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Old 04-19-2021, 03:40 AM   #2391  
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Does anyone remember the analysis that was put out last year about how much of the total pax traffic is international? We might be nearing a plateau until those pax start traveling again in earnest.
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Old 04-19-2021, 04:57 AM   #2392  
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We might be nearing a plateau until those pax start traveling again in earnest.
I saw this morning that United is advertising nonstop flights to Croatia, Greece, & Iceland this summer. Hoping that means good news on the horizon, re: international travel.
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Old 04-19-2021, 08:26 AM   #2393  
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I saw this morning that United is advertising nonstop flights to Croatia, Greece, & Iceland this summer. Hoping that means good news on the horizon, re: international travel.
Watch Portugal be next. Many of these economies heavily dependent on tourism wonít be able to loose another summer season.
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:21 AM   #2394  
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Originally Posted by spirited View Post
Sunday 1.57 mm
-471 K, -4.7% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.36 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 67%, 1wk 58%, 2wk 60%

Now that we are not comparing to Easter, I would hope/expect that the week over week numbers start heading up into +ve territory again. WOW was positive the entire time from February thru Easter
Seasonality suggests a pullback until Memorial Day but things may be different this time.
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Old 04-20-2021, 09:58 AM   #2395  
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Can't post the link but Scott Kirby of United quoted saying business travel is at 20 percent of 2019 numbers. That stings especially if other carriers are hit the same.
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Old 04-21-2021, 07:58 AM   #2396  
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1,082,443

Lowest number in 40 days. Yeah, I know, Tuesdays arenít great ever, but itís still depressing this late in the game.

But then it is about a 1200% improvement YOY, so there is that...
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:05 AM   #2397  
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1,082,443

Lowest number in 40 days. Yeah, I know, Tuesdays arenít great ever, but itís still depressing this late in the game.

But then it is about a 1200% improvement YOY, so there is that...
Itís always going to ebb and flow. We figured there would be a slight cool off after Easter. Folks predicted doom and gloom in January and Feb after Christmas which never materialized. I think a large part of this is that capacity is holding steady right now. May 1 we will see another airline open up middle seats which adds a good chunk more seats. Weíre seeing more planes industry wide being reactivated, so more seats are coming. Canít sell what you donít have.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:07 AM   #2398  
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Tuesday 1.08 mm
-327 K, -3.3% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.35 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 49%, 1wk 57%, 2wk 58%

As for seasonality - that should be covered in the YOY comparison.
This is the 2nd sequential Tuesday to strike below 50% - else, haven't been below 50 since Feb
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:11 AM   #2399  
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Tuesday 1.08 mm
-327 K, -3.3% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.35 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 49%, 1wk 57%, 2wk 58%

As for seasonality - that should be covered in the YOY comparison.
This is the 2nd sequential Tuesday to strike below 50% - else, haven't been below 50 since Feb
Seasonality is good for trends but hard to nail day to day. People will travel to events, seeing family for Easter etc. But by and large there isnít still a major draw for people to travel to other places with capacity and event limits. Airlines all talking hiring, so they see the longer term bookings and trends far better than previous day pax #. Itíll be a slog getting back to full normal, and not a straight path up, but every time doom has been predicted itís worked out here. I remember very well how January and February would be a massacre.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:15 AM   #2400  
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I think a large part of this is that capacity is holding steady right now. May 1 we will see another airline open up middle seats which adds a good chunk more seats. We’re seeing more planes industry wide being reactivated, so more seats are coming. Can’t sell what you don’t have.
Except two days previously the number was a half million higher. The aircraft that carried those pax didn’t just disappear off the face of the Earth. Granted, some could be scheduling, even training related personnel shortages, and yes, there is always variability. But even so, it’s a noticeable retreat if it’s the lowest number in 40 days.

And no one is predicting doom. Merely making an observation.
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