the country is not an act of choosing lives over the economy, it's an act of choosing some lives at the cost of other lives...