9mikemike

And the point being?

Aero1900

There are already 3 vaccines from different companies that all have over 70% efficacy rates. The vaccine is going to work if people take it

DeltaboundRedux

Alas, that's a big if. Lots of scaremongering on all sides of the aisle "I won't take it if party X is recommending it" . The individual "smart" play is to let others take it to establish herd immunity but not get it for yourself. Too many people do this, and it doesn't work, obviously.

Also reading that it's a two sequence vaccine, and a higher percentage than normal of people will be getting high fever, muscle aches, and other flu-like symptoms that will last a couple of days.* The concern is that many people who get the first shot will find the experience so unpleasant they won't take the second one.

Unless social media clamps down [hard] on anecdotal stories about people complaining on the immediate effects of the vaccine, the 10% of symptom suffers stand a chance of scaring the other 90% so much they won't take it. Alternately, some kind of universal "vaccination pass" for free movement/employment, which brings up all kinds of privacy issues.

There's light at the end of the tunnel, but I don't thing we're out of the woods yet. Predict 2022 before things start getting back to normal.

*(this happens to me every year I get a vanilla flu shot; my first shingles vaccine shot sent me to the minute clinic with a sustained 104+ fever, and I'm dreading the booster shot in 2 months)

rickair7777

I don't think anti-vaxx BS is going to get as much traction on this one. Governments will be advocating strongly (possibly paying bounties to get stuck), and the consequences of not getting vaccinated will be real. Karen can usually ride her high-horse in the 'burbs with no actual consequences, but on this one she and the brood will likely be severely restricted from key pillars of soccer-mom life. I think principle will fall by the wayside... especially after some times passes and vast numbers of other people have served as the guinea pigs (assuming there are no post-deployment safety issues, which is not absolutely assured).

Also while some governors talked about banning federally-approved vaccines for what is obviously blatant political purposes, I think the election has removed their incentive to do that. Especially once they realize that they need a functioning economy in order to tax anybody.

No privacy issues whatsoever, it will be voluntary (at least in the US). If you don't participate, then you simply opt out of some aspects of social life. Get a telework job, home-school the kids, shop on amazon... you can wait thing out. In five years this thing will probably have dwindled to the point where vaccination will be less of an issue (kind of like the flu today).

Qantas and other international airlines are already talking about it...

Qantas Expects to Require Vaccine for PAX

My Aunt had shingles, it's worth the vaccine (and the booster) to not go through that. My first shot was mild, booster in two months, see how that goes. My Dad says his booster was a non-event, so hopefully I inherited whatever gene did that for him.

bigboeings

I think after the initial flurry of vaccines together with those who have already gotten it.. The politicization of it will be over and will be back to normal. a virus with 99.97% survival rates will be hard pressed to keep front and center news. Spelling the end of this fiasco.

CaptDave

A vaccine with a 95% efficacy rate for a virus with a 99.975% survival rate? People are stupid. This will eventually be forced on everyone on the planet. This is about control.

TransWorld

Most people need to have a basic statistics course in propagation. If the average person infects more than one, the population sick grows. If the average person infects less than one, the population sick dwindles to extinction of the disease.

I have heard the spread factor for COVID-19 is about 2.5 with no protection. (As an example, if it is 2.0, the first generation is 2, the next is 2x2 = 4, then 4x2=8, and 8x2=16 people infected. So on.)

If, by vaccine and immunity by exposure, it was 0.5, as an example, here is what happens. 1 x 0.5 = 0.5, the second generation is 0.5x0.5 = 0.25 cases, then 0.25x0.5 = 0.125 cases for every 1 in the first generation. Rapidly it goes away.

For reference, Measles has a spread factor of 5.

Oma4545

What you fail to understand is that rampant, widespread disease will kill our industry. See the past six months

DeltaboundRedux

I believe "The Great Reset", "Build Back Better", or "The Green New Deal" plans generally frown on carbon emissions generated by mass movement of people using petroleum powered aircraft. (Private aircraft, of course are ok, because [reasons]) The long term vision, as I understand it, will be a world that is much more carbon emissions friendly.

A non-inoculable disease will kill our industry, but longer term (10-20 years) I'm not so certain it's a viable industry anyway. At least in Western countries. I certainly wouldn't choose a non-military pilot career path if I were 20 right now, that's for sure.

Hoping for these to vaccines pan out, however, and quickly.

Phins2right

R0 has been around 1.0 since July