Arturito

European cases are at an all time high because they werent testing ******* in march/april (except maybe Germany). The rare tests they had were used on patients already being rushed to the ventilator. The number of cases was very close to the number of death. The actual number of cases is estimated to be 8-9-10 times the ones reported by the Public Health organization.

Fast forward 6 months, the testing kits finally arrived, labs ramped up their process and now they have a clearer picture of what is actually happening in that second wave. Yes cases are increasing because end of lock-down around june/july for most countries and people going on vacation and now back at work with kids back in school. Despite a constant rise in cases over the last 6 weeks, the death curve stays quite flat or barely moves.

The real indicator of what the virus is doing is the % of positive tests. (which is slowly rising but no spike yet)

BoilerUP

That sounds remarkably like what has happened in the US since June, when media emphasis seemed to shift from hospital capacity and deaths to 'number of cases'.

Arturito

Here is the only chart that really matters : positivity per test per inhabitants. Raw numbers thrown here and there are only good for headlines and clicks.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...nal-comparison

Play with the region selector to have a better view.
A couple notes from the graph:
- Germany is clearly the superbowl winner here, by far.
- France and Spain are on a slippery slope. A couple more days/weeks are the same rate and they may see a real second wave.
- Italy's testing capacity is still dog c*ap for a first world country.
- USA is in the middle of the pack so as one reknown scientist would say : "Not great, not terrible"

Phins2right

And where is Sweden? hmmmmmm.

Also, the deaths are not tracking the cases. That's a win.

Furthermore, you need to understand the difference, and its significant when looking at a viral outbreak, between Case and Infection Rate. Deaths are counted from infection rates - not cases. Case may never turn into an infection. To be an "infection" you have to be hospitalized. Even Faux-chi messed that one up back in March. It never really was corrected.

So all this banter about increased cases means nothing. Look at the deaths, that ties to infection rates, which shows that this thing is and has been burning itself out. The "second" wave they think they are seeing is normal given their draconian lockdown procedures. Yes, more cases, but not infections. It was predicted this would happen back in May. I posted articles up if you had cared to read them.

Sweden did it right. We will learn that for the future.

Oh yes and don't forget the reason we are wearing masks to being with:

Bigapplepilot

Is there a book, or pamphlet, say ‘Covid-19’ for Dummies? That explains all this to the average Joe. I recently bought a book called ‘A Planet of Viruses’ which is good. But I’m looking for something that breaks down explanations of cases, infections, IFR, Rs, etc. Just for maybe a layperson to be more knowledgeable at the next dinner party(one that of course respects social distancing).

flydrive

I unfortunately disagree. We will not learn anything, or will learn the wrong lesson. Our leaders certainly learned how easy it is to assert control over a scared populace.

kingairfun

After reading numerous articles on this new wave in Europe one thing stood out (or didn't).. Sweden isn't mentioned too much (or at all) in this new wave... hmmmmmm

Fresh

Sweden did it right.

https://apple.news/AcUvCDLqXTxePEWjILeHbTQ

CantTaxiToACS

At the moment, it does look light Sweden did it right. The thing that media always pointed to as a way to discredit them was the higher death rate.

And now the USA is higher on the list of Deaths per 1M pop.

The USA is far worse in terms of health though (see accurate fat photo above). So it was a good play for Sweden but I’m not sure if it would’ve went so well here. One thing I’m sure of is that it was a blatant display of media corruption putting down Sweden constantly because they wanted the chaos and lockdowns to continue. My $0.02

Excargodog

in fairness, Sweden (not quite as badly as NJ and NY) mismanaged their nursing homes, and freely admit they screwed up there. Those deaths are about 40% of the country’s total.

But yes, once they tightened up on protecting the most vulnerable, their stats are as good as anybody in Europe and better than most.