Vaccine Development Summary
 

Interesting article where the writer discusses various vaccines being developed, the biological strategies used (he covers 6 different methods), lists the Pharma that is working on them, and any published timelines, statuses, etc.

Covers about 30, although there are many more in the works. He believes these are the leading contenders.

No guarantee that any will work (or that more than one MIGHT work), but a nice summary. Technical enough to give it some meat; but you don’t have to be a doctor to understand it, either.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...update-june-29

Updated Tracker:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-tracker.html

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348876/

Don’t forget logistics...

I'm very confident something (more than one likely) will be in production and distribution by year end if not earlier. There has never in history been this much technology and money directed at a medical problem.

A coronavirus is a simple mechanism in the grand scheme of things, we've already mapped the genetics and chemistry of the thing... not hard at all with modern techniques to throw a custom-wrench into the gears, one way or another. Really the only things up in the air are safety and production scalability.

There are several vaccines which are already shown to behave in an acceptable manner, safety and efficacy. Side effects and antibody production are about what you'd expect and are in the ballpark with other vaccines in use. Timing of certification and deployment depends on urgency at this point, ie what's the risk tradeoff between early certification (under emergency authorization) vs the cost of a sustained on-going covid induced societal and economic train wreck.

It's true that biology is complex and you might get surprised but with about 200 candidates in the works the cumulative odds are very good. If you don't hear that from many experts, recall that bureaucrats have to pull their punches and CYA in public. Personally my planning assumptions are to get through the next year and then worry about economic recovery.

Moderna shared more good news today...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24F2SW

Phase 3 of around 30,000 people testing the Moderna vaccine starts at the end of the month. Hoping this comes through for everyone...

July 14 article: Merck CEO Frazier says COVID-19 vaccine hype a 'grave disservice' to the public:

https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccine...vice-to-public

From what I extrapolated in an article, day 1 is first injection, day 29 is the 2nd injection. Then two weeks after the second injection they’ll know if it’s working. So if it starts August 1. We should theoretically know by mid-September.

In terms of whether or not that will save us all in terms of an aviation industry collapse, should the vaccine even work? I don’t think so. Especially if it won’t be available until 2021. Without more government funding, most industries/people won’t make it till 2021 if we keep the world like this until then.

That’s just something that I’m not understanding. The furthest along vaccines aren’t going to be available within 6 months if they even work. Better get more government funding ready to get us that far.

Some of those obstacles are artificial in nature. Anything a big pharma CEO says in public is not a public service announcement... it's a self-service announcement. You just don't know what his angle is.

That doesn't necessarily make him wrong, but I'd probably look at the big picture... lots of people who also know what they're doing are spending billions, and their goal is certainly somewhere around year-end, because somebody else might eat their lunch if they take too long.

Once a vaccine is approved, by whatever mechanism, governments will be willing to spend many billions to expedite production if the private sector can't go it alone.

Well said. This is what I keep in mind when I hear some pharma CEO claim "a vaccine is coming soon."

Anything a big pharma CEO says in public is not a public service announcement... it's a self-service announcement. You just don't know what his angle is.

True, but there are other vaccines that the government is already producing (around 100 million doses) just so that they'll be available in case they are effective. So if this one is showing so much promise, maybe they'll do the same and start production now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/us-g...s-vaccine.html

It could also be they are way behind in development of something that is going tot have a lot of customers.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-a...15-p55c8s.html

All 45 people in phase 2 produced anti bodies.
Ph 3 starts July 27.

This url indicates the numbers of subjects generally used in human vaccine studies:

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-b...uation-rotarix

it’s generally tens of thousands per branch of the study. Not 15.

From the article:

The 1st experimental COVID-19 vaccine in the US revved up people's immune systems just the way scientists had hoped. The vaccine will undergo its most important test later around July 27: a 30,000-person study.

No phase one is well under 100 which what these results are from. If give does to thousands of people and they have delayed reactions that is a cluster. Next one will have 30000 volunteers in a double blind study.

somebody call me when we have a US approved vaccine. Especially call me when it is available to soccer moms at CVS and Walgreens, and is reimbursable by insurance (or even free).

especially call me if the announcement of said vaccine is NOT made by a CEO or marketing department

I know nothing of Israeli news outlets but what do y'all think of this article?

https://www.israel21c.org/downgradin...e-common-cold/

Denny

It's on the Internet, it's gotta be true...

Open it up!

Sounds like another clinical trail to try. It doesn’t seem like it has been tested in humans.

That site has so many pop ups it reminds me of a jack-in-the-box

seems like every pharma company is in some "trial phase" of a "possible vaccine"

good luck to all of them

Astrazeneca reports encouraging progress in trials...

