Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Pilot Lounge > Hangar Talk > COVID19
We need a plan B for no vaccine. >

We need a plan B for no vaccine.

Notices
COVID19 Pandemic Information and Reports

We need a plan B for no vaccine.

Old 06-26-2020, 08:06 PM
  #11  
Gets Weekends Off Rarely
 
Skylarking's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 185
Default

Originally Posted by Knobcrk1 View Post
In order for there to be herd immunity something like 200 million need to be infected. Also we don’t know if we can actually develop immunity in the long run, not to mention long term complications of contracting it. Also some hospitals in the states that are most populated with highest rates are sending patients to kids hospitals as they’ve ran out of space. The rates in these states are skyrocketing. And this is after like two weeks of openings. So again, how do you advocate doing it? What is the problem with wearing a mask and social distancing which the doctors are saying works, saves lives and curbs the rates.
Agreed, that number is probably about right (200M/330M = 60% of the population ~ herd immunity). Flattening the curve is not supposed to change that math; it's supposed to get us to the 200M or a vaccine (whichever comes first) in an orderly fashion. We do that much more safely by 1. Keeping the vulnerable more protected (we've been very half @ssed about this) and 2. Reasonable precautions (masks, etc.). I didn't really address reasonable precautions for the less vulnerable, so yes agreed there. But lock down? That only makes things worse in the long run. Restaurants, bars, sporting events, theme parks, air travel, etc. should be fair game, just wear a mask when seated in close proximity to another. Not saying we should have kissing booths set up to get it over with, but lock downs like the re-shut down of bars in TX are counter productive at this point. It's a balancing act and we're being way too protective of the less vulnerable and not protective enough of the vulnerable IMHO.

The only way to get around this reality in the near term is with a vaccine and I don't think that will happen before herd immunity. The CDC now says the number of infected in America is about 20M, so we've hit 10% of our "goal".
Skylarking is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 08:48 PM
  #12  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jun 2011
Posts: 506
Default

Originally Posted by Knobcrk1 View Post
Also we don’t know if we can actually develop immunity in the long run.
Herd immunity is not some be all end all permanent thing where once you've had it you never get it again. If that were the case we would have all stopped getting common colds as kids.

What they truly mean by herd immunity is that enough people have been exposed, and the virus has cycled enough times that it has self selected itself down to a mild strain. Its possible its already selecting down to a more moderate infection. If death rates don't go up from these surges in cases then I would take that as a good sign. We'll know in a couple of weeks.

My guess is no vaccine will ever be effectively created and this will become one of the circulating corona viruses that's already out there. I read an article the other day that about 15-30% (depending on the year and location) of common colds are caused by corona viruses. This will likely eventually carry about the same threat as the common cold. Which by the way, the common cold likely kills thousands or maybe even tens of thousands per year in America alone, especially high risk patients like the elderly or cancer patients. Its not like we can completely eliminate the risk of illness.

Despite our best efforts, the natural selection machine is still running on earth. While its tragic how much this has harmed the elderly, from a species perspective its good that the young are basically unaffected by the virus when it comes to mortality. The same could not be said for the 1918 flu.
kaputt is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 08:49 PM
  #13  
Anson Harris
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post
I think you are correct. There have already been effective treatments for those severely ill in ICUs, like steroids. Ironically, steroids were rejected as a treatment the first few months of the pandemic. Fatally rates have gone way down, I assume at least partially because treatments have gotten significantly better.
Absolutely. Statements like "there is no treatment for covid" are now false. EVMS claims that their hospitalized fatality rate for covid is down to ~3%. There's no reason that we should see runaway deaths from covid infection in the future, unless we refuse to "listen to the science" (medicine, in this case). With steroids, anti-coagulants, and potential synthetic antibody therapy, there will be much better outcomes for covid in the present and near future.

I will make a prediction that a covid vaccine will be developed, but it will end up being used for high-risk populations only. One caveat is if it miraculously ends up becoming available within the next 6 months or so. If that happens, every government will go wild making it available to the entire population, at least initially. After the current hysteria subsides, covid vaccine will only be a thing for high-risk groups.
 
Old 06-26-2020, 08:53 PM
  #14  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jun 2011
Posts: 506
Default

Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post

The bigger question is the pervasive irrational hypochondria that now exists among Americans. As one who has had hypochondria in the past, I know it is extremely difficult to become more rational and objective when dealing with fears of mortality and disease. To me this is a bigger problem to get things back to normal than the virus itself. The media and politicians are making the problem much, much worse. The manipulation that is causing depression, anxiety and hysteria is a black mark on humanity, it frustrates me how gullible people are and how they are blind to their own irrationality and misery, much of it unneeded. I've been there, and being anxious about health issues is a destructive mental hell I wouldn't wish on anyone.
This is a great point. There are millions of Americans that likely believe that COVID is essentially an automatic death sentence. The media's stake in this has been poor in my opinion.
kaputt is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 08:57 PM
  #15  
Perennial Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,409
Default

Originally Posted by Skylarking View Post
Agreed, that number is probably about right (200M/330M = 60% of the population ~ herd immunity). Flattening the curve is not supposed to change that math; it's supposed to get us to the 200M or a vaccine (whichever comes first) in an orderly fashion. We do that much more safely by 1. Keeping the vulnerable more protected (we've been very half @ssed about this) and 2. Reasonable precautions (masks, etc.). I didn't really address reasonable precautions for the less vulnerable, so yes agreed there. But lock down? That only makes things worse in the long run. Restaurants, bars, sporting events, theme parks, air travel, etc. should be fair game, just wear a mask when seated in close proximity to another. Not saying we should have kissing booths set up to get it over with, but lock downs like the re-shut down of bars in TX are counter productive at this point. It's a balancing act and we're being way too protective of the less vulnerable and not protective enough of the vulnerable IMHO.

