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“Flu Has Disappeared Worldwide”

Old 04-29-2021, 11:10 PM
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Default “Flu Has Disappeared Worldwide”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-has-disappeared-worldwide-during-the-covid-pandemic/

“The U.S. saw about 600 deaths from influenza during the 2020-2021 flu season. In comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were roughly 22,000 deaths in the prior season and 34,000 two seasons ago.“

This seems to contradict both common claims that covid is “just a flu” and that “mitigation efforts were ineffective/useless”

For reference, we are averaging over 600 covid deaths every day.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:29 AM
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Originally Posted by FlewUnderWires View Post
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-has-disappeared-worldwide-during-the-covid-pandemic/

“The U.S. saw about 600 deaths from influenza during the 2020-2021 flu season. In comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were roughly 22,000 deaths in the prior season and 34,000 two seasons ago.“

This seems to contradict both common claims that covid is “just a flu” and that “mitigation efforts were ineffective/useless”

For reference, we are averaging over 600 covid deaths every day.
I don’t think the US has ever seen flu deaths that low, for a season. Something sure seems fishy.
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Old 04-30-2021, 02:20 AM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
I don’t think the US has ever seen flu deaths that low, for a season. Something sure seems fishy.
Why fishy? It's the same here in Europe. No large events. Many people work from home. Most people wear medical grade masks indoors and try to keep their distance form others. I'm not surprised the flu virus which is typically less contagious than this corona virus hasn't had much of a chance this winter.
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Old 04-30-2021, 05:04 AM
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Originally Posted by germanaviator View Post
Why fishy? It's the same here in Europe. No large events. Many people work from home. Most people wear medical grade masks indoors and try to keep their distance form others. I'm not surprised the flu virus which is typically less contagious than this corona virus hasn't had much of a chance this winter.
From what I've read while NPI's may have reduced influenza levels, scientists say the can not explain why the flu has "declined" so much.

Something sure does "seem fishy". Keep wearing that mask though, and stay in your basement. Something bad can happen at any moment...

It would be interesting data to compare how many influenza tests were administered this flu season vs. previous seasons. My guess is there weren't many flu tests administered this season. There were "other" reasons of death for political and social purposes.
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Old 04-30-2021, 05:08 AM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
I don’t think the US has ever seen flu deaths that low, for a season. Something sure seems fishy.
I think it makes a certain logical sense; I'll detail why below. But I don't watch the talking heads on cable news, so I'm excited to see everyone shout me down in a bit.

First, many people people who are moderately ill during the pandemic are quarantining at home, so there's 'less' flu that's showing up in the surveillance models, in sum total. It's unclear how much that has to do with the focus on COVID and how much has to do with less transmission of influenza, but the end all be all is we aren't seeing influenza show up in data.

Second, many people in white collar professional jobs have been working from home for the greater part of a year. This may shock our German friend, but I can say from my and my friends and family's previous experience in professional work - no one cared about influenza unless you were so ill you couldn't get out of bed, or you were high risk for some reason. But now if you are in the office and you're sick, you're being looked at like you're the reincarnation of Typhoid Mary. I've definitely come into work moderately ill with the flu several times in the last 5 years, and I was expected to do so. Seems insane in hindsight.

Finally, R (transmissibility) appears to be higher for COVID than for seasonal flu, meaning that COVID spreads easier. I've seen some speculation that the more transmissible disease, combined with pandemic mitigation measures and individual behavior changes, is causing COVID to 'displace' the flu, but I've not seen any studies that speak to this. At any rate, all those pesky mitigation measures and vaccinations actually seem to be working according to this - COVID's R value in the US is down around 1: Visualizing COVID-19 Spread Metrics (covid19-analysis.org)

Primer on R0/Rt from those filthy liberal pricks at Nature: A guide to R — the pandemic’s misunderstood metric (nature.com) Don't worry, I know only GermanAviator will read this stuff, it's mostly for him.

Influenza R0/Rt, somewhere between 1 and 2.1, depending on the study and the year: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature - PubMed (nih.gov)

COVID R0/Rt, somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 during the early parts of the pandemic, before the newer, sexier, 'probably more transmissible' variants, but maybe as high as 5.7: High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis - PubMed (nih.gov)
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Old 04-30-2021, 05:29 AM
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Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post

Keep wearing that mask though, and stay in your basement. Something bad can happen at any moment...
Don't be silly. I don't even have a basement and I have been out of the house for work and play throughout the pandemic. I have been wearing a mask in public indoor spaces and have generally respected distancing guidelines. Once I've had my two shots I'm not going to voluntarily wear my mask anymore.
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Old 04-30-2021, 06:34 AM
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It’s easy to reduce the number of flu deaths to an all time low when you stop testing for the flu for the better part of a year.
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Old 04-30-2021, 06:41 AM
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Originally Posted by FNGFO View Post
It’s easy to reduce the number of flu deaths to an all time low when you stop testing for the flu for the better part of a year.
Or for that matter any upper respiratory flu death that can be diagnosed as possibly Covid-19 for higher reimbursement rates. Or intestinal where the patient has some congestion and could be diagnosed with primary Covid-19 with secondary flu. Higher rates of money are a powerful motivator.
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Old 04-30-2021, 07:23 AM
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To everyone saying it is all a testing conspiracy:

Then why is the same trend being experienced worldwide?

Why do you think healthcare providers should waste time and resources to test for influenza if a respiratory patient tests positive for covid when they were admitted? Two years ago if you went to the hospital and tested positive for flu would you have them stop and check for SARS?

Do you really think that every doctor in every hospital in the entire world is actively falsifying medical records to inflate covid numbers? Even every volunteer and every drive through testing site?

Lastly, can you provide any evidence? Because I can prove that hundreds of thousands of flu tests have been performed in the United States in the past few months with only a 0.1% positivity rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Not to mention nearly 200 millions Americans have received a flu vaccine this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-distribution.htm

I honestly don’t see anything “fishy” in the data.
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Old 04-30-2021, 07:36 AM
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Why is it hard grasp the idea no one, yes world wide, even cares about the common flu? The absolute singular focus is in COVID. All testing, government announcements, media fear mongering and such made people forget to check and see if they got the flu.

Sure being inside and all the hand washing helps, but basically zero common flu being stopped? Not fishy at all just a change of focus and mass hysteria over the “deadly” COVID virus caused all of us to forget there was another virus out there.
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