Of note, two-pronged immune response.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...scientists-say

Isn’t this how those Zombie movies start?

There could be a perfect vaccine released tomorrow, but, as others have said, it might not change much. Here's a link to an article that says 50% of Americans would be unwilling to take the vaccine. Apparently the minimum vaccination level we would need is 75%, ideally 85%. The widespread lack of trust in our institutions and the rampant spread of conspiracy theories about the virus is perhaps more ominous than the virus itself.

A retired pathologist of my acquaintance, one with 40 years of experience in virology and infectious disease, explained the vaccine development process to me at dinner last Tuesday night. In detail. Long story short, it's a year to develop in the lab. Then two years to verify safety. Then another two years to verify effectiveness. Five years total. On a fast track.

He and his wife are in their mid 70's and he said there is no way in HE// they will subject themselves to a vaccine developed in less than a year.

You write as if you believe that is a distinctly American problem. It is not:

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-va...any/a-54146673

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...vey-finds.aspx

https://tass.com/society/1164499


https://www.politico.eu/article/why-...y-go-to-waste/

The fastest any vaccine has ever been developed and put into use - to my knowledge - is the Ebola vaccine. It is not generally used, but given only to wall off outbreaks (ring immunization) of Ebola which even with good medical care has about a 25% death rate and without good care as high as 90%. It is a pretty miserable immunization to take but appears fairly safe:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise.../ebola-vaccine

however “community resistance” to these immunizations “remains a problem.”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...al-drc-region/

I never said it was. This is a global phenomenon probably more related to the internet and the ability for people to take shelter in ideological bubbles that become increasingly detached from reality rather than any cultural predilection.

So it’s Al Gore’s fault? :D

It all makes sense now.

lol

in other news, I found a new mission for ALPA to undertake to support pilots afflicted with Covid19

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilyea.../#7537f5a14d9d

#pot4pilots
maybe that guy i knew in college was right that "a doobie a day keeps the doctor away"

His problem is he's retired and his experience is 40 years out of date. But whether to get vaccinated is of course your choice.

:rolleyes:

They roll out the ganga as the miracle cure for just about anything. Greatest snake oil ever (since they took coca out of soda pop).

You don't even need a medical excuse to toke these days, it mostly legal now.

Actually, my greatest concern right now is that my employer will bow to the mob again and require vaccination just as they required a mandatory Covid test recently.

A swab up the nose to mollify customers is one thing. Injecting an unproven and minimally tested substance into your body in something else entirely.

I have said from the beginning it would not surprise me especially with the lack of control we have in the US for other countries to require it for a US passport holder to enter. So while your company may not require you might have to stay strictly domestic. (if possible.)

Plan on it. You don't have to get a vaccine.

But businesses, organizations, schools, and employers don't have to let you in their facility either.

But right now they seem on track to complete all normal regulatory testing of any vaccine. They can shortcut financing, red tape, and manufacturing, but it does not appear that anyone has any appetite to deploy a vaccine before phase III trails are complete. That might have been different if the bug had a fatality rate of 30% and a billion people caught it.

Phase IV is done after deployment and consists of surveillance of end users, just in case anything pops up. So you could consider early users of any vaccine or pharma to be part of the evaluation process. I'm still willing to go to work, which carries some slight but non-zero risk, so personally I'm willing to take a new vaccine which will carry lower risk than covid.

Biology is complex, so a new vaccine *might possibly* have unexpected side effects... but there's no particular reason to think it will either. Your airplane might crash too, but if you had reason to suspect a problem you'd just go back to the gate.

Hes also never seen a vaccine that modern medicine has wanted more badly than this one. Every major government is throwing billions for a vaccine.

The Ebola vaccine has proven very effective.

Are they throwing the billions at the time machine? It takes TIME to make sure a vaccine is SAFE and EFFECTIVE. DNA sequencing tech has certainly shortened the development of vaccines. But you have to WAIT for clinical trial results if you want to make sure there are no unintended consequences to the vaccine.

They are waiting. See my post above.

I was gonna say so far only Russia and China have said f.... it and given authorization before phase 3.

???

For values of effective I guess.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...al-drc-region/



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01950-0

But it was an epidemic that involved immunizing only 300,000 people, and even so it took two years. And another epidemic of Ebola has already broken out on the other side of the country. And - despite the problems they had with vaccine acceptance, people are a lot more willing to be vaccinated against something with a 50% mortality than they are against something with a 0.5% (or less for the young) mortality.

I’m not against immunizations and certainly hope that we come up with an effective, safe, and cheap vaccine. But I don’t think it will be the panacea everyone seems to assume it will be. Public acceptance and the sheer logistics of any mass immunization process are serious issues that will need to be overcome, even with a perfect vaccine.