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Old 04-19-2021, 09:21 AM
  #2391  
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Originally Posted by spirited View Post
Sunday 1.57 mm
-471 K, -4.7% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.36 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 67%, 1wk 58%, 2wk 60%

Now that we are not comparing to Easter, I would hope/expect that the week over week numbers start heading up into +ve territory again. WOW was positive the entire time from February thru Easter
Seasonality suggests a pullback until Memorial Day but things may be different this time.
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Old 04-20-2021, 09:58 AM
  #2392  
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Can't post the link but Scott Kirby of United quoted saying business travel is at 20 percent of 2019 numbers. That stings especially if other carriers are hit the same.
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Old 04-21-2021, 07:58 AM
  #2393  
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1,082,443

Lowest number in 40 days. Yeah, I know, Tuesdays aren’t great ever, but it’s still depressing this late in the game.

But then it is about a 1200% improvement YOY, so there is that...
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:05 AM
  #2394  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
1,082,443

Lowest number in 40 days. Yeah, I know, Tuesdays aren’t great ever, but it’s still depressing this late in the game.

But then it is about a 1200% improvement YOY, so there is that...
It’s always going to ebb and flow. We figured there would be a slight cool off after Easter. Folks predicted doom and gloom in January and Feb after Christmas which never materialized. I think a large part of this is that capacity is holding steady right now. May 1 we will see another airline open up middle seats which adds a good chunk more seats. We’re seeing more planes industry wide being reactivated, so more seats are coming. Can’t sell what you don’t have.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:07 AM
  #2395  
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Tuesday 1.08 mm
-327 K, -3.3% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.35 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 49%, 1wk 57%, 2wk 58%

As for seasonality - that should be covered in the YOY comparison.
This is the 2nd sequential Tuesday to strike below 50% - else, haven't been below 50 since Feb
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:11 AM
  #2396  
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Originally Posted by spirited View Post
Tuesday 1.08 mm
-327 K, -3.3% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.35 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 49%, 1wk 57%, 2wk 58%

As for seasonality - that should be covered in the YOY comparison.
This is the 2nd sequential Tuesday to strike below 50% - else, haven't been below 50 since Feb
Seasonality is good for trends but hard to nail day to day. People will travel to events, seeing family for Easter etc. But by and large there isn’t still a major draw for people to travel to other places with capacity and event limits. Airlines all talking hiring, so they see the longer term bookings and trends far better than previous day pax #. It’ll be a slog getting back to full normal, and not a straight path up, but every time doom has been predicted it’s worked out here. I remember very well how January and February would be a massacre.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:15 AM
  #2397  
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Originally Posted by PilotBases View Post
I think a large part of this is that capacity is holding steady right now. May 1 we will see another airline open up middle seats which adds a good chunk more seats. We’re seeing more planes industry wide being reactivated, so more seats are coming. Can’t sell what you don’t have.
Except two days previously the number was a half million higher. The aircraft that carried those pax didn’t just disappear off the face of the Earth. Granted, some could be scheduling, even training related personnel shortages, and yes, there is always variability. But even so, it’s a noticeable retreat if it’s the lowest number in 40 days.

And no one is predicting doom. Merely making an observation.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:31 AM
  #2398  
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Originally Posted by Myfingershurt View Post
Does anyone remember the analysis that was put out last year about how much of the total pax traffic is international? We might be nearing a plateau until those pax start traveling again in earnest.
that’s what OAG numbers would suggest, and those numbers are horrible:



Where Americans Are Going

Travel restrictions tied to the coronavirus crisis have cut off many of the most-visited foreign destinations for US business and leisure travellers, with international flights now accounting for less than 9% of airline capacity, according to OAG.

Americans seeking a getaway have stayed close to home, led by Mexico — the only top-five country to raise its ranking from before the pandemic — and other spots in Latin America or the Caribbean, based on commerce department data collected by lobby group Airlines for America. Major countries such as Canada, the UK, Japan and Germany have seen a visitor drop of 90% or more from the US. The UK’s Virgin Atlantic Airways, which specialises in transatlantic flights, said on Wednesday it doesn’t expect to be back at full capacity until October or November.

The plunge in traffic over the Atlantic and the Pacific reflects in part the demise of corporate travel. Tickets sold for business trips are down 78% from 2019 levels, compared with the 47% average drop for all segments, according to travel data firm Airlines Reporting Corp.

By contrast, ski trips during spring break helped bring smaller markets in the mountain states of Montana and Wyoming back to within 20% of pre-pandemic levels. Airport passenger counts in California dropped 63% for the month of March, while New York and New Jersey were down 66% and 53%, respectively. During normal times, John F Kennedy International, Newark Liberty and Los Angeles International are among the busiest US airports for overseas travel.

Traffic in states with big domestic hubs — such as Texas, Florida, Illinois and Georgia — fell somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. These days, instead of ferrying high-dollar business flyers to London or Tokyo, US airlines are left to focus on how to entice more budget-conscious leisure travellers.

To energise its international business, United is trying to tap Americans’ pent-up wanderlust with new seasonal flights to Iceland, Greece and Croatia. American, which is cutting back flights to South America amid the worsening pandemic in Brazil, is bolstering the domestic schedule — for example, with service to Orlando, Florida, from eight US cities this summer.

“If you’re a US airline, you’ve been able to recover some of that lost international demand by people being attracted to go to the southern states, to points like Florida, or Arizona or if they could do California,” OAG’s Grant said. While there are positive signs, “it still requires access to major international markets to solidify the recovery we’ve seen today”.

Bloomberg News.
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/wo...-do-with-less/
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:32 AM
  #2399  
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Originally Posted by PilotBases View Post
It’s always going to ebb and flow. We figured there would be a slight cool off after Easter. Folks predicted doom and gloom in January and Feb after Christmas which never materialized. I think a large part of this is that capacity is holding steady right now. May 1 we will see another airline open up middle seats which adds a good chunk more seats. We’re seeing more planes industry wide being reactivated, so more seats are coming. Can’t sell what you don’t have.
Care to post what doom and gloom people were talking about in Jan and how they were wrong? If anybody was wrong it was people like you who said we would be at 1.5 mil by last Thanksgiving.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:06 PM
  #2400  
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Originally Posted by spirited View Post
Tuesday 1.08 mm
-327 K, -3.3% - total last week over week prior
Average Daily last 7 days 1.35 mm

vs. 2019-
Day 49%, 1wk 57%, 2wk 58%

As for seasonality - that should be covered in the YOY comparison.
This is the 2nd sequential Tuesday to strike below 50% - else, haven't been below 50 since Feb
You do some great stats, however, did I miss Monday?? If I did, my bad....
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