The only way to get around this reality in the near term is with a vaccine and I don't think that will happen before herd immunity. The CDC now says the number of infected in America is about 20M, so we've hit 10% of our "goal".

If you believe this source, it’s quite possibly a lot higher than that. And a whole lot lower case-fatality rate then we’ve believed, lower perhaps than influenza itself.

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/20...ter-originally
Excargodog is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 09:12 PM
  #16  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
Default

Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
If you believe this source, it’s quite possibly a lot higher than that. And a whole lot lower case-fatality rate then we’ve believed, lower perhaps than influenza itself.

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/20...ter-originally
“Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.”


Your own articles go against you. “herd immunity” means mass deaths as it overwhelms the system. It’s literally in your article. Keep trying.
Knobcrk1 is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 09:19 PM
  #17  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
Default

Originally Posted by Skylarking View Post
tc.). I didn't really address reasonable precautions for the less vulnerable, so yes agreed there. But lock down? That only makes things worse in the long run. Restaurants, bars, sporting events, theme parks, air travel, etc. should be fair game, just wear a mask when seated in close proximity to another. Not saying we should have kissing booths set up to get it over with, but lock downs like the re-shut down of bars in TX are counter productive at this point. It's a balancing act and we're being way too protective of the less vulnerable and not protective enough of the vulnerable IMHO.

".
What is Texas supposed to do as their cases have exploded? What would you have them do as the hospital directors make the calls that they’re starting to get overwhelmed?
Knobcrk1 is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 09:24 PM
  #18  
Perennial Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,409
Default

Originally Posted by Knobcrk1 View Post
“Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.”


Your own articles go against you. “herd immunity” means mass deaths as it overwhelms the system. It’s literally in your article. Keep trying.
You appear to be math challenged. If the actual rate of coronavirus infection is what Penn State is suggesting, that is 80 TIMES what we have been counting, then the case-fatality rate is one-eightieth of what we have been saying it is. If they are right - and they may or may not be, their method hasn’t yet had time for full peer review - then there is really no stopping herd immunity. It’s going to happen long before any of the vaccines in development are going to be available, even assuming one of them is effective. The ship will have long since sailed.

Can mitigation efforts slow it down enough to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed? Very possibly. But it also indicates that a community acquired infection - with a low dose inoculum - is going to be far safer than a nursing home acquired infection or even an infection acquired by a young healthcare worker in a nursing home or hospital. But if the infection rate is truly 80 times what we have been lead to believe, no amount of testing and contract tracing will stop it and we will ultimately all become infected.
Excargodog is offline  
Old 06-26-2020, 09:31 PM
  #19  
Anson Harris
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Originally Posted by Knobcrk1 View Post
“Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.”


Your own articles go against you. “herd immunity” means mass deaths as it overwhelms the system. It’s literally in your article. Keep trying.
Nah, I don't think so. Even in NYC, they didn't use the temporary hospitals or Navy ships. It's not necessarily about hospital capacity, although that theoretically could be an issue (although I'd argue it hasn't actually been yet).

We first need to know how to treat the disease, which we didn't initially and seem to be very slow to understand even now. Meaningfully effective treatments for covid are relatively simple (compared to invastive ventilators), but still require basic hospital capacity and timely treatment. Hospital capacity (including emergency capacity) has not been in serious question in the US yet, but effective treatment and protection of vulnerable populations certainly has.
 
Old 06-26-2020, 09:42 PM
  #20  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
Default

Originally Posted by Anson Harris View Post
Nah, I don't think so. Even in NYC, they didn't use the temporary hospitals or Navy ships. It's not necessarily about hospital capacity, although that theoretically could be an issue (although I'd argue it hasn't actually been yet).

We first need to know how to treat the disease, which we didn't initially and seem to be very slow to understand even now. Meaningfully effective treatments for covid are relatively simple (compared to invastive ventilators), but still require basic hospital capacity and timely treatment. Hospital capacity (including emergency capacity) has not been in serious question in the US yet, but effective treatment and protection of vulnerable populations certainly has.
When you say the US, what part are you talking about? Sure, in places like Wyoming, but in Texas which has a population of like 30 million here.... they’re talking about using stadiums. Come on guys.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tex...n-centers/amp/
Knobcrk1 is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Flaps50
FedEx
129
12-17-2017 05:09 PM
shoelu
Major
24
12-21-2011 12:20 PM
Sir James
Money Talk
2
09-30-2005 06:42 AM
RockBottom
Major
3
09-23-2005 02:01 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices