We need a plan B for no vaccine.

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07-05-2020, 07:21 AM

#191

Excargodog

Perennial Reserve

Thread Starter

Joined APC: Jan 2018

Posts: 11,480

Quote:

Originally Posted by CantTaxiToACS

Just as a thought experiment, what if the cases keep going up but the daily deaths stay steady in July? I wonder if anything will be changed or more questions be asked.

or, more to the point, what if the cases keep going up but the deaths keep going DOWN?

https://ibb.co/RPBmmGJ]

https://ibb.co/chMj3L9]

Because cases have been going up since the 14 th of June approximately and deaths peaked in mid-April and have been coming down ever since.

07-05-2020, 02:22 PM

#192

Desdi

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jul 2018

Posts: 703

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

or, more to the point, what if the cases keep going up but the deaths keep going DOWN?

https://ibb.co/RPBmmGJ]

https://ibb.co/chMj3L9]

Because cases have been going up since the 14 th of June approximately and deaths peaked in mid-April and have been coming down ever since.

That would make some on here have their minds’ explode.... but it won’t deter them, they will ignore that, discount that, then move on to new talking points!

07-05-2020, 04:54 PM

#193

RustyChain

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Joined APC: Mar 2015

Posts: 514

What is going to happen is everyone will start to know someone that had it, they will hear the stories first hand about how it was "not bad", or "down for a couple days" and it will stop being this boogeyman, and people will realize it's not that bad.

07-05-2020, 06:24 PM

#194

Joachim

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Joined APC: Jan 2007

Posts: 745

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

or, more to the point, what if the cases keep going up but the deaths keep going DOWN?

https://ibb.co/RPBmmGJ]

https://ibb.co/chMj3L9]

Because cases have been going up since the 14 th of June approximately and deaths peaked in mid-April and have been coming down ever since.

There is a two week - three week lag between cases and deaths. The Jul 02 low in deaths coincides roughly with the jun 14 low in cases. If you need further proof look at the lag between initial spike in diagnosis and spike in deaths. Further keep in mind that spike in diagnosis was delayed due to unavailability in tests. You'll need data for late july to determine if the relationship between deaths and diagnosis is changing.

07-05-2020, 08:18 PM

#195

simuflite

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Joined APC: Feb 2008

Posts: 112

JuSt cHeCk bAcK iN tWo wEeKs!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

07-06-2020, 04:42 AM

#196

Huell

777 - ret

Joined APC: Apr 2020

Position: Waco CG-4 center seat

Posts: 863

Don't need no stinking plan B

It's a hoax.
It will be over by April.
Everything back to normal by Easter.

~~leadership~~

07-06-2020, 06:53 AM

#197

Joachim

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Joined APC: Jan 2007

Posts: 745

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huell

It's a hoax.
It will be over by April.
Everything back to normal by Easter.

~~leadership~~

Because the entirety of the earth revolves around U.S. Politics?

07-06-2020, 07:05 AM

#198

Huell

777 - ret

Joined APC: Apr 2020

Position: Waco CG-4 center seat

Posts: 863

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joachim

Because the entirety of the earth revolves around U.S. Politics?

Not at all. Just quotes I heard but now forget who the moron was that said it.

07-06-2020, 08:17 AM

#199

nludy

Line Holder

Joined APC: Jul 2016

Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by RustyChain

I think you're completely underestimating the danger of this virus. I know a few people that were "down for a few days", actually weeks, and I also know a few people that died. The ones that died were probably in better shape than 75% of the airline pilots over 40 years old I have worked with.

07-06-2020, 08:40 AM

#200

Downtime

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Joined APC: May 2020

Posts: 484

Quote:

Originally Posted by CantTaxiToACS

Just as a thought experiment, what if the cases keep going up but the daily deaths stay steady in July? I wonder if anything will be changed or more questions be asked.

It would most assuredly change the questions I would think. That being said the permanent injury rate is assumed to be about 1/3 of hospitalized patients. So really the hospital rate is the big number from what I can tell.