TSA Numbers
08-18-2020, 05:24 PM
#331
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Originally Posted by SierraAlpha
I say we’ll be over 1 million by next weekend
seriously though that would require a gain of 137,000 on this Sunday over last (numbers last seen around the 4th of July spikes). I’m not sure we even get the 37k needed to break 900k, so I’ll call this weekend‘s peak 880,000. Still a gain wow in raw numbers and % of last year, but not expecting anything outside the 0.5 to 2% wow % of last year growth we have been seeing the past 14 days.
900k barrier falls on the 30th.
08-18-2020, 05:50 PM
#334
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Originally Posted by senecacaptain
do 900k, 1M projections account for the historical late August peak then deterioration ?
I think we are there now. Maybe we hit 875k but Aug 25ish, it goes south
I think we are there now. Maybe we hit 875k but Aug 25ish, it goes south
08-18-2020, 09:20 PM
#336
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Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 169
Originally Posted by Soxfan1
For me it does. I see last year the slight decline started 2 weeks ago. This year we are still in a slight climb. I see us as having exactly 3 weeks left till peak (the day or two after Labor Day). I see 900k easy. I’m not ready to call what the peak in raw numbers will be just yet though, but it will be in days around Labor Day I think. Could it go up, down or flat line after that? Things move too fast to make that call just yet.
08-19-2020, 02:46 AM
#337
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 391
Originally Posted by Joebob21
my thought is that even though peak season is coming to an end, those that can afford travel and have not yet will book a trip for later in the year than historically “normal” maybe an early season ski trip, flying to grandmas back east for Christmas or similar. Here’s to hoping...
08-19-2020, 03:23 AM
#338
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Just to get out ahead of the Tuesday panic that always happens when casual onlookers freak out at how much disparity there was from Sunday and Monday into Tuesday, remember last week was 559K/2,306,000/24.3%
My prediction:
Raw numbers fall WoW but less than they did last year, giving us a slight growth YoY.
554k/2,220,000/24.95
My prediction:
Raw numbers fall WoW but less than they did last year, giving us a slight growth YoY.
554k/2,220,000/24.95
08-19-2020, 04:48 AM
#339
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Originally Posted by Soxfan1
Just to get out ahead of the Tuesday panic that always happens when casual onlookers freak out at how much disparity there was from Sunday and Monday into Tuesday, remember last week was 559K/2,306,000/24.3%
My prediction:
Raw numbers fall WoW but less than they did last year, giving us a slight growth YoY.
554k/2,220,000/24.95
My prediction:
Raw numbers fall WoW but less than they did last year, giving us a slight growth YoY.
554k/2,220,000/24.95
566k/2,247,xxx/25.2%
We are not yet seeing the fall drop that we did last year. We dropped almost 60k wow last year. Up 12k this year.
08-19-2020, 04:49 AM
#340
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 391
Originally Posted by Soxfan1
Just to get out ahead of the Tuesday panic that always happens when casual onlookers freak out at how much disparity there was from Sunday and Monday into Tuesday, remember last week was 559K/2,306,000/24.3%
My prediction:
Raw numbers fall WoW but less than they did last year, giving us a slight growth YoY.
554k/2,220,000/24.95
My prediction:
Raw numbers fall WoW but less than they did last year, giving us a slight growth YoY.
554k/2,220,000/24.95
565,946 / 2,247,446 / 25.1% YOY
Edit: You beat me to it.
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