Originally Posted by AntiPeter

What makes science different than other forms of theory is that it ideally uses explanations that are testable. Medicine and health are more difficult to measure than "hard sciences", but there still is a lot of usable data that is available, certainty is tough when human behavior is put into the mix, but at the very least we can establish probabilities and correlations.

The current consensus public policy was based on the premise that only a few of us (at most) were already immune to COVID-19 and that the disease was much more fatal than it is. The current public policy was based on model forecasts that were inaccurate.

We know now that about 1/2 of us were already immune to COVID-19 (1/2 don't even show an immune response in the form of measurable antibody production). We also know that there is at least a functional or imperfect immunity response from those that are either primarily immune or develop immunity -- they no longer transmit the virus to others.

If masks made a big difference then the places in the US that don't wear masks would have much higher hospitalizations and death rates than those that don't. Mask use varies even intrastate, so counties that have less mask wearing can be compared to those where mask use is more pervasive. Do they?

If public policy made a big difference, then the places with the most stringent lockdowns, most stringent restrictions on business would have much less hospitalizations than those that don't. Do they?

We know that obesity is the number one factor for an adverse COVID reaction (there is more of a correlation than even elderly age). Has their been a public policy initiative undertaken to reduce obesity in the 6 months COVID has spread?

There are reasons why Dr. Fauci used data from April in his most recent Congressional testimony (6 months obsolete).

There are reasons why Dr. Redfield from the CDC says 90% of Americans are still susceptible to COVID when we know now 50% of Americans were never susceptible to COVID to begin with.

There are reasons why Fauci doesn't put the deaths into context, that 1/2 of the people that die from COVID are already within one year of death by other natural causes and are morbidly obese. 1/2 of the deaths are from nursing homes and hospice.

There are reasons why Dr. Redfield doesn't acknowledge the country with the least amount of COVID case increase and the country with the least amount of COVID death is now Sweden.

There are reasons why the media and self described "experts" no longer talk about Kawasaki syndrome in kids, ICU overcapacity or infectious fatality rate. Because if we looked at an ever increasing amount of data, we would realize the sources that we trust are full of elephant dung.

We know that heart disease, even with pervasive treatment is about 4-5 times more deadly than COVID. Why is heart disease "strongly encouraged" in our culture vs. self-destructive chaotic and arbitrary decisions in attempt to prevent a disease (COVID) which is much less fatal?

As more and updated data become available scientists change their theories to adapt to an ever confident reality. The truth becomes more and more apparent.

People that don't change their minds ever, Fauci, Redfield and Cuomo, for example, aren't very good scientists. They are even worse liars.

Obese people don’t do well with COVID and the vaccines currently in production aren’t going to help them much either:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/h...gtype=Homepage

Perhaps COVID isn’t the problem after all. Perhaps it’s obesity?

Originally Posted by RhinoPherret

You might want to rethink your statement "We know now that about 1/2 of us were already immune to COVID-19 (1/2 don't even show an immune response in the form of measurable antibody production)." very closely because here is an excerpt from a recent scientific study:

"It takes a few days to obtain results for tests of T-cell activity against the coronavirus, compared with as little as 90 minutes for antibody tests, but a few groups have been testing on a small scale. They have found T-cells that react to the coronavirus in 10 to 50 per cent of people tested.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that up to half the population is immune to covid-19, says Alessandro Sette at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California. Some of these studies, including one by Sette and his colleagues, looked at blood donations given before the current pandemic, to test for pre-existing immunity to the coronavirus. Others examined samples from people with covid-19.

The most likely explanation is that the pre-pandemic blood samples that tested positive were from people who had previously caught milder coronaviruses, such as the ones that cause colds, and their T-cells are reacting to the one that causes covid-19. It is probable, although by no means definite, that such people would get less sick with covid-19, but they could still get infected – and pass it on to others, says Sette."

Originally Posted by RhinoPherret

You might want to rethink your statement "We know now that about 1/2 of us were already immune to COVID-19 (1/2 don't even show an immune response in the form of measurable antibody production)." very closely because here is an excerpt from a recent scientific study:

"It takes a few days to obtain results for tests of T-cell activity against the coronavirus, compared with as little as 90 minutes for antibody tests, but a few groups have been testing on a small scale. They have found T-cells that react to the coronavirus in 10 to 50 per cent of people tested.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that up to half the population is immune to covid-19, says Alessandro Sette at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California. Some of these studies, including one by Sette and his colleagues, looked at blood donations given before the current pandemic, to test for pre-existing immunity to the coronavirus. Others examined samples from people with covid-19.

The most likely explanation is that the pre-pandemic blood samples that tested positive were from people who had previously caught milder coronaviruses, such as the ones that cause colds, and their T-cells are reacting to the one that causes covid-19. It is probable, although by no means definite, that such people would get less sick with covid-19, but they could still get infected – and pass it on to others, says Sette."

Originally Posted by Mesabah

Yes, but what is the rate of transmission between people with T-cell memory? They may be able to infect others in isolated cases, but we know from closed system examples(e.g. Diamond Princess), that they don't participate in the pandemic.

Originally Posted by Trappy

The problems with the healthcare system are the cost related, not quality of care. America is also too fat and our culture is unwilling to stigmatize obesity.

Originally Posted by Duffman

Do we know that?

I'd believe they're less contagious because they probably aren't sneezing and coughing as much (hence asymptomatic), but people who're asymptomatic, by definition, do have the virus, so they can probably spread it, which means they participate in the pandemic.

What we're all hoping for is that instead of waiting for a fast-tracked vaccine, we may be able to purposely get sick with a coronavirus cold instead, which would hopefully make COVID19 more survivable, sort of like a low tech vaccine, because that's kinda what it is. But we don't know enough about the cold viruses to know if they'd actually provide any protection; might be like wearing a kevlar vest to stop a 50 cal or it might be as effective as a vaccine.

Originally Posted by TaylorPilot

That is awesome! Congrats. What was your secret?

Originally Posted by Speed Select

Speaking of colds, I’ve been religiously masked-up, social distancing, washing my hands, all the precautions. And I caught a cold this week. What gives?!

Latest number driving policy at my “other job,” says cloth mask effectiveness is only 25-30%. Mask wear is now inconsequential in determining “close contact.”

I’m so sick of hearing politicians say that had we ALL worn masks for 6 weeks (or the number du jour), the pandemic would be long over. BS. Viruses are going to virus. Period.