TSA Numbers
#41
Here’s a smoother chart. You can see the trend was down but has reversed. Looking at the shape of the weekly cycle you can see that things will be up for this last week of July. My question is how much of this weekly shape trend is business travel? Any? How will this all be impacted when school starts?
#42
Here’s a smoother chart. You can see the trend was down but has reversed. Looking at the shape of the weekly cycle you can see that things will be up for this last week of July. My question is how much of this weekly shape trend is business travel? Any? How will this all be impacted when school starts?
The degree to which schools are going to be open seems to be varying significantly. Here in CLT, (all of NC?) the schools will be entirely online after a couple of weeks of in-person orientation type class. Where as just south of the border I believe SC schools will be full-time in person.
We have decided, all things considered, to homeschool for the coming school year with our children.
#43
Here’s a smoother chart. You can see the trend was down but has reversed. Looking at the shape of the weekly cycle you can see that things will be up for this last week of July. My question is how much of this weekly shape trend is business travel? Any? How will this all be impacted when school starts?
For a lot of districts it’s no foregone conclusion...
#44
I have a series of charts I publish for my pilot group; this is/was one of the questions that we've attempted to address. The table below shows 2019 data, compiled from .gov transportation data sources, of passenger counts for each month of 2019. Using April as a base month, I computed a coefficient by which to adjust the others months by. You can use this data in conjunction with the TSA data to help answer your question about what might happen when school starts etc.You'll notice that there is a definite drop in September, but I don't know that there is any data that separates leisure vs. business travel during that period. Lots of people have opinions and guesses, and without any data to support those positions, that's all they are.
#45
I have a series of charts I publish for my pilot group; this is/was one of the questions that we've attempted to address. The table below shows 2019 data, compiled from .gov transportation data sources, of passenger counts for each month of 2019. Using April as a base month, I computed a coefficient by which to adjust the others months by. You can use this data in conjunction with the TSA data to help answer your question about what might happen when school starts etc.You'll notice that there is a definite drop in September, but I don't know that there is any data that separates leisure vs. business travel during that period. Lots of people have opinions and guesses, and without any data to support those positions, that's all they are.
I also find the international percent interesting when considering our recovery. Roughly half the flying is feed for international and international. Looking at being 25 percent I think we can say roughly 25 percent of flying is domestic business.
#46
The coefficient isn’t really month specific; it could use any month as the base month. What it really does is allows a glimpse of how current numbers might be affected by monthly trends seen in a normal year.
Said another way, adjusted for seasonality the “flatness” seen right now would actually be a decline if we normalized data across the year.
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
7-26: 27.8%
7-27: 27.4%
7-28: 26.5%
also, travel searches for various cities, to include Las Vegas, and Orlando, have declined substantially compared to the # of searches a few months ago. These are likely "leisure" searches as most large companies have agreements/contracts and travel officers for corporate travel. LINK: https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends
7-27: 27.4%
7-28: 26.5%
also, travel searches for various cities, to include Las Vegas, and Orlando, have declined substantially compared to the # of searches a few months ago. These are likely "leisure" searches as most large companies have agreements/contracts and travel officers for corporate travel. LINK: https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends
#48
And of course this year’s ‘school start’ may be greatly different from most school starts...
#49
That’s assuming a lot based upon a comparison of only one year (2019). Certainly Jan -Feb appear to be down months - down 12 and 17% from base month and the drop off from August to September appears real - but the fact that one year ago we witnessed a roughly 4% rise between Jun and July that we aren’t seeing now - it just seems a little soft calling it a decline when we don’t really know what the year to year variance is preCOVID. Could just be noise.
And of course this year’s ‘school start’ may be greatly different from most school starts...
And of course this year’s ‘school start’ may be greatly different from most school starts...